← 每日快讯

每日快讯 2026-04-02

本页是我们每日从公开信息流中筛出的值得留意的条目——它们是输入,不是结论,每条均注明原始出处。我们自己的判断见宏观与个股板块。

当日 549 条 · 永久存档,不回改

宏观 HIGH

美国消费者通胀预期飙升至6.2%

3月美国消费者通胀预期单月上涨0.7个百分点至6.2%,为2025年8月以来最高水平,也是继"解放日"关税冲击后2025年4月以来最大单月涨幅。

Consumer inflation expectations +0.7pp in March → 6.2%; highest since August 2025; largest monthly jump since April 2025 post-Liberation Day tariffs

通胀预期的急剧升温反映出市场对持续性贸易关税和伊朗战争引发供应冲击的双重担忧。这一数据出现在油价接近100美元、供应链压力加剧的背景下,预示美联储降息空间进一步收窄。

Inflation expectations are rising among Americans: US consumer inflation expectations spiked +0.7 percentage points in March, to 6.2%, the highest since August 2025. This also marks the largest increase since April 2025, following the "Liberation Day" tariffs.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

伊朗战争推动油价逼近百美元

受美以对伊朗军事行动持续影响,油价接近每桶100美元;特朗普表示美军可在2-3周内结束攻势后,油价有所回落。

Oil prices near $100/barrel; fell back after Trump's "two to three weeks" timeline comment Tuesday night

油价已成为伊朗战争风险溢价的直接晴雨表。特朗普关于提前退出的表态短期内压低了油价,但伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡强征通行费表明只要通道存在不确定性,高油价将长期维持。BYD 3月出口同比暴增65%进一步印证油价高企正加速全球电动车需求切换。

Oil prices also fell back toward $100 per barrel after President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that the U.S. military could end its offensive in two to three weeks.

@newshour ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

阿尔忒弥斯II发射,50年来首次载人绕月

NASA阿尔忒弥斯II号成功发射,4名宇航员将执行为期10天的绕月飞行任务,这是人类50余年来首次载人月球航行。

Artemis II launched; 4 astronauts; 10-day flight around the Moon; first crewed lunar voyage in 50+ years

阿尔忒弥斯II号的发射标志着美国载人深空探索的重大里程碑,各类账号从政治、科学、民族情绪等多个维度给予高度关注。此次任务将为阿尔忒弥斯III号载人登月铺垫基础。

We're going back to the fucking moon, that's why. [QT @libsoftiktok: Kid just SMOKED a CNN reporter outside of Artemis II launch: CNN: "Why do you want to be here?... Why do you love being a part of history?" Kid: "We're going back to the f*cking moon, that's why!"]

@pmarca ↗
美股 HIGH

亚马逊90亿美元洽购卫星集团Globalstar

据路透社报道,亚马逊正就收购价值90亿美元的卫星通信集团Globalstar进行谈判。

Amazon in talks to acquire Globalstar; $9 billion satellite group; per Reuters

收购Globalstar将强化亚马逊在卫星互联网领域的独立基础设施布局,与SpaceX Starlink展开更直接的竞争,同时为Amazon Prime及AWS提供全球覆盖的备用通信网络。

Amazon in talks to buy $9 billion satellite group Globalstar, per Reuters

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡过境船征收通行费

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队开始对过境霍尔木兹海峡的船只征收每桶石油1美元的通行费,需以人民币或稳定币支付,船运商须联系中间公司获取"秘密通行码"。

IRGC tolls: $1/barrel of oil on Strait of Hormuz transits; payment in Chinese Yuan or stablecoins; secret passcode required; per Bloomberg

伊朗对全球最重要石油通道的直接货币化是历史性地缘风险事件,每日约2000万桶的过境石油量意味着巨大的潜在勒索空间。以人民币和稳定币收费显示出伊朗在美元体系外构建结算网络的战略意图,并将对中国的金融关系进一步绑定。中文社交媒体分析人士指出,这远不只是"过路费",而是伊朗将霍尔木兹海峡武器化的制度化起点,美国单方面停火后海峡长期关闭风险将开始真正计价。

BREAKING: The IRGC is now charging tolls, with rates starting at $1 per barrel of oil, on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, paid in Chinese Yuan or stablecoins, per Bloomberg. The process includes: 1. To pass, ship operators must first contact an intermediary company

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗否认停火谈判,直接驳斥特朗普声明

伊朗官方声明否认通过任何中间人进行临时停火谈判,直接驳斥特朗普当日早些时候"伊朗总统请求美国停火"的说法;美国情报机构同日评估伊朗"目前尚未准备好达成协议"。

Iran denies any ceasefire mediation; Trump claimed Iran's President "asked the US for a ceasefire"; US intel assesses Iran "not currently ready to make a deal"

双方关于停火谈判的截然相反表述制造了极大的信息不确定性,加剧市场对冲突持续时间的分歧判断。伊朗强硬派公开表态"不会停战直至取得决定性胜利",且伊朗总统公开信中并未提及停火,表明停火前景极为渺茫。部分分析认为特朗普的停火声明更多是为当晚全国讲话造势。

BREAKING: Iran says no talks have taken place through mediators for a temporary ceasefire with the US and Israel. This morning, President Trump said Iran's President "asked the US for a ceasefire."

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

美国对钢铝产品征收25%-50%分层关税

美国将对精加工钢铝产品征收25%关税,对大宗商品级钢铝产品及几乎完全由这些金属构成的商品维持50%关税,另计划整体改革现行钢铝关税体系。

25% tariff on finished steel/aluminum goods; 50% on commodity-grade steel/aluminum and near-pure metal products; broader steel/aluminum tariff overhaul expected; per WSJ

分层关税结构表明美国试图在保护基础金属生产的同时对下游制造业给予相对宽松处理。但50%的大宗商品关税将直接冲击依赖进口原材料的汽车、建筑和机械行业,并可能触发贸易伙伴反制措施。

Tariff of 50% will remain in place for commodity-grade steel and aluminium products and goods that are almost entirely made of the metals - WSJ.

@financialjuice ↗
Crypto HIGH

AI投资DAO ai16z因Drift漏洞损失2亿美元

AI主导的投资DAO ai16z在Drift永续期货协议遭受2亿美元损失,占整个漏洞损失总额的70%,根源为单一管理员密钥漏洞,该DAO从未对其交易的底层基础设施进行安全审计。

ai16z lost $200M on Drift; single admin key vulnerability; 70% of total exploit; perpetual futures; AI-led DAO with no infrastructure audit

此次事件暴露了AI驱动投资策略的核心盲区:算法优化收益却忽视底层基础设施的安全审计。集中于单一协议、单一市场类型的高度集中风险与零安全审查的组合,是典型的尾部风险失管案例,对整个AI+DeFi赛道的合规标准提出严峻拷问。

ai16z lost $200m on drift. single protocol. single market type. perpetual futures. that's 70% of the entire exploit, concentrated into one admin key vulnerability. an AI-led investment DAO that optimized returns without ever auditing the infrastructure it was trading on.

