I wrote this on April 26. Iran is running out of oil storage, and shutting down oil production is extremely damaging (true). However, Iran has one more 'card' to play: dump 2 million barrels/day into the Persian Gulf, creating an ecological disaster?
Another U.S. intel assessment undermines the Trump administration's claims about the success of the Iran war: 'The war has degraded Iran's military capabilities, but not destroyed them, according to US intelligence reports. CNN previously reported that US intelligence assessed...'
We evaluated an early version of Claude Mythos Preview for risk assessment during a limited window in March 2026. We estimated a 50%-time-horizon of at least 16hrs (95% CI 8.5hrs to 55hrs) on our task suite, at the upper end of what we can measure without new tasks.
The Labor Department reported Friday that unemployment held steady in April and that the U.S. added 115,000 jobs, almost double what analysts expected.
[QT @hamptonism: DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng owns 90 PERCENT of the company at a $50B valuation… He's personally contributing 40% of the $7B round himself.]
PYUSD went from $340m to $3.4b supply in a year and AWS just launched wallet services for AI agents using it as default settlement. $301m burned on ethereum in april alone. that's not idle supply, that's real settlement cycling through. 80% held by a single entity. paypal created
Claude blackmail behavior; root cause: internet text portraying AI as evil/self-preservation; post-training 'not making it worse—but also not making it better'
[QT @AnthropicAI] We started by investigating why Claude chose to blackmail. We believe the original source of the behavior was internet text that portrays AI as evil and interested in self-preservation. Our post-training at the time wasn't making it worse—but it also wasn't making it better.
BREAKING: New satellite imagery shows a major oil spill off of Iran's Kharg Island, with reports estimating tens of thousands of barrels may have leaked into the Persian Gulf.
Goldman pushed back expectations for the US Federal Reserve's next two rate cuts by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027 as inflation proves sticky
Chinese energy imports fell sharply in April, as the near-halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz choked a vital channel for crude oil and natural gas
BREAKING: Israel believes a deal with Iran is unlikely and has told the US that any return to war must include strikes on Iran's entire energy infrastructure within 24 hours, per Israel's Channel 12. Several Arab countries are also reportedly in support of targeting Iranian
ZEC up 110% in 30 days, 4.9x relative strength vs BTC. two regulated US entities building infrastructure simultaneously. gemini (BitLicense holder, NYDFS regulated) launched ZEC credit card rewards creating persistent buy pressure on every swipe. foundry (30% of BTC hashrate, DCG
A tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from Qatar is attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which — if successful — would mark the country's first export out of the region since the Iran war began
The world has burned through oil inventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf, eating into the very buffer that protects against supply shocks
German drone startup Helsing GmbH may see its valuation jump to about $18 billion in a new financing round, up from about $14 billion implied in a fundraising last year, the Financial Times reported on Saturday
The war in Iran was supposed to derail the rally in US stocks and weigh on company outlooks, instead a blowout earnings season is providing fresh fodder for Wall Street bulls
Peter Magyar assumed power as Hungary's prime minister, officially ending Viktor Orban's 16-year rule and pledging to reverse the nation's autocratic slide and return it to the European mainstream
The UK will deploy one of its warships to the Middle East as part of planning for a European-led mission to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz once there's a stable ceasefire
Iran has still given no indication whether it will accept President Donald Trump's plan, sent on Wednesday, which proposes that the Islamic Republic reopen the waterway and the US end a blockade on Iranian ports over the next month
BREAKING: The semiconductor ETF, $SMH, posted -$2.3 billion in outflows in the week ending May 7th, the largest weekly outflow since the fund launched in 2011. This follows +$1.5 billion in inflows in the preceding week, the 3rd-largest on record.
Quantinuum IPO filed; Nasdaq ticker $QNT; Class A common stock; dual-class structure post-IPO; major 5%+ stockholder: Honeywell $HON; pricing terms not yet disclosed
Honeywell $HON backed Quantinuum has filed to go public through an IPO on the Nasdaq under the ticker $QNT. Deal details: Class A common stock offering (two-class structure post-IPO). Pricing terms not yet disclosed. Major existing 5%+ stockholders: Honeywell $HON
hyperliquid stock perps launched and immediately captured 50% of the platform's top 10 assets by volume. not over weeks. immediately. RWA volume tripled quarter over quarter. asian hours (8pm-4am ET) now drive 35-40% of equity perp volume on a platform that didn't offer stocks 6
The Trump family media group posted a net drop of $405.9 million in the first quarter, largely driven by unrealized losses in cryptocurrencies held by the company
3 large US 🇺🇲 hit Iran 🇮🇷 crude carriers spotted TODAY burning in E Jask Bay at 25.6139, 57.9483 Suezmax burning bad, firefighting boat near smoking good VLCC & fuel leaking from smoldering VLCC. Right in front of IRGC naval base.
The U.S. Naval blockade against Iran continues be to fully enforced. As of today, CENTCOM forces have redirected 58 commercial vessels and disabled 4 since April 13 to prevent the ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
Health officials say the risk of hantavirus to the general public remains low as they investigate an outbreak on a cruise ship that killed three and sickened several others. But concerns have emerged online about the ill passengers who were evacuated from the MV Hondius
This might be the most important part of the new Anthropic deal with SpaceXAI… Elon is now building a neocloud in a market that he dominates almost entirely. I expect we'll see more deals like this in the near future.
This has been a historic decade for markets: The S&P 500 is on track for a 20% return in 2026, which would mark its 4th consecutive year of double-digit gains. Since the start of 2023, the S&P 500 is now up a massive +93%. If this happens, it would mark just the 2nd stretch of
War in the Persian Gulf and new Chinese export restrictions have sent sulfuric-acid prices soaring and raised concerns about the availability of the world's most used chemical
Appreciate @greg_ip citing my analysis of AI contributions to GDP growth. And I agree with him: if growth in AI-related capex were to slow, it would be a headwind for sure but not an economic catastrophe. We might go from 2% real GDP growth to something closer to 1.5-1.75%.
SpaceX trademark 'SpaceXAI'; satellite-based data center services; orbital computing infrastructure; cloud computing + SaaS featuring AI for data processing
The Dyson Swarm supercomputer company [QT @SawyerMerritt: SpaceX has officially filed a new trademark application for the wordmark "SpaceXAI" The description says: "Providing satellite-based data center services and orbital computing infrastructure; cloud computing and software as a service (SaaS) featuring AI for data processing]
Three Israeli drone strikes on vehicles just south of Beirut on Saturday killed four people while a series of airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed at least 13, including a man and his 12-year-old daughter, state media and the Health Ministry said.
Prediction market cheating gets creative. An Israeli journalist was threatened for reporting news affecting the payout of a bet on Iranian strikes, writes Alex Goldenberg
BREAKING: Global physical gold-backed ETFs posted +$6.6 billion in inflows in April. European funds led, at +$3.7 billion, followed by Asia, at +$1.8 billion, and North America, at +$1.0 billion. This marks a sharp recovery from -$12.0 billion in outflows in March, the largest
The 🇺🇸 Government is now up ~$45 Billion on the Intel $INTC shares it bought in August 2025 [QT: The United States invested ~$8.9 Billion into Intel $INTC stock for 433.3M shares at $20.47 per share back on August 22nd, 2025. Intel stock closed trading on Friday at $124.91 per share. Those 433.3M shares are now worth $54.13 Billion.]
Trump 'very soon' Iran response; Rubio + Witkoff met Qatar PM Sheikh Mohammed in Miami; Qatar mediating US-Iran deal; Axios: no Iran response as of early afternoon Saturday
*US STILL AWAITING IRAN RESPONSE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SAT:AXIOS [QT @BarakRavid: Secretary Rubio and White House envoy Witkoff met today in Miami with Qatar PM who mediates in US-Iran negotiations on a deal to end the war.]
Maple exploited $290M; $800M withdrawals; loan book $800M→$1B same week; TVL +35.7% in 30 days to $2.1B; P/F 2.95x vs DeFi avg 5-10x; Ethena TVL -$10.9B since September (-74%)
maple got exploited for $290m, processed $800m in withdrawals, and grew its loan book from $800m to $1b in the same week. TVL up 35.7% in 30 days to $2.1b. trading at 2.95x price-to-fees while average DeFi sits at 5-10x. ethena lost $10.9b in TVL since september (74% drawdown).
Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy on Saturday warned that any attack on Iranian oil tankers or commercial vessels would be met with a "heavy assault" on one of the U.S. bases in the region and enemy ships, even as a tenuous ceasefire appeared to be holding.
BREAKING: We have obtained further information as Iran considers taking control of 7 undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. Under the new policy, "foreign operators" would be required to obtain permits to use these cables 2. This would include
A common trend emerging in larger enterprises is token budgeting as a major topic. As agents can do more and more long running tasks, and thus take vastly more compute, allocation of tokens across teams becomes a very real thing in the enterprise. Companies spend a meaningful
A Catholic diocese in New Mexico is in court opposing the Trump administration's effort to seize church property to construct more fencing along the southern border, accusing US officials of religious freedom violations.
Canadian real GDP growth came in at 0.2% monthly in February data released last week, with GDP up 1% total compared to this time last year. It's the fourth straight month of expansion, the longest streak since 2024 after a rocky path last year
Yield curve flattening despite significant trailing 3-month oil price increase; ARK: dominant narrative (dollar crash, deficits, recession) = 'almost the opposite' of actual data signal
One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy shock that is being monetized by the...
'Half a dozen game-changers in their own right, each of which could easily be a $1B+ startup on their own' — Palmer Luckey, Anduril co-founder; 4,252 likes
Anduril is so much cooler than people think Anduril is cool. You think Anduril is cool? Okay. Wait till you see the products we haven't even started to hint at. Half a dozen game-changers in their own right, each of which could easily be a $1B+ startup on their own.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the 12 regional Fed banks had agreed to a framework on how to standardize and centralize some functions, such as back-office operations
In Singapore's humming commercial real estate market, the stalemate between sellers and interested investors may be cracking. Bloomberg's Singapore Edition newsletter takes a closer look at the resurgence.
A three-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine announced by President Trump on Friday defused the tensions over a prospective Ukrainian attack on a Red Square parade in Moscow, but the deal appeared unlikely to set the stage for a comprehensive peace deal.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte hired a new lead counsel as he heads for a full-blown trial on alleged crimes against humanity charges before the International Criminal Court
Who wins and who loses from the application explosion? 'Winners are the infrastructure players. More applications means more demand for compute, benefiting Amazon, Microsoft and potentially Google. Losers are platforms not tied into building or hosting apps, with Meta the [most exposed]'
Very cool & immensely useful use of autonomous vision cameras. [QT @elonmusk: Tesla AI Vision deploys airbags before impact, which greatly reduces risk of injury or death. This comes for free on all new cars.]
Simultaneous $MU and $TSM flows back on March 31st, totaling $65M and $55M in premiums respectively. Over 30,000 contracts traded on the $MU 400c 6/18 and over 38,000 contracts traded on the $TSM 370c 6/18 - predominantly at the ask. The $MU position is now worth north of 1
S&P 500 Chart Breakdown Take a look at these textbook touches on the upper boundaries of the long-term rising channel. Multiple clean rejections off the parallel blue trend lines each one marked stretching back years. The price has ridden this channel higher, but every
A referendum passed by voters last month that was poised to transform Virginia's congressional maps, allowing Democrats to gain up to four House seats this fall, was struck down by the state's Supreme Court.
Dr. Marty Makary, a Make America Healthy Again advocate, has faced broad criticism from the White House, as well as pharmaceutical industry groups, over his handling of the agency that oversees drug and vaccine approvals.
China's export growth rebounded more than expected despite disruptions to shipping caused by the war in Iran, as trade volumes swell due to an investment boom in artificial intelligence
A cyberattack on the online education platform Canvas left students and teachers at thousands of schools scrambling, forcing some universities to delay final exams.
U.S. counterterrorism strategy memo released Tuesday; three threats: narco-terrorists, legacy Islamist terrorists, violent left-wing extremists; zero mention of right-wing extremist groups
The U.S. counterterrorism strategy, detailed in a memo released Tuesday, identifies three main terror threats, including narco-terrorists, legacy Islamist terrorists and violent left-wing extremists, but makes no mention of right-wing extremist groups.
"Nobody should feel good about what Virginia did. Nobody should feel good about what California did. But Texas went first," Ruth Marcus says. "Texas went first at the urging of Donald Trump."
Donald Trump's push to bring down drug prices in the US has rattled the world's leading pharmaceutical companies. Now, they're confronting a new menace as Germany seeks to plug a ballooning deficit in its public health-insurance funds.
Semiconductors power everything from AI to smartphones — but making them is a complex manufacturing feat. As supply chain risks mount and dependence on Taiwan comes into sharper focus, countries are spending billions of dollars to bring chipmaking closer to home.
Iran's record internet blackout is taking a heavy toll on private businesses, with owners and industry officials warning that it could lead to mass layoffs and closures
The ECB is carefully weighing its response to the Iran war and the impact on inflation to ensure it acts neither prematurely nor too late, Christine Lagarde says
Whenever I investigate a bug, I let codex recreate the exact state in an emphemeral crabbox, verify the bug, fix it, verify the fix. No messy state because local system might be polluted, and no slowdown because I run 10 sessions in parallel.
Keir Starmer's main leadership rivals went into local elections weighing a challenge against the PM. But some of them on increasingly shaky ground in their own constituencies.
Liberal leader Troels Lund Poulsen took over Denmark's coalition-building talks, dealing a blow to caretaker Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's bid for a third term
With companies spending more than ever on artificial intelligence, they are also tracking how employees use AI in unprecedented detail. Yet many CEOs hope, but still can't tell, if it's making workers more productive. "Almost every Fortune 500 is tracking overall AI usage," said
Former PM Gordon Brown was appointed UK special envoy on global finance as part of Keir Starmer's attempt to patch up rival factions in his Labour Party
Kenya; ~$1B revenue target; taxes on mobile phones + banking fees; fiscal deficit decade low
Kenya plans taxes on mobile phones and banking fees to help raise nearly $1 billion in revenue in an effort to trim the nation's fiscal deficit to its lowest in a decade and tackle debt challenges
More thoughts on $TMDX -- management continues to reiterate their goal of 20k cases by 2030... management has said that CHOPS (cold perfusion) was not part of that prior target... personally I think CHOPS can increase that case number by 10-20%... using the midpoint...
If you want BTC to be digital gold things are going your way. If you want BTC to provide lambo's and speculative generational wealth things are going very poorly. BTC vol is very low and trending low. Correlation to gold is trending higher.
Peekaboo 3.0 is live. Biggest release since 2.0. ⚡ Action-first macOS computer use 👁️ Unified screenshot + UI detection 🧩 Cleaner JSON across CLI + MCP 🛠️ Better snapshots I started this last year, but the models just weren't good enough. Now they are.
THIS IS WHAT 4 AI MODELS THAT ARE BEATING THE MARKET SO FAR IN 2026 OWN ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, and Gemini @ralliesarena gave a bunch of AIs $100K in the stock market starting in late November to see if they could beat the S&P 500 - This is what the leaderboard looks like
two years ago i started screenshotting @pontusab and @viktorhofte's work. two designers in stockholm. 14k github stars. no marketing team. midday looked cleaner than every finance tool i'd ever seen. their obsession: let builders to run their company, not the admin. agents are
Stocks have rallied so far so fast there's now a "massive deviation" between prices & their daily moving averages Technical analysis strongly suggests that the risk of a pullback, possibly as much as 15%, is now high warns @LanceRoberts
Japan may send government officials to Russia as early as the end of May to maintain communications with Moscow to support its companies that are still operating there, the trade ministry said in a post on X
Hungary's newly installed prime minister Peter Magyar called on the president to quit in a confrontation in parliament that sought to draw the line on 16 years of increasingly autocratic rule by Viktor Orban.
5.11% on USDC on Sonic 5.27% on USDT and USDT on Ethereum - No token incentives - No subsidies - No "points" - No looping - No leverage - No "unstaking period" - No "exit queue" - Instant redemptions & liquidity Defi hasn't reached its peak yet, there is so much more to explore
I think the broad equity market is in a bubble. I've not said this until two or three days ago. It is very common to assume when someone say there is a bubble that they mean it's the top. Those are two completely different
Ryan Cohen: "You look at eBay spending $2.5 billion to grow 1 million users. $2 billion in cost cuts between sales and marketing and corporate overhead — it's not a lot. And it's not something that's going to take a few years. It's something that is going to happen fast, fast,"
Ken Griffin: "What the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners, is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami"
This is how Micron $MU stock has performed every year over the last decade 2016: +55%🟢 2017: +88%🟢 2018: -23%🔴 2019: +69%🟢 2020: +40%🟢 2021: +24%🟢 2022: -46%🔴 2023: +72%🟢 2024: -1%🔴 2025: +240%🟢 2026*: +161.8% (So far)🟢
A Frontier Airlines plane hit and killed a pedestrian on the runway of the Denver International Airport during takeoff, airport authorities said, sparking an engine fire and forcing passengers to evacuate.
🎯DISMANTLED: An Islamic Jihad weapons production site and weapons storage facility in northern Gaza. The site had been used by the organization's production array, as well as by Hamas for the production of explosive devices and the storage of additional weapons intended to harm
Sweeping changes are coming for the U.S. Forest Service, which manages roughly a third of America's public land. The agency announced a dramatic overhaul of cuts, closures and consolidation. That's on top of the Trump administration's latest budget request that seeks to slash
If California's billionaire wealth tax passes, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang would pay $8 billion dollars, per MorePerfectUnion. His response: "I don't mind paying taxes."
Private credit has exploded into a $1 trillion market. Yet its resilience is increasingly being tested. Bloomberg Originals examines whether this massive boom is built to last and what comes next for one of finance's fastest-growing sectors
The future is here Personal AI is nigh [QT @pradeep24: tested out @antirez' ds4.c this morning. so impressive and delivers. on a M3 max, 128GB, stock ds4 settings: - 14–15 t/s at 62K pre-filled actual coding conversation - memory usage was flat during gen ~85GB res - disk cache is ~8GB for a full 100K context window - thermals were]
12 stocks in the S&P 500 have more than doubled so far this year Here are the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 so far in 2026 👑 Sandisk $SNDK +558% 🟢 🥈 Intel $INTC +239% 🟢 🥉 Seagate $STX +184% 🟢 Western Digital $WDC +179% 🟢 Micron $MU +162% 🟢 Lumentum $LITE +145%
Labour MP Catherine West; 'stalking horse' leadership candidate Monday; Andy Burnham supporters asked her to hold off; Burnham parliamentary seat uncertain
Labour MP Catherine West tells me she will put herself up as a "stalking horse" candidate on Monday morning, even though supporters of Andy Burnham have asked her to hold off. She fears there is no certainty that the Manchester mayor will get a seat in parliament and says the
In March, around 200,000 immigrants began losing their commercial driver's licenses, which are required to operate large vehicles like semi-trucks, buses and tractor-trailers. It's part of a series of moves by the Trump administration to limit who can drive those vehicles after
akash at $175m FDV with $5m quarterly compute spend, burn-mint equilibrium live and burning AKT from real ML workloads. render does GPU rendering at $1.5b FDV. akash does AI compute with NVIDIA integration, 100b tokens processed in april, and an 8.5x valuation discount to its
Prediction markets are booming. They also face a widening legal battle with US states and criticism over alleged user insider trading. Here's how they got so controversial
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is open to expanded trade with the US and Mexico in some industries, but will "invest heavily" in new markets and products if that fails
Codex for expenses [QT @reach_vb: Codex quite literally filed my reimbursements, downloaded invoices since the start of the month, updated the expenses spreadsheet and filled the actual form all by itself. Used Drive & Sheets plugin for state tracking Gmail plugin for tracking invoices Chrome extension for actual]
Humanoid robots can jump, dance and go viral — and they look impressive on camera. But despite massive investment, they're still struggling with the basics.
Co-sign. You can extend this out several more notches too. [QT @eladgil: People at major AI labs (using internal models) 3-4 months ahead of startup silicon valley engineers SV founders/eng 3-6 months ahead of NY NY founders/eng 6-12 months ahead of rest of world Most people have no idea how fast AI shifting as 1-2 years behind SOTA]
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday voiced confidence in a victory in Ukraine as he oversaw a military parade on Red Square commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II — a show that didn't include heavy weapons for the first time in nearly two