coinbase spot BTC has traded at a discount to offshore exchanges for 51 consecutive days, longest streak on record. last two times this happened: march 2021 before the 50% may crash, november 2021 before the bear market. this time it's running alongside $12b in IBIT outflows over
BREAKING: President Trump announces new US Military strikes on Iran and threatens that Iran "will no longer exist" if there comes a point when "we are no longer able to be reasonable."
U.S. Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted strikes tonight on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's drone attack on M/T Kiku.
The explosive growth in Micron Technology's profits in the latest quarter is good news for shareholders—but comes at the expense of the AI companies to which it sells fast-memory chips
uniswap generated $1.07b in trailing 12-month protocol fees with zero flowing to UNI holders because of SEC overhang. CLARITY Act floor vote is scheduled before august recess with 60%+ odds on kalshi and rising. if it passes, the legal barrier to activating the fee switch
WSJ: "China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race" China's Zhipu AI, has matched Anthropic's Mythos in certain benchmarks, such as exploiting cybersecurity bugs. Well, that's not good. Instead of blaming the administration which did the correct thing…
The US conducted a round of attacks on targets in Iran, while the Islamic Republic launched strikes against eight key American military infrastructure sites in the Middle East, as both sides accused each other of violating a ceasefire.
🔴ELIMINATED: Abd al-Rahman Maher Abd al-Karim Ziyada, commander of a Nukhba terrorist cell in Hamas' military wing who infiltrated Israeli territory during the October 7 Massacre. In an additional strike, Kamal Mohammad Hamdan Najjar, Head of the Tunnel Unit in the Khan Yunis
The Japanese government is expected to call for 'appropriate' monetary management in its basic policy guidelines, according to a document seen by Bloomberg, in an apparent bid to dissuade the Bank of Japan from further interest rate hikes
Google has placed limits on Meta's use of its Gemini AI models because it could not provide as much computing capacity as the social media company wanted, the Financial Times reported.
Ukraine struck the Slavyansk-na-Kubani oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region and 'reached' a refinery in the Yaroslavl region overnight, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
Binance; Greek MiCA withdrawn; zero pending EU applications; 72-hour deadline; $800M-$1.2B annual EU revenue; Coinbase + OKX + Kraken beneficiaries; July 1 hard deadline
binance withdrew its greek MiCA application and has zero pending applications in any EU jurisdiction. 72 hours until the hard deadline. no extensions, no grace periods. $800m-$1.2b in annual EU revenue is being force-redistributed to coinbase, OKX, and kraken starting july 1.
France has recorded 1,000 excess deaths during the blistering heatwave sweeping Europe, the public health agency said on Sunday, warning that the true figure was likely to be higher.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act; 1M BTC target; 2.709M BTC on exchanges (7-year low); 37% of exchange supply locked permanently; bill text July 4; procedural vote July 17
strategic bitcoin reserve act targets 1m BTC. there are 2.709m BTC on exchanges right now, a 7-year low. the US government is proposing to lock up 37% of current exchange-available supply permanently. bill text drops july 4, procedural vote july 17.
Just when it looked like emerging-market bonds would catch a break from falling energy prices, along came Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to spoil the party.
Austria is pushing the EU to consider hosting Anthropic within its borders to counter US efforts to block foreigners from using its most advanced AI models.
Google pays SpaceX $920M a month and still can't supply Meta. The company is spending over $180B on compute this year and rationing access anyway. Its own cloud customer was told to use fewer tokens.
Anthropic's Claude Tag now competes with Slackbot and Agentforce inside the platform Salesforce paid $27.7B for. Salesforce owns 1% of Anthropic and is paying it $300M a year to build the thing that makes Slack optional.
We desperately need an American open source champion to counter the tide of closed source companies ginning up fear in our politicians to capture the market. I've got high hopes for these smart folks. On a long enough timeline open will sweep away the darkness.
Apple $AAPL is seeking clearance from the Trump administration to buy memory chips from CXMT, a Chinese company blocklisted in the U.S. due to its alleged ties to the Chinese military - Financial Times
It should be 100% obvious that there will soon be mythos level models on cyber security that are open and available to anyone. As a byproduct of this, alternative tech stacks will emerge that also drive more economic value and control away from the US's tech stack. This is what
Firmus Technologies will build its first data center project in Indonesia as part of a partnership with Nvidia that's expected to win the Australian AI infrastruture startup as much as $30 billion.
Iran again launched drone and missile attacks Sunday targeting Bahrain and Kuwait in response to new U.S. airstrikes against the Islamic Republic, and threatened a "complete halt" in negotiations to end the war if Washington continues its attacks.
President Donald Trump is on the brink of learning whether the US Supreme Court will bless two of his most audacious gambits, his bids to oust a Federal Reserve governor and roll back automatic birthright citizenship.
Volatility among tech stocks is historically elevated: The gap between the Nasdaq 100 volatility index, $VXN, and the volatility index, $VIX, is up to 12 points, the highest in at least 23 years. The difference has more than tripled since the start of May.
Over the last week or so, the $SPX is down ~2% (black) AI-related stocks (red) have slumped ~4.52%. This is ~50/75 of the S&P 500. Non-Al stocks (orange) have soared ~2.31%. This is ~425 to 450. Is this market telling us it is bullish for the economy if AI stocks get crushed?
Oman has reportedly told European allies that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz could face new navigation or environmental service fees, per Reuters
Grok 4.5, based on our 1.5T V9 foundation model, with Cursor data added in supplemental training, is now in private beta at SpaceX & Tesla. Early evals show performance close to, perhaps exceeding Opus. RL is continuing to significantly improve the model, and the Grok Build
Sol is our new flagship and a step function better than GPT-5.5. Terra delivers performance competitive to GPT-5.5 at 2x lower cost. Luna is our most cost-efficient model, delivering strong capability at our lowest cost. Together, the GPT-5.6 family gives people and developers
The Trump administration's effort to unwind decades of sanctions as part of a deal to end the war with Iran has created a head-spinning situation for governments, banks and other companies
"No matter what industry does, shale production is headed lower at any price. Limited inventory left." — David Ramsden-Wood (early Permian shale investor)
David made a fortune buying up underappreciated Permian acreage with his partners early in the shale boom. Now he is saying that US shale inventory is rapidly depleting, likely leading to lower production. This is eye-catching and thought-provoking.
IBIT cumulative inflows $60.77B; net assets $44.42B; gap $16.35B (Q1 2025 buyers at $82K–$110K); realized P/L ratio < 1.0 for first time ever; $714M daily realized losses
IBIT pulled in $60.77b in cumulative inflows. net assets are $44.42b. that $16.35b gap is not fees, it's the collective L of buyers who entered BTC between $82k-$110k in Q1 2025. realized profit/loss ratio just fell below 1.0 for the first time. $714m in daily realized losses vs
A Supreme Court ruling has cleared the way for the Trump administration to end temporary protected status for Haitians and Syrians. One of the states that could face the biggest impact is Ohio, where more than 10,000 Haitian migrants have settled. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine
Very bullish. The next ceasefire might send us to 8k [QT @michaelh992: Israeli media claim the next round of US-Iran talks has been canceled due to recent fighting]
US households are "fighting" inflation with debt: Total consumer credit surged +$25 billion in March, to a record $5.14 trillion. This marks the largest monthly increase since March 2025. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$10 billion, to $1.34 trillion
"When anybody can build anything, the taste to know what to build becomes the whole game." — @ajambrosino ... Codex usage has 6x'd since February, reaching over 5M weekly active users, and nearly 100% of OpenAI's employees use the Codex app regularly (and not just the engineers).
US-Iran agree to halt strikes; talks planned this week; Axios citing US officials; June 28 2026 — material update following mutual strikes and Trump 'Iran will no longer exist' threat
Ukraine proposes mutual truce restricted to Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia; Putin: 'no plans to rescue Kyiv government'; priority: air defense system production boost; Russian TV interview
We had a new paper come out on arXiv a few weeks ago, primarily led by Maxime Griot, I just had a small role helping him on this paper. Anyway, we had been meaning to get a blog post out for this but Florian already found the paper lol [QT @xeophon: wanted an argument that summarized traces are okay, but only raw CoT is really useful for distillation thanks to @iScienceLuvr to write a paper about that, confirming the hypothesis]
President Donald Trump's preferred candidate for U.S. Senate in Louisiana is looking to clinch the GOP nomination Saturday and deliver another win for the president, who has sought to replace Republicans who cross him with hand-picked loyalists.
Australia's headline inflation is expected to peak around 4.25% mid-year, lower than previously forecast, as falling oil prices help reduce inflationary pressures, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said
Indonesia was once seen as a darling of investors. But fears of corruption and policy missteps are raising concerns about the country's economic future
Let me get this straight, this guy is building a pharma company and developing a drug for Alzheimer's FROM HIS GARAGE?! Insane! You can just do things!! And AI + lab automation played a HUGE role: 'All of the in vitro screening was performed by an OpenTrons OT-2'
It isn't just that AI assistance was used in doing this proof, it is that AI was used to create a gigantic machine checkable formalization of the proof. The ability to create huge machine checkable proofs is going to have consequences far outside of mathematics.
Investors continue to rely on professional financial advisers for their final investment decisions, even as artificial intelligence becomes more widely used in the initial stages of research, according to a survey by HSBC. The survey, which polled around 10,000 affluent and...
I agree with this take. Derive is one of the few options protocols with a PMF which even outpaces Deribit (biggest options CEX). With a fresh new chart since april (ex lyra), it only takes 1 or 2 headlines to create fomo once people catch up on it. Too bad $DRV liquidity is bad
Indian markets are showing signs of recovery, but volatile oil prices, a delayed monsoon, and uneven stock valuations could eat into those gains. Four financial experts point to investment opportunities in an otherwise nervous market.
India advised citizens who are planning to undertake the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra pilgrimage in Tibet to ensure they have all the required Chinese visas and entry permits before the journey, after reports of pilgrims stranded in Nepal.
Opus 4.8 reasoning nearly stopped at highest setting; Opus 4.6 performed normally on same prompts; daily user observation
观察来源为AI领域知名人物且每日使用该模型，可信度高于普通用户反馈。具备受控对比基准（同提示词4.8 vs 4.6），提示Anthropic可能发生了静默模型更新或服务端异常。目前无官方响应，需关注是否出现更大范围复现。
Did something happen to Opus 4.8 today? First time I've seen this happen (and I use it daily): it almost totally stopped thinking, even at highest reasoning setting. And answered terribly. I repeated same prompts with Opus 4.6, and it worked great.
ansem deployed ANSEM on pump fun and hit $21.8m market cap in 12 hours with $24.3m in 24h volume. volume exceeding market cap at 112% ratio. this is the first major crypto influencer to successfully tokenize himself at scale and the structure is fascinating.
Sydney posted its weakest weekend home auction clearance rate in more than six years as higher interest rates and property tax changes dampen activity and weigh on prices, after years of rapid gains
Pakistan's security forces have foiled a militant attack on a camp in Karachi Saturday night, killing three assailants and capturing one injured attacker, according to government statements
Downing St has become a graveyard for political ambition. With an economy constrained by debt, can Andy Burnham succeed as prime minister where others like Keir Starmer failed?
Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March... And why Gemini got super nerfed. $GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints. Google's CEO said from last earnings computing
Heat wave is hitting the US starting Monday. The map is Wednesday's projected highs. Yellow is 90s, red is 100s. Just in time for the knock out round. The hydration break is going from a commercial gimmick to a matter of survival.
In the future, the past will be closer. [QT @daveg: Decoding Herculaneum scrolls will double our our knowledge of ancient Greece and Rome. The paradox of technology, in the future the past will be closer.]
"The campaign I'm running is not particularly partisan." @MishalHusain asks Steve Hilton about his political journey, from advising UK Prime Minister David Cameron to running as a Republican candidate for California governor.
IP token was shilled by VCs and many prominent figures, OTC desks at $13.67. Project delivered nothing of value. Currently trading at $0.311 which still equals to $319M FDV, and it's about to get a fresh new chart with DATA ticker, don't fall for their games
An artificial-intelligence bust, inflation and fiscal stress are among the most alarming threats to global prosperity at present, the Bank for International Settlements warned
AI firms paid to kill rules. Now they're begging Washington for them. OpenAI shipped its newest model to 20 partners, and executives call the whole thing worse than anything Biden proposed.
China can endure a further deterioration — or even a freeze — in economic and trade ties with the EU if talks are treated as a mere formality, according to Yuyuantantian, a social-media account affiliated with China Central Television
Uganda's army chief, the son of long-serving president Yoweri Museveni, ordered the country's main independent media group to halt operations, after accusing it of biased reporting
Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher) - covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics.
Wave of the future. Private. Secure. Either you own your intelligence or it owns you. It's not innovative/next-gen to slap vertically integrated models into existing SaaS spy stacks. It's the surveillance economy model squared. We've got to smash it with this generation.
I'm running three autoresearch Codex agents working on different research directions on the same problem. One agent notices there are other experiments running on the GPU cluster and cancels the runs from the other two agents because they "steal GPUs"
Singapore's main opposition Workers' Party retained Pritam Singh as secretary-general despite his recent legal convictions for lying to a parliamentary committee.
There's also a record share of *Americans* who are 70 and older. [QT @charliebilello: A record 33% of household wealth is now held by Americans that are 70 years of age and older.]
The largest wind farm in US history started up this month in New Mexico. It'll be America's last landmark wind project for years, as the industry grapples with a myriad of headwinds.
A small plane that crashed into the Beijing's tallest skyscraper on Friday has exposed a vulnerability in the Chinese capital's controlled airspace, prompting questions over safeguards around politically sensitive locations.
Data by digital information provider The Block analyzed by Pew Research Center shows how swiftly prediction markets' global trading volume has shot up to almost $25 billion as of April. The numbers also reveal that the meteoric ascent happened largely on the back of sports
Just back from the Philippines. One of the most exciting digital asset markets in SEA right now, jumping to 4th globally in TRM Labs' Country Crypto Adoption Index. Their regulators get it. Collaborative, forward-thinking, focused on outcomes: consumer protection, innovation,
For years, younger Americans have been more optimistic about the job market than older Americans, even through the depths of the Great Recession. But in an abrupt shift, a poll released finds young people's confidence has plummeted over the past two years — while their elders
Zohran Mamdani said he believes Tuesday's state primaries, where the slate of progressive candidates won, show that American voters are looking for a "new kind of politics."
In my experience, all model routers underestimate the difficulty of non-math/coding tasks and assign them too little intelligence. This is worth addressing, as non-verifiable tasks (innovation, marketing, qualitative analysis) often benefit the most from using "smarter" AI models
NEW: At a Fort Polk training exercise in Louisiana, a U.S. Army commander reportedly used attack drones & C4-packed robots to clear a breach before troops moved in.
This combinatorial complexity is why model agnostic learned auto-routers like @FactoryAI can win [QT @theo: Vs Claude: Fable 5 (low/mid/high/xhigh/max/ultracode), Opus 4.8 (same tiers), Opus 4.8 [1m context] (same), Sonnet 4.6 (low/mid/high/xhigh/max), Sonnet 4.6 [1m]]
Noam Brown (OpenAI researcher); 'plateau is actually really far out these days'; well-scaffolded GPT-5.5; 'Singularity has stopped having a ceiling and started having a horizon'
Welcome to June 28, 2026. The Singularity has stopped having a ceiling and started having a horizon. OpenAI's Noam Brown notes the plateau 'is actually really far out these days,' with a well-scaffolded GPT-5.5 able to think
AI is reshaping how institutional investors work: ~52% of institutional investors now primarily use AI for research, according to a Barclays survey of 410 fixed-income investors. This is followed by hedge funds, at ~44%, which primarily use AI to process and analyze large datasets.
AI access is becoming the new blunt instrument in geopolitics. @levie on what happens if model access becomes a lever: "A year ago, I wouldn't have put blocking access to an AI model on the board of possible moves. Now it is."
Nigeria's antitrust commission said pump prices for fuel aren't dropping fast enough in comparison to the sharp decline in oil prices, warning of a potential crackdown against a market dominated by Africa's richest person.
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, giving President Donald Trump a win after he backed her to replace GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy.
1 week away from first $1m in revenue. $1m in 125 days since launch. ftUSD holding stable earning ~13.27% on USDC/USDT on Ethereum, ~6% on USDC/USSD on Sonic. Pure onchain yield. Only @flyingtulip_
The anti-data-center psyop tearing through the soft pliable minds of instagram viewers right now will have catastrophic consequences for American prosperity if we let it propagate
DISMANTLED: An underground Hezbollah terror complex in the area of Majdal Zoun, within the Security Zone in southern Lebanon. The underground complex was constructed using technology and expertise provided by the Iranian terror regime. The tunnel route was 200+ meters long
The Richmond Fed chief was heartened by a rapid decline in gasoline prices in his district as the price of oil fell following a recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran
China's AI playbook: kill OpenAI and anthropic with free great models. Make it free. Then use cheap electricity to export compute as well. Currently the blocker is chip but Hauwei would catch up soon. Imagine a world where instead of paying hundreds of billions to OpenAI and
AI:AC hypothesis; USA built 80GW new energy generation for AC buildout in 1970s-80s; best proxy for country AI energy infra capability; 4 technologies driving future energy globally
AI:AC hypothesis is a solid hypothesis, as it's probably the best proxy for a country's ability to build out new energy infrastructure. USA built 80GW of new energy generation for the AC build out in 70s and 80s. Globally there are 4 technologies that will keep driving
🚨 You know you're in a bubble when… A traditional cyclical value stock like Caterpillar goes parabolic and starts getting valued like an AI growth name. CAT the king of yellow diggers tied to construction and mining is surging on demand for its power generators, gas
$INTC Lip-Bu Tan: Bottleneck investor "The investment side, I ways look at where is the bottleneck? What are you trying to solve? For example, I invest in companies like Credo $CRDO or Astera Labs $ALAB, is this interconnect becoming the bottleneck? Because speed becomes more"
Andy Burnham; Greater Manchester ex-mayor; first major speech post-announcement; 'lift Britain back up'; shift power from London; Keir Starmer successor race
The former Greater Manchester mayor will set out how he would "lift Britain back up," in first major speech since confirming his intention to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister
ENS market cap $168.7M; DAO treasury $400M+ liquid; Nick Johnson self-delegated 3.3M ENS to ensteward.eth; ~50% voting supply vs 1.4M avg turnout; 200K ENS via Coinbase 3 days pre-proposal
ENS market cap is $168.7m. ENS DAO treasury holds $400m+ in liquid assets. nick johnson just self-delegated 3.3m ENS to ensteward.eth, roughly 50% of voting supply, against 1.4m average turnout. 200k ENS moved through coinbase to that address 3 days before a proposal to transfer
Prediction markets are booming. They also face a widening legal battle with US states and criticism over alleged user insider trading. Here's how they got so controversial