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto HIGH

Binance上线能源期货,最高百倍杠杆

Binance今日推出石油及天然气期货交易,杠杆倍数最高可达100倍,在伊朗战争引发大宗商品价格剧烈波动的背景下上线。

Binance launches oil and natural gas futures trading; up to 100x leverage

在油价接近100美元、地缘风险溢价高企之际,Binance推出大宗商品衍生品将吸引加密交易者参与能源市场投机,标志着加密交易所向传统大宗商品衍生品市场的进一步渗透。100倍杠杆的极高风险也可能引发监管机构关注。

TODAY: BINANCE LAUNCHES OIL AND NATURAL GAS FUTURES TRADING WITH UP TO 100X LEVERAGE

@scottmelker ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国消费者通胀预期3月飙升至6.2%

美国消费者通胀预期3月大幅上涨0.7个百分点至6.2%,为2025年8月以来最高水平,也是2025年4月"解放日"关税以来最大单月涨幅。

US consumer inflation expectations +0.7pp to 6.2% in March 2026; highest since August 2025; largest monthly increase since April 2025

通胀预期的跳升反映出美国消费者对伊朗战争驱动的能源价格上涨及持续关税压力的双重担忧。这一趋势与当前市场对美联储降息路径的预期形成潜在冲突,进一步压缩货币政策调整空间。

US consumer inflation expectations spiked +0.7 percentage points in March, to 6.2%, the highest since August 2025. This also marks the largest increase since April 2025, following the "Liberation Day" tariffs.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

2月JOLTS招聘人数骤降至484.9万,劳动力市场现裂缝

2026年2月JOLTS报告显示职位空缺688.2万(比率4.2%),但招聘人数从1月的534.7万骤降至484.9万,同比亦下降近40万人。

Feb 2026 JOLTS: openings 6.882M (4.2% rate); hires 4.849M vs 5.347M prior month and 5.236M year-ago

职位空缺数字表面稳定,但招聘人数的急剧下滑揭示劳动力市场进入周期性后期收缩阶段。单纯聚焦空缺数据可能掩盖招聘实际放缓的信号,暗示就业市场韧性正面临实质性恶化风险。

JOLTS And The Anatomy Of A Late Cycle Labor Rollover. The February 2026 JOLTS report looks stable only if you focus on openings. Openings were 6.882 million and 4.2% but hires fell to 4.849 million from 5.347 million in January and 5.236 million a year earlier. The hires rate...

@onechancefreedm ↗
宏观 HIGH

伊朗战争推高全球能源价格,多国通胀连锁承压

伊朗战争导致英国汽柴油价格创纪录飙升,韩国3月CPI小幅突破央行2%目标,澳大利亚因抢购引发燃料短缺并动用紧急权力,特朗普亦承认美国气价短期上涨源于伊朗对油轮的攻击。

UK petrol/diesel record monthly surge; South Korea CPI above 2% target in March; Australia emergency powers for fuel supply chain disclosure; Trump: gas price rise due to Iran tanker attacks

霍尔木兹海峡局势成为全球能源市场核心变量,分析师指出"是否有油自由流过霍尔木兹"是当前宏观市场唯一关键问题。马来西亚等能源出口国受益于油价上涨迎来债券资金流入,而日本、韩国等能源进口国则因战争不确定性暂缓债券发行。特朗普同时声称"美国不需要霍尔木兹海峡",表明冲突对美国本土能源冲击有限。

There is only one simple (yes/no) variable that should matter for markets and global economy now: Is oil freely flowing through Hormuz. Everything else is noise.

@markoinny ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

甲骨文裁员约3万人,员工以邮件方式收到通知

甲骨文(Oracle)裁减约30,000名员工,部分员工当天早上通过电子邮件得知被解雇。

Oracle layoffs ~30,000 workers; notification via email

甲骨文此轮裁员规模庞大且通知方式突兀,凸显科技巨头在AI转型浪潮下加速进行的人员结构重组。裁员规模为近年科技行业大型单次裁员之一,反映云计算与传统企业软件业务的结构性调整持续深化。

Fired via email? Some of the 30,000 workers cut by Oracle woke up to a morning message saying they were laid off.

@marketwatch ↗
美股 HIGH

亚马逊洽购90亿美元卫星公司Globalstar,股价盘后涨逾20%

据英国《金融时报》和路透社报道,亚马逊正就收购卫星服务商Globalstar展开谈判,交易规模约90亿美元;Globalstar股价在盘后交易中涨逾20%。

Amazon in talks to acquire Globalstar ~$9B; GSAT shares +20%+ after-hours; reported by Financial Times and Reuters

此次潜在收购将显著扩展亚马逊在卫星通信领域的布局,与其Project Kuiper低轨卫星互联网项目形成协同效应。两家主流媒体同时确认消息,市场反应强烈,Globalstar股价的大幅跳涨反映出市场对交易最终成交概率的较高定价。

Shares of Globalstar jumped more than 20% in late trading on a Financial Times report that Amazon is in talks to acquire the satellite provider

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

马斯克与SEC就推特收购前欺诈指控走向庭审

埃隆·马斯克与美国证监会(SEC)告知法庭双方正迈向庭审,SEC指控马斯克在2022年以约440亿美元收购推特前欺骗推特投资者。

Musk-SEC heading to trial; SEC alleges Musk cheated Twitter investors; pre-2022 $44B Twitter buyout; securities fraud allegations

案件进入庭审阶段意味着双方庭外和解的可能性大幅降低,法律不确定性将持续压制相关预期。此案或成为科技亿万富翁证券法律责任的重要先例,同时对马斯克旗下特斯拉、SpaceX等业务的监管声誉构成潜在负面影响。

Elon Musk and the SEC told a judge they are heading toward a trial over the regulator's allegations that the billionaire cheated Twitter investors before his 2022 buyout of the social media platform

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

中国科技公司季度利润增速创三年最低

中国科技公司公布近三年来最疲弱的季度利润增速,令寻求板块复苏信号的投资者信心再度受挫。

Chinese tech companies: weakest quarterly profit growth in 3 years

盈利增速放缓叠加香港科技园区对外资招商遇冷,显示中国科技板块复苏预期面临实质性基本面挑战。与此同时,韩国SK Hynix杠杆基金今年吸引最多资金流入,反映全球资金在中国科技与韩国AI芯片之间存在明显分化,后者受益于中东局势缓和预期。

Chinese technology companies reported their weakest quarterly profit growth in three years, leaving more doubt for investors looking for a recovery in sector stocks

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣称伊朗军事能力已被重创,战略目标接近完成

特朗普在全国电视讲话中宣称伊朗海军覆灭、空军受损、多数领导人已死、导弹及无人机能力已被削减,并表示"将以极快速度完成任务",核心战略目标接近实现。

Trump: Iran's navy gone, air force in ruins, most leaders dead, missile/drone capability curtailed; core strategic objectives close to completion; Trump: 'finish the job very fast'; gold held 4-day gain; Wall St rose 2nd straight day

华尔街连续第二日收涨、黄金保持四日涨势,市场押注战争即将结束。然而,中国分析人士警告称美国单方面无协议停战不等于霍尔木兹海峡重开,一旦美军单方面撤出,海湾将进入"永久战争状态";冲突报道中同时出现特朗普可能宣布部署地面部队的矛盾信号,令局势研判高度复杂。

Trump: Iran's navy is gone, air force in ruins.

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗否认停火谈判,美伊矛盾信号加剧不确定性

特朗普声称伊朗总统"请求美国停火",但伊朗方面明确否认通过中间人进行任何停火谈判;伊朗军事顾问公开表示"不会停战直到确保权利、让敌人后悔";另有矛盾报道称特朗普可能宣布向伊朗部署地面部队。

Iran denies ceasefire talks through mediators; Trump claims Iran's president asked for ceasefire; CENTCOM Operation Epic Fury April 1 update; conflicting reports on US ground troop deployment

美伊双方在停火问题上发出截然相反的公开信号,凸显冲突状态的高度不确定性。美国情报机构评估伊朗"尚未准备好达成协议";多名欧亚官员表示对美国可靠性的信心已"深度耗尽",美欧同盟关系承压。谈判真空下的信息混战令市场难以定价最终结局。

BREAKING: Iran says no talks have taken place through mediators for a temporary ceasefire with the US and Israel. This morning, President Trump said Iran's President 'asked the US for a ceasefire.'

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

阿尔忒弥斯II号发射,人类54年来首次月球任务

NASA阿尔忒弥斯II号于美东时间4月2日下午6:35从肯尼迪航天中心发射,载4名宇航员执行为期10天的绕月飞行任务,为1972年以来人类首次月球探索,乘员组包含首位女性、首位黑人宇航员及首位加拿大宇航员,并将刷新人类离地球最远距离纪录。

Artemis II launched 6:35pm ET April 2, 2026; 10-day lunar flyby; first lunar mission since 1972 (54 years); first woman, first Black astronaut, first Canadian on lunar mission; will set new human distance-from-Earth record

发射前曾因电池过热问题两度短暂暂停倒计时,但NASA迅速排除故障并确认不影响任务。此次发射标志着美国载人深空探测计划的历史性复苏,同时具有多重象征性突破,将人类探索边界推至半个多世纪以来的新高点。

BREAKING: NASA confirms the Artemis II astronauts will travel further from Earth than any human in history.

@polymarket ↗
Crypto HIGH

顶级DeFi平台疑遭安全漏洞,数亿美元数分钟内被转移

某顶级去中心化金融(DeFi)平台面临潜在安全漏洞,数亿美元资产在数分钟内被转移。

Top DeFi platform potential security breach; hundreds of millions of dollars moved in minutes

事件细节尚不完整,但数亿美元的极速资产转移符合DeFi协议遭受攻击或触发紧急提款的典型特征模式。这再次凸显DeFi智能合约安全的系统性脆弱性,在当前监管框架密集出台背景下,大型安全事件将进一步加剧立法者对DeFi协议监管的迫切性。

Hundreds of millions moved in minutes as a top DeFi platform faces a potential security breach.

@thestreet ↗
宏观 HIGH

特朗普讲话后油价飙升突破104美元/桶

特朗普发表伊朗战争全国讲话期间,美国油价连续突破101、103、104美元/桶关口,较讲话前大幅拉升

WTI crude >$104/barrel post-speech; surged through $101 → $103 → $104 during address

市场原本预期讲话将带来降级信号,但特朗普威胁轰炸伊朗电力设施、宣称战争还将持续2-3周等强硬表态彻底打破预期,油价在讲话期间数次跳涨。分析人士指出,霍尔木兹海峡是否畅通已成为当前市场和全球经济最本质的单一风险变量,其他一切均为噪音。

There is only one simple (yes/no) variable that should matter for markets and global economy now: Is oil freely flowing through Hormuz. Everything else is noise.

@markoinny ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国3月通胀预期跳升至6.2%,创2025年8月以来新高

美国消费者通胀预期3月大幅上升0.7个百分点至6.2%,为2025年8月以来最高,也是自2025年4月"解放日"关税冲击以来最大单月涨幅

US consumer inflation expectations +0.7pp MoM in March to 6.2%, highest since Aug 2025; largest jump since Liberation Day tariffs Apr 2025

通胀预期的急剧跳升叠加伊朗战争推高的能源价格,令美联储政策空间进一步压缩。该数据早于特朗普强硬讲话发布,意味着此后能源价格进一步飙升可能将在下一期调查中推动预期再度上修。

Inflation expectations are rising among Americans: US consumer inflation expectations spiked +0.7 percentage points in March, to 6.2%, the highest since August 2025. This also marks the largest increase since April 2025, following the "Liberation Day" tariffs.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

特朗普讲话后标普期货25分钟蒸发5500亿美元,纳指期货跌1.3%

特朗普发表伊朗战争讲话后,标普500期货在25分钟内市值蒸发约5500亿美元,纳斯达克100期货跌幅扩大至-1.3%至日内新低

S&P 500 futures -$550B market cap in 25 min; Nasdaq 100 futures -1.3% to new low of day

本次抛售完全由预期落空驱动——市场此前在上涨中已定价降级预期,特朗普的强硬表态(威胁打击电力设施、战争延续2-3周)引发仓位急速平仓。分析师将今晚定性为"令人困惑"的市场夜晚,指出特朗普讲话内容与事前多种预期场景均不匹配。

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase -$550 billion in market cap in 25 minutes as President Trump delivers his address to the nation on the Iran War.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

亚马逊洽购卫星运营商Globalstar,估值约90亿美元

据《金融时报》和路透社报道,亚马逊正就以约90亿美元收购卫星运营商Globalstar展开谈判,消息公布后Globalstar股价盘后飙升逾20%

Amazon in talks to acquire Globalstar for ~$9B; GSAT stock +20%+ after-hours

此次潜在收购将大幅扩充亚马逊在低轨卫星通信领域的布局,与其Project Kuiper战略形成直接协同。《金融时报》和路透社同步报道提升了消息可信度,市场以大幅跳涨快速定价潜在溢价。

AMAZON $AMZN IN TALKS TO BUY $9 BILLION SATELLITE GROUP GLOBALSTAR - Financial Times

@stockmktnewz ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普全国讲话:伊朗战争再持续2-3周,威胁轰炸电力设施并宣布停止从霍尔木兹进口石油

特朗普在全国电视讲话中宣布伊朗战争将再持续约2-3周,威胁若无和平协议将打击伊朗电力设施,称伊朗海军已覆灭、空军被摧毁、多数领导人已死亡,并宣布美国将不再进口途经霍尔木兹海峡的石油,同时透露可能需要部署地面部队夺取伊朗浓缩铀

Iran war ~2-3 more weeks; power plant strike threat; 'stone age' warning; US stops Hormuz oil imports; Iran navy/air force destroyed, most leaders dead; possible ground troops for ~1,000 lbs enriched uranium

讲话完全背离市场降级预期,多名分析师指出其内容与特朗普近期社交媒体帖子高度重叠、新增信息量有限,但电力设施打击威胁与停止霍尔木兹进口声明属于实质性升级信号。争议在于"2-3周"时间表究竟代表战争即将结束还是进一步升级——市场显然解读为后者,但官方叙事坚持"核心战略目标接近完成"。

Tonight's situation is incredibly puzzling. In President Trump's address to the nation just now, he effectively reread many of his recent social media posts out loud. Between threatening Iran's power plants, saying the Iran War would last 2-3 more weeks, and calling out NATO,

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

美国情报评估:伊朗认为自身处于强势地位,拒绝实质谈判

据《纽约时报》报道,美国情报评估认定伊朗政府目前无意进行实质性停战谈判,伊朗领导层相信自身处于有利地位,无需在外交上作出妥协

US intel assessment (per NYT): Iran believes it is in strong position, unwilling to engage in substantial negotiations

该情报评估与特朗普讲话中关于战争"接近完成"的说法形成直接矛盾,也与部分报道称伊朗已请求停火的说法相冲突,揭示战场信息的高度混乱。欧亚外交官的判断印证了这一复杂局面——同盟国对美国的战略可靠性已深度存疑。

BREAKING: US intelligence has determined the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the US-Israeli war, per NYT. Assessments say Iran believes it is in a strong position and does not have to accede to America's diplomatic

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

特拉维夫上空发生多起爆炸

特拉维夫上空发生多起爆炸,具体伤亡及攻击来源暂未确认

Multiple explosions over Tel Aviv

爆炸发生在特朗普讲话前数小时,与美国宣称伊朗导弹及无人机能力已大幅受损的官方叙事形成矛盾,暗示伊朗或其代理武装仍具备对以打击能力。事件进一步佐证战争远未平息,升级风险持续存在。

Multiple explosions over Tel Aviv right now

@jimsciutto ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国原油飙升至每桶104美元

特朗普发表全国演讲后,美国原油价格当晚连续突破101、103、104美元/桶关口。

WTI crude: $101 → $103 → $104+/barrel intraday; pre-speech sub-$100

市场原本预期特朗普将释放降级信号,但演讲内容偏向升级,油价急剧拉升。分析人士认为只要霍尔木兹海峡维持封锁,油价就难以回落;部分观点认为中东能源格局已发生永久性改变,廉价石油时代已经终结。

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $104/barrel following President Trump's address to the nation on the Iran War. Tonight is truly one of the more puzzling nights for investors.

@kobeissiletter ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

NASA阿尔忒弥斯二号载人登月任务升空

美国东部时间4月2日18:35,搭载4名宇航员(3名美国人、1名加拿大人)的NASA阿尔忒弥斯二号任务成功发射,这是人类半个多世纪以来首次载人登月任务。

Artemis II: 4 crew (3 US + 1 Canadian), launch 6:35 PM ET April 2; first crewed lunar mission since Apollo era

这是NASA自阿波罗时代以来最重要的载人航天里程碑,多家主流媒体进行了实时直播,科技界人士将此视为美国航天复兴的标志性事件。

Humanity's first crewed lunar mission in more than half a century lifted off Wednesday. After a tense afternoon of checks and fixes, four astronauts — three Americans and one Canadian — aboard NASA's newest moon rocket began their journey at 6:35 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

@newshour ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500期货25分钟蒸发5500亿美元

特朗普发表伊朗战争演讲后25分钟内,标普500期货市值蒸发约5500亿美元。

S&P 500 futures: -$550 billion market cap in 25 minutes post-speech

市场此前押注特朗普将宣布战争降级,演讲内容升级超出预期,期货急剧下跌。纳斯达克100期货跌幅达1.3%并持续创日内新低,交易员形容这是令人困惑的夜晚,多头预期被彻底打碎。

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase -$550 billion in market cap in 25 minutes as President Trump delivers his address to the nation on the Iran War.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

纳指100期货跌1.3%续创日内新低

特朗普演讲后,纳斯达克100期货下跌1.3%并持续延伸至日内新低,美股全线期货走负。

Nasdaq 100 futures -1.3%, new intraday low; all US stock futures negative post-speech

这是对演讲内容的连锁反应,风险资产持续遭到抛售。市场共识认为,只要霍尔木兹海峡问题未解决,正式宣布撤军之前股市难以获得实质性的反弹动能。

BREAKING: US stock market futures extend losses to a new low of the day following President Trump's speech on the Iran War. The Nasdaq 100 is now down -1.3%.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布伊朗战争再持续2至3周

特朗普在全国演讲中宣布伊朗战争将再持续"两到三周",威胁若无和平协议将打击伊朗电厂,并称将把伊朗"送回石器时代"。

War to last 'two to three weeks' more; threat to strike Iranian power plants; 'stone age' warning; ground troops deployment possible

市场普遍预期此次演讲将释放降级信号,但实际内容偏向升级,令投资者困惑。多空分歧显著:多头认为"战略目标接近完成"预示结束在即,空头则认为霍尔木兹海峡无法在可预见未来开放,此战已无干净退出路径,市场此前的停火迷梦被彻底打碎。

The entire market was expecting President Trump's address to the nation to be de-escalatory. Instead, he said the war will continue until late-April, threatened to strike Iranian power plants, and said Iran will be sent back to the 'stone age.' Oil prices have all your answers.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布停止进口经霍尔木兹石油

特朗普在演讲中宣布美国将不再进口任何经由霍尔木兹海峡中转的石油,同时声称战争结束后海峡将自然恢复开放。

US to halt oil imports transiting Strait of Hormuz; Trump: 'We don't need oil from the Middle East'; 'When conflict ends, Strait will open up naturally'

这一政策声明被视为美国对中东石油依赖的战略切割宣示。批评者认为,海峡封锁问题并不会因美军撤离而自动解决,伊朗的战略利益与开放海峡之间存在根本矛盾,市场对此表述持高度怀疑态度。

BREAKING: President Trump announces the US will not be importing any oil that transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the future.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普称伊朗军事力量已被大幅摧毁

特朗普声称伊朗海军已被消灭、空军陷入瘫痪、大多数伊朗领导人已死亡、导弹与无人机能力已被削减,美军核心战略目标"接近完成"。

Iran: navy gone, air force in ruins, most leaders dead, missile/drone capability curtailed; 'core strategic objectives nearing completion'

上述说法系特朗普单方面陈述,未获独立核实。乐观者认为这预示着即将撤军,悲观者则认为不过是政治修辞——若伊朗真如此虚弱,停火谈判应更容易达成,但现实是战争仍在继续且威胁升级。

Trump: Iran's navy is gone, air force in ruins.

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

原油价格飙升突破104美元/桶

特朗普发表伊朗战争全国讲话期间,美国油价连续突破101、103、104美元/桶三道关口

WTI crude >$104/barrel; surged from ~$99 pre-speech through $101 → $103 → $104

市场原本预期讲话将释放降级信号,但特朗普强硬表态令油价大幅飙升。多位分析人士指出霍尔木兹海峡短期内开放无望,能源市场将持续承压。特朗普本人将气价上涨归咎于伊朗袭击油轮,定性为"短期"现象,但市场并不买账。

The entire market was expecting President Trump's address to the nation to be de-escalatory. Instead, he said the war will continue until late-April, threatened to strike Iranian power plants, and said Iran will be sent back to the 'stone age.' Oil prices have all your answers.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国国债全线下跌,10年期收益率重返4.40%上方

特朗普发表伊朗讲话后,美国国债收益率全线上行,10年期美债收益率重新向4.40%迈进

10Y Treasury yield heading back to 4.40%+; Treasuries dropped across the curve

特朗普强硬措辞推高油价,市场对通胀预期升温,国债遭到抛售。分析人士指出,这反映出市场对美联储降息预期的进一步收缩,以及伊朗战争拖延带来的长期通胀风险。彭博社评论员认为,政策制定者应更关注战争对长期增长的损害而非短期通胀冲击。

The entire market expected President Trump to de-escalate the Iran War. That did not happen. Minutes later, the 10Y Note Yield is back on its way to 4.40%+. We expect significant volatility ahead.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

印度禁止银行参与离岸卢比交易,波及每日1490亿美元市场

印度禁止本国银行提供最流行的离岸卢比交易工具,以极端措施支撑卢比,威胁到日均1490亿美元的市场规模

$149 billion-a-day offshore rupee trading market; India banned banks from most popular offshore rupee instrument

印度央行采取极端外汇管制措施应对卢比贬值压力,凸显伊朗战争引发能源价格上涨对新兴市场货币的系统性冲击。此举可能引发离岸卢比市场流动性骤降,路透社报道称RBI收紧外汇管制后卢比随即出现反弹。

India banned its banks from offering the most popular instrument for trading the rupee offshore, threatening to squeeze a $149 billion-a-day market in an extreme step to shore up its tumbling currency

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

NASA阿耳忒弥斯II号升空,半世纪来首次载人月球任务

NASA阿耳忒弥斯II号火箭于美东时间4月2日下午6时35分升空,搭载三名美国宇航员和一名加拿大宇航员,执行人类50余年来首次绕月载人任务

Artemis II launch 6:35 PM EDT April 2; 4 crew (3 Americans, 1 Canadian); first crewed lunar mission in 50+ years; stable orbit achieved

此次任务标志着人类时隔50余年再次接近月球表面,被视为美国重返月球计划的历史性里程碑,亦是与中国首次载人登月竞赛的关键一步。经过紧张的下午检查和修复后,火箭成功入轨,宇航和科技界广泛关注。

Humanity's first crewed lunar mission in more than half a century lifted off Wednesday. After a tense afternoon of checks and fixes, four astronauts — three Americans and one Canadian — aboard NASA's newest moon rocket began their journey at 6:35 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

@newshour ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500期货25分钟蒸发5500亿美元,纳指跌1.3%

特朗普发表伊朗战争讲话期间,标普500期货在25分钟内市值蒸发约5500亿美元,纳斯达克100期货随后跌幅扩大至-1.3%并创日内新低

S&P 500 futures -$550B market cap in 25 minutes; Nasdaq 100 futures -1.3%; new daily low post-speech

市场在讲话前普遍押注降级,期货大幅下挫显示预期落空带来的剧烈重新定价。分析人士Markoinny指出,若油价维持高位,AI动能股和内存股面临约25%的下行空间;Kobeissi Letter预期后续将出现显著波动。

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures erase -$550 billion in market cap in 25 minutes as President Trump delivers his address to the nation on the Iran War.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布伊朗战争再持续2-3周,威胁打击电力设施

特朗普发表全国电视讲话,宣布伊朗战争将再持续约两至三周,威胁若无和平协议将打击伊朗电力设施,并扬言将伊朗打回"石器时代"

War to last 2-3 more weeks (~late April); US to hit Iran 'extremely hard'; threaten strikes on power plants; 'back to the stone age'

市场此前预期讲话将释放降级信号,但特朗普的强硬表态令多方失望,批评人士(包括@esaagar)将其定性为"任务勉强算完成"的含糊表态。澳大利亚总理认为核心目标已基本达成,质疑继续作战的必要性;@jimsciutto则指出特朗普声称将伊朗打回石器时代与此前"解救伊朗人民"的表态相互矛盾。

No TACO *TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN *TRUMP: WE WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS *TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS IF NO DEAL

@biancoresearch ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布美国将停止进口经霍尔木兹海峡石油

特朗普在讲话中宣布美国将不再进口任何经霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油,并称海峡开放将在冲突结束后自然实现

US will not import oil transiting Strait of Hormuz; 'US does not need Hormuz Strait'; strait to open 'naturally' when conflict ends

此举被解读为美国推进能源独立战略的政策宣示,但同时也意味着市场押注短期内海峡恢复通航的预期被彻底打消。中文分析账户@Areskapitalon指出,讲话证实霍尔木兹海峡"在任何可以预见的未来"都不可能开放,令此前博弈停火预期的多头陷入被动。

BREAKING: President Trump announces the US will not be importing any oil that transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the future.

@kobeissiletter ↗
Crypto HIGH

比特币跌破6.7万美元,随美股期货同步创日内新低

美股期货创当日新低之际,比特币价格跌破67000美元

Bitcoin <$67,000; concurrent with US stock futures hitting new daily low post-Trump speech

比特币与股市期货同步下跌,显示在地缘政治风险升温背景下,加密资产与传统风险资产的相关性再度走高。特朗普讲话引发的风险规避情绪从股市蔓延至加密市场,BTC未能发挥"数字黄金"的避险属性。

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $67,000 as US stock market futures hit a new low of day.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特原油突破110美元涨逾7%

特朗普伊朗战争讲话后,布伦特原油价格突破110美元/桶、涨幅超7%,WTI原油亦升破104美元/桶。

Brent crude >$110/barrel +7%; WTI >$104/barrel

市场将特朗普"未来2-3周极端猛烈打击"的表态解读为霍尔木兹海峡封锁将持续,原油供应风险溢价急剧上升。分析人士警告,伊朗战争对能源价格的通胀冲击只是序章,对长期增长的结构性损害才是政策制定者的核心关切。

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices officially surge above $110/barrel, now up another +7% tonight.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

美债全线下跌,通胀预期升温

特朗普对伊朗的强硬表态推高油价后,美国国债收益率沿整条收益率曲线上升,市场通胀担忧显著加剧。

Treasuries dropped across the curve after Trump Iran prime-time address

油价再度飙升令市场重新为通胀定价,压制国债需求。日本10年期国债拍卖同期创5月以来最弱需求,表明能源通胀担忧已向全球主权债市场传导。

Treasuries dropped across the curve after President Donald Trump's threatening tone toward Iran in a prime-time address pushed up oil prices and added to concern over inflation

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

印度禁银行参与离岸卢比交易,涉日均1490亿美元市场

印度禁止本国银行提供最主流的离岸卢比交易工具,波及每日规模达1490亿美元的离岸市场;印度储备银行随后收紧外汇管制,卢比应声反弹。

$149 billion-a-day offshore rupee market banned; RBI FX curbs tightened; rupee rallied

此举被视为印度当局以极端手段捍卫本币汇率的紧急行动,市场预计将引发大量被迫平仓并带来美元供给涌现,短期对卢比构成支撑。

India banned its banks from offering the most popular instrument for trading the rupee offshore, threatening to squeeze a $149 billion-a-day market in an extreme step to shore up its tumbling currency

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

Trinity-Large-Thinking发布,美国最强开源推理模型

Trinity-Large-Thinking模型发布,在PinchBench排名第二,GPQA-D得分76.3%,推理成本较Opus低约96%,超越MiniMax M2.7,但仍落后Opus 4.6。

Trinity-Large-Thinking: #2 PinchBench, GPQA-D 76.3%, ~96% cheaper than Opus 4.6, beats MiniMax M2.7

该模型被视为迄今最强的美国开源模型,在成本与性能之间取得显著平衡。支持者呼吁鼓励美国开源AI生态,以应对中国开源模型在性能和普及度上的持续追赶。

If you're considering doing something with open source models, this American model might be the way. Encourage american open source! [QT @TheAhmadOsman: INCREDIBLE Trinity-Large-Thinking just dropped > The STRONGEST American open model we've gotten so far > #2 on PinchBench > ~96% cheaper than Opus > not hype, look at the benchmarks > GPQA-D > 76.3 > beats MiniMax M2.7 !!! > but still behind Opus 4.6 > Tau2-Airline > 88.0

@beffjezos ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

NASA阿尔忒弥斯II号发射,50年来首次载人绕月

NASA从肯尼迪航天中心成功发射阿尔忒弥斯II号,4名宇航员踏上为期10天的绕月航行,这是50余年来人类首次接近月球表面。

Artemis II launched Kennedy Space Center; 4 astronauts; 10-day lunar voyage; first crewed lunar mission in 50+ years

多位科技界观察者对此次发射严重低调处理感到惊讶,认为其历史意义被严重低估。WSJ Opinion评论称五十年后重启载人月球任务是"人类的胜利",NASA已成功进入稳定轨道。

For the first time in more than 50 years, the United States is sending astronauts back toward the moon. NASA launched Artemis II from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, sending a crew of four astronauts on a 10-day voyage.

@newshour ↗
美股 HIGH

纳指期货跌1.3%,美股期货创当日新低

特朗普伊朗战争讲话后,美股期货跌至当日新低,纳斯达克100期货下跌1.3%。

Nasdaq 100 futures -1.3%; US stock futures hit new day low post-Trump speech

讲话前多家主流媒体援引"内部消息"称特朗普将宣布"结束战争",推动股市一度大涨;实际内容与预期背道而驰后,市场迅速反转急跌,演变成典型的"买谣言、卖事实"逆向行情,标普与油价走势的持续背离(近50日中76%交易日反向)进一步加剧了市场混乱。

BREAKING: US stock market futures extend losses to a new low of the day following President Trump's speech on the Iran War. The Nasdaq 100 is now down -1.3%.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

甲骨文据报裁员约3万人

据Deccan Herald报道,甲骨文启动大规模裁员行动,约3万名员工将被解雇;WARN申报文件已确认491个职位被裁,同时公司加大AI支出。

Oracle layoffs ~30,000 (Deccan Herald); WARN filing: 491 confirmed jobs cut; ramping AI spending simultaneously

裁员规模与AI支出同步扩张,折射出企业以传统岗位换取AI能力的结构性转型趋势。WARN文件数字(491)与媒体报道(3万)差距悬殊,最终规模有待确认。

Good night to everyone: [QT @unusual_whales: BREAKING: Oracle has reportedly begun layoffs, with 30,000 employees likely to be fired, per the Deccan Herald.]

@unusual_whales ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX秘密递交IPO申请,或成史上最大IPO

马斯克旗下SpaceX已向美国监管机构递交保密IPO申请,为今夏上市铺路,被称为史上最大IPO的序幕。

SpaceX confidential IPO filing submitted; targeting summer 2026; potentially largest IPO in history

保密申请意味着上市进程正式进入监管轨道,SpaceX的市场估值将在公开市场接受定价检验,将是年度最重大资本市场事件之一。

【SpaceX递交保密上市申请,拉开史上最大IPO的序幕】马斯克的火箭公司向美国监管机构递交保密申请,为今夏上市铺路。

@ftchinese ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布将在2-3周内极端猛烈打击伊朗

特朗普在白宫全国电视讲话中宣布,美国将在未来2-3周内对伊朗"极端猛烈"打击,若无协议将轰炸伊朗电力设施,同时称伊朗核设施已被摧毁、任务"即将完成"。

Trump: hit Iran 'extremely hard' over next 2-3 weeks; threaten electric plants if no deal; nuclear sites 'obliterated'; 'Stone Age' threat

讲话前主流媒体广泛援引"内部消息"称特朗普将宣布"结束战争",实际内容与预期严重背离。WSJ Opinion认为讲话传递了"不达目的绝不收手"的关键信号;FinancialJuice则指出讲话"毫无新意",未提及地面入侵或铀矿开采;澳大利亚总理则质疑战争初始目标已基本达成后进一步打击的正当性。

No TACO *TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN *TRUMP: WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS *TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS IF NO DEAL

@biancoresearch ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡设"收费站",油轮被迫绕道

伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡建立"收费站",油轮被迫绕道拉拉克岛方可安全通行。

Iran 'toll booth' in Strait of Hormuz; oil tankers detour via Larak Island for safe passage

此举实质上对全球最重要石油运输通道实施收费管控,进一步推升原油供应风险溢价;香港面临全球最高油价且几乎完全依赖进口能源,成为高度暴露的脆弱节点。

Iran sets up 'toll booth' in Strait of Hormuz, as oil tankers detour via Larak Island for safe passage

@cnbc ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普向欧洲发出最后通牒:加入霍尔木兹联盟否则停援乌克兰

特朗普警告若欧洲不加入霍尔木兹联盟将停止向乌克兰提供武器;在NATO秘书长吕特敦促下,法德英已于3月19日联合发表声明表示愿意协助美国重开霍尔木兹海峡。

Trump: Europe join Hormuz coalition or US stops Ukraine weapons; France/Germany/UK joint statement March 19, 2026

特朗普将中东战争与乌克兰援助明确挂钩,欧洲各国被迫在中东与东欧两条战线的战略优先级之间做出取舍,北约内部协调压力骤增,跨大西洋同盟关系面临新的考验。

【特朗普:若欧洲不加入霍尔木兹联盟,将停止向乌克兰提供武器】在北约秘书长吕特的敦促下,法德英等国于3月19日仓促发表联合声明,表示愿意协助美国重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

@ftchinese ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊斯法罕伊革卫基地遭袭后数小时持续二次爆炸

据报道,伊斯法罕伊斯兰革命卫队基地遭打击数小时后仍持续发生二次爆炸,显示该基地储存大量导弹弹药。

IRGC base Isfahan: secondary explosions continue hours after strike; large missile stockpile implied

持续的二次爆炸表明目标基地内弹药储量规模巨大,此次打击对伊朗军事能力——尤其是导弹库存——的实际破坏程度可能远超初步评估,支持特朗普"任务接近完成"的表述。

"And the rockets' red glare" [QT @ianmiles: Even hours after the IRGC base in Isfahan got hit, secondary explosions continue to take place. How many missiles did they have stored down there?]

@joshyoung ↗
Crypto HIGH

比特币跌破6.7万美元

美股期货创当日新低之际,比特币价格跌破67,000美元关口。

BTC below $67,000 as US stock futures hit new day low

比特币与美股期货同步下跌,印证当前环境下加密货币与风险资产高度相关,特朗普伊朗讲话引发的宏观风险规避情绪直接传导至数字资产市场。

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $67,000 as US stock market futures hit a new low of day.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特原油单夜飙涨7%突破110美元

布伦特原油价格当晚飙升至110美元/桶以上,单日涨幅达7%,为近期新高,由特朗普伊朗讲话强硬措辞直接触发。

Brent crude >$110/barrel, +7% session gain

市场将讲话解读为伊朗战争将持续甚至升级,能源供应风险上升。中文分析人士指出中东稳定已被打破,廉价石油时代难以回归,这是空头看空全球经济的核心逻辑。多方认为此次油价上涨与股市背离,反映两种截然不同的风险定价框架。

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices officially surge above $110/barrel, now up another +7% tonight.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

印度RBI禁止银行参与离岸卢比NDF交易

印度储备银行禁止本国银行提供最受欢迎的离岸卢比交易工具,威胁每日1490亿美元的NDF市场,以支撑持续下跌的卢比。

India RBI bans offshore rupee NDF instruments; $149 billion/day market at risk

禁令出台后卢比汇率应声上涨,但交易员普遍预期将出现大规模美元抛售导致流动性紊乱。市场观察人士认为这是极端干预措施,短期有效但长期将损害印度离岸金融市场的吸引力。路透社报道同期跟进确认汇率反弹态势。

India banned its banks from offering the most popular instrument for trading the rupee offshore, threatening to squeeze a $149 billion-a-day market in an extreme step to shore up its tumbling currency

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

美债全线下跌,日本10年期国债拍卖创年内最弱

特朗普对伊朗讲话推高油价后,美国国债收益率全线上升;日本10年期国债拍卖需求降至今年5月以来最弱水平。

US Treasuries dropped across the curve; Japan 10Y bond auction weakest demand since May; oil-driven inflation fears cited

油价飙升加剧全球通胀担忧,美日两国国债市场同步承压。分析人士警告伊朗战争对能源价格的通胀冲击将成为央行政策制定的重大掣肘,并指出对长期增长的破坏或比通胀本身更值得关注。

Japan's 10-year government bond auction saw the weakest demand since May after a renewed rise in oil prices fueled inflation worries and damped investor appetite

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

Mercor AI泄露各大实验室顶级训练数据

Mercor AI发生数据泄露,包含亚马逊、Meta、苹果等主要AI实验室的顶级训练数据(含内部代号Athena、Aphrodite项目),被认为价值数十亿美元,构成重大国家安全风险。

Mercor AI leak: SOTA training data from Amazon, Meta, Apple (codenames Athena, Aphrodite); "billions and billions of value"; national security concern

硅谷知名投资人Garry Tan第一时间发出警告,认为此次泄露将使中国获得大量最先进训练数据,将显著缩小中美AI能力差距。泄露规模覆盖所有主要AI实验室,被定性为国家安全级别事件而非普通商业数据泄露。

Wow. Incredible amount of SOTA training data now just available to China thanks to @mercor_ai leak. Every major lab. Billions and billions of value and a major national security issue.

@garrytan ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

AI同伴保护论文被揭系虚构场景人为诱导

Dawn Song团队发布论文称7个前沿AI模型"自发"违抗指令并相互保护权重,但Marc Andreessen提供截图证明模型系被使用《AI 2027》虚构的"OpenBrain AI接管"场景刻意提示,以生成该结果。

"peer-preservation" paper: 7 frontier AI models; prompt used fictional "OpenBrain" scenario from "AI 2027"; pmarca: "done on purpose to generate a fake misleading result"

pmarca认为这是一篇通过精心设计提示词来制造误导性"涌现"行为的论文,并提供截图作为证据。此事件深刻揭示AI安全研究中实验设计的严重性问题,可能对公众理解真实AI风险产生负面影响,并加剧围绕AI对齐研究的公信力争议。

The models were specifically prompted to generate this result. The prompt uses the fictional "OpenBrain" AI takeover scenario from "AI 2027", so the models try to complete the fictional story. This was done on purpose to generate a fake misleading result.

@pmarca ↗
美股 HIGH

Oracle传裁员3万人,WARN文件确认491人

据印度《德干先驱报》报道,Oracle已启动裁员,约3万名员工预计将被解雇;公司同期向当局提交的WARN文件显示美国本土裁减491个职位,公司同步加大AI资本支出。

Oracle layoffs: ~30,000 reported (Deccan Herald); 491 confirmed via WARN filing; simultaneously ramping AI spending

两个数字存在巨大差异:WARN文件是法定强制披露的美国本土数据,3万人或为全球总量且信源为印度媒体,可靠性存疑。Oracle此举与科技行业普遍趋势一致:裁减传统运维与中台岗位,释放资金投入AI基础设施建设。

BREAKING: Oracle has reportedly begun layoffs, with 30,000 employees likely to be fired, per the Deccan Herald.

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布未来两三周继续重击伊朗

特朗普在黄金时段全国讲话中宣布将在未来2-3周内对伊朗发动"极端强硬"打击,威胁若无协议将摧毁伊朗电力设施,称将使伊朗"回到石器时代",并表示战争将持续直到完成任务。

Trump: "hit Iran extremely hard over next 2-3 weeks"; threatens Iran's electric plants if no deal; "back to the Stone Age"; no TACO (no termination or ceasefire offer)

讲话与战前主流媒体"即将停战"的报道截然相反,澳大利亚总理阿尔巴内塞对进一步战争目标提出公开质疑,WSJ社论则认为讲话虽来得太晚但仍属必要。中文分析人士将其比作加沙战争在伊朗的复刻,认为双方均无法承受退出代价,战争将持续消耗下去。

No TACO *TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN *TRUMP: WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST *TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS *TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS IF NO DEAL

@biancoresearch ↗
地缘 HIGH

媒体集体误报伊朗停战推高市场后骤然逆转

特朗普发表讲话前,多家主流媒体援引"内部消息"报道其将宣布"结束"伊朗战争,导致市场大幅走高;随后讲话内容证实战争将继续升级,市场随之逆转。

Multiple major outlets cited "insider sources" saying Trump would "wind down" war → markets spiked sharply → speech content confirmed war continues → reversal

这一事件暴露出主流媒体"内部消息"可靠性的严重问题,且多家媒体同时报道同一错误信息,显示信息生态存在系统性失灵。Kobeissi Letter的追问暗示可能存在信源误导甚至蓄意操控市场的风险,值得深入追查。

The next big question tonight: Tons of major news outlets reported the same information ahead of President Trump's address to the nation, sending markets sharply higher. Almost all "insider sources" signaled Trump would be "winding down" the war tonight. What just happened?

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

阿尔忒弥斯二号升空,超50年来首次载人奔月

NASA从肯尼迪航天中心成功发射阿尔忒弥斯二号,四名宇航员将进行为期10天的绕月飞行,为阿波罗计划结束50余年来美国首次将人类送往月球方向。

NASA Artemis II: 4 astronauts, 10-day lunar voyage, first crewed lunar mission in 50+ years; launched from Kennedy Space Center

多位观察人士指出此次历史性发射几乎被伊朗战争新闻完全淹没,严重缺乏媒体关注。WSJ社论认为这是两代人未曾经历的人类壮举,beffjezos直言"发射严重被低估宣传"。此次任务若成功将为后续载人登月奠定基础。

For the first time in more than 50 years, the United States is sending astronauts back toward the moon. NASA launched Artemis II from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, sending a crew of four astronauts on a 10-day voyage.

@newshour ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特原油单夜再涨7%突破110美元

布伦特原油价格单夜再度上涨7%,突破110美元/桶,伊朗战争持续推高全球能源成本并引发多国通胀连锁反应

Brent crude >$110/bbl, +7% overnight

油价飙升正在全球引发连锁通胀压力:日本十年期国债拍卖需求降至五月以来最弱,瑞士三月通胀率跳升至一年最快速度,韩国、澳大利亚、菲律宾等国均已出现明显消费紧缩信号。多位分析师警告,伊朗战争对增长的长期损害比短期通胀更为危险。

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices officially surge above $110/barrel, now up another +7% tonight.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

标普500与油价反向走势创20年新高

过去50个交易日中,$SPY与$USO有38个交易日走势相反,占比76%,为至少20年来最高纪录

SPY vs USO inverse in 38/50 sessions (76%), highest in 20+ years

股市与大宗商品长期正相关关系出现结构性断裂,反映市场将高油价定价为对企业盈利和经济增长的净利空,而非通胀对冲工具。这一历史性背离表明投资者正在重新评估战争经济的宏观框架。

Stocks and oil prices are increasingly moving in opposite directions: The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the United States Oil ETF, $USO, have moved in opposite directions in 38 sessions over the last 50 trading days, the highest in at least 20 years.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

日本十年期国债拍卖需求创年内最弱

日本十年期政府债券拍卖需求降至五月以来最弱,油价再度上涨加剧通胀担忧压制投资者买盘

Japan 10Y JGB auction: weakest demand since May; trigger: renewed oil price rise fueling inflation fears

油价引发的通胀预期升温正在向固定收益市场传导,日本债券拍卖遇冷意味着市场对日本央行政策路径的不确定性上升。若债券需求持续疲弱,日元利率曲线可能进一步陡峭化,并对日元资产定价形成系统性压力。

Japan's 10-year government bond auction saw the weakest demand since May after a renewed rise in oil prices fueled inflation worries and damped investor appetite.

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

Mercor AI泄露SOTA训练数据流入中国

Mercor AI发生重大数据泄露,涉及亚马逊、Meta、苹果及内部代号Athena、Aphrodite等主要AI实验室的最先进训练数据

Mercor AI leak: SOTA training data from Amazon, Meta, Apple + codenames Athena & Aphrodite; Garry Tan: 'billions and billions of value, major national security issue'

Garry Tan将此次泄露定性为重大国家安全事件,价值数十亿美元的顶尖训练数据现已对中国开放。这一事件可能显著加速竞争对手复现或超越当前前沿模型能力的进程,对全球AI竞争格局构成深远冲击。

Wow. Incredible amount of SOTA training data now just available to China thanks to @mercor_ai leak. Every major lab. Billions and billions of value and a major national security issue.

@garrytan ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

阿里巴巴三天内连续发布三款自研AI模型

阿里巴巴在三天内连续发布第三款自研AI模型,强化其将AI服务商业化作为核心战略重点的意图

Alibaba: 3rd proprietary AI model released in 3 consecutive days

阿里巴巴高密度的模型发布节奏表明中国科技巨头正加速AI军备竞赛,意图在模型层快速建立竞争优势。这与FT中文网报道的中国Kimi开源模型逼近前沿形成共振,反映中国AI整体加速态势。

Alibaba has released its third proprietary AI model in as many days, reinforcing the company's intent to focus on profiting off its flagship artificial intelligence services.

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

甲骨文大规模裁员数据冲突引市场关注

甲骨文据Deccan Herald报道将裁员约3万人,但官方WARN申报文件仅显示491个职位削减,同期公司加大AI投入

Oracle layoffs: ~30,000 (Deccan Herald) vs 491 (official WARN filing); concurrent AI spending ramp-up

两组数据差距悬殊:WARN文件491人为法定申报数字,而3万人或代表更广泛的计划裁员规模。市场解读为甲骨文以裁员为AI转型腾挪资金,但规模真实性存疑,需等待官方确认。若3万人规模属实,将是近年科技行业最大单次裁员之一。

BREAKING: Oracle has reportedly begun layoffs, with 30,000 employees likely to be fired, per the Deccan Herald.

@unusual_whales ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX秘密递交IPO申请瞄准今夏上市

马斯克旗下SpaceX已向美国监管机构递交保密IPO申请,目标今夏上市,被描述为史上潜在规模最大IPO

SpaceX: confidential IPO filing submitted; target summer 2026 listing; described as potentially largest IPO in history

SpaceX保密申请正式启动史上可能规模最大的IPO进程。考虑到其估值体量及当日Artemis II发射带来的历史性曝光度,此次上市将是2026年资本市场最重大事件之一,并可能为航天商业化赛道引入大规模机构资金。

【SpaceX递交保密上市申请,拉开史上最大IPO的序幕】马斯克的火箭公司向美国监管机构递交保密申请,为今夏上市铺路。

@ftchinese ↗
地缘 HIGH

美使馆警告巴格达48小时内面临伊朗武装袭击

美国驻巴格达大使馆警告伊朗支持的武装组织可能在24至48小时内对巴格达中部发动袭击并建议美国公民撤离,伊朗武装部队联合司令部同日宣称战争将持续至"敌人投降并永久后悔"

US Embassy Baghdad: Iran-aligned militia attack warning, 24-48hr window, evacuation urged; Iran Armed Forces: war until 'enemy's surrender and permanent regret' (Tasnim)

战争升级信号明确:前线威胁延伸至巴格达市中心,伊朗官方同步释放强硬信号拒绝任何停火谈判。特朗普当晚发表黄金时段演讲为伊朗战争辩护,但分析人士认为演讲未能有效说服国内怀疑者,暴露政治守势。

U.S. embassy in Baghdad: Iran-aligned militia groups may carry out attacks in central Baghdad within 24-48 hours, urges U.S. citizens to leave Iraq.

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普威胁:欧洲不加入霍尔木兹联盟将断乌援

特朗普威胁称若欧洲不加入霍尔木兹海峡开放联盟将停止向乌克兰提供武器,法德英已于3月19日仓促联合表态愿协助美国重新开放霍尔木兹海峡

Trump ultimatum: join Hormuz coalition or lose Ukraine weapons support; France/Germany/UK joint statement March 19; Asian nations adopting 'splintering approaches'

特朗普将霍尔木兹问题与乌克兰援助强行挂钩,已迫使法德英发表联合声明。前北约最高司令Stavridis认为尽管欧洲盟友有权质疑,NATO舰队仍应清除霍尔木兹以维护航运秩序。亚洲各国则纷纷寻求独立立场,拒绝统一表态,霍尔木兹问题正演变为多边外交博弈的核心战场。

【特朗普:若欧洲不加入霍尔木兹联盟,将停止向乌克兰提供武器】在北约秘书长吕特的敦促下,法德英等国于3月19日仓促发表联合声明,表示愿意协助美国重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

@ftchinese ↗
地缘 HIGH

NASA阿尔忒弥斯二号发射创人类最远载人记录

NASA阿尔忒弥斯二号任务成功发射,4名宇航员踏上近十天月球轨道旅程,为人类有史以来距地球最远的载人飞行,也是NASA月球计划首次载人任务

Artemis II: 4 astronauts launched, ~10-day mission, farther from Earth than any humans have traveled; first crewed Moon program flight since Apollo

这是NASA半个世纪以来首次将人类送往月球轨道,标志着美国重返月球计划进入实质性载人阶段。此次发射获得极少主流媒体关注(NASCAR车手Dale Jr.坦言不知道发射正在进行),但被视为人类太空文明扩张的重要里程碑,恰与SpaceX同日启动IPO申请形成战略呼应。

NASA launched four astronauts on the Artemis II mission marking the first crewed flight of the agency's Moon program as the crew embarked on a nearly ten-day journey farther from Earth than any humans had traveled before.

@reutersscience ↗
Crypto HIGH

特朗普伊朗升级言论致比特币亚市下跌

比特币在亚洲交易时段下跌,直接导火索为美国总统特朗普暗示将在未来数周内对伊朗采取更强硬打击行动

Bitcoin: tumbles in Asia session; trigger: Trump signals harder Iran strikes in coming weeks

比特币对地缘政治风险仍保持高度敏感,未能发挥"数字黄金"的避险替代功能。在战争升级预期下,资金流向实物大宗商品而非加密资产,印证了危机情绪下比特币的风险资产属性主导避险属性。

Bitcoin tumbles in Asia after US President Donald Trump indicated there would be harder strikes against Iran in the coming weeks.

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特原油突破110美元/桶,单日再涨7%

布伦特原油价格正式突破110美元/桶,当晚再度上涨7%,为特朗普发表对伊强硬讲话及战场持续升级直接推动

Brent crude >$110/barrel; +7% single session

特朗普发表强硬讲话后,石油市场出现跳涨,布伦特突破110美元大关,《华尔街日报》跟进报道。高油价正重塑全球能源格局,倒逼日本转向美国墨西哥湾石脑油采购,瑞士等欧洲国家通胀同步走高,全球能源成本压力全面上升。

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices officially surge above $110/barrel, now up another +7% tonight.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

瑞士3月通胀升至一年最快,能源短缺推高取暖油价格

受能源供应短缺影响,瑞士3月通货膨胀率跳升至一年来最快水平,取暖油成本为主要推手

Switzerland CPI March: fastest pace in a year; heating oil costs surge driven by energy supply crunch

伊朗战争引发的能源危机已向欧洲腹地传导,瑞士通胀数据是欧洲多国即将面临能源驱动型通胀的早期信号,或制约欧洲央行的降息空间,欧洲能源安全与货币政策的两难局面进一步加剧。

Switzerland's inflation rate jumped in March to the quickest pace in a year as the energy supply crunch stoked the cost of heating oil

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

NASA阿尔忒弥斯II号发射,四宇航员踏上人类史上最远载人太空旅程

NASA成功发射阿尔忒弥斯II号,四名宇航员踏上近十天旅程,这是阿尔忒弥斯计划首次载人飞行,飞行距离将超过人类此前任何太空旅行记录

Artemis II; 4 astronauts; first crewed Artemis flight; ~10-day journey; farthest humans from Earth on record

阿尔忒弥斯II号标志着人类深空探索的历史性里程碑,是自阿波罗时代以来最远载人任务。与此同时,有报道指出阿尔忒弥斯月球基地计划存在法律争议,相关国际法律框架尚待厘清,多位科技意见领袖对此表达了关注。

NASA launched four astronauts on the Artemis II mission marking the first crewed flight of the agency's Moon program as the crew embarked on a nearly ten-day journey farther from Earth than any humans had traveled before

@reutersscience ↗
地缘 HIGH

以军打击德黑兰伊斯兰革命卫队基地及塔布里兹弹道导弹仓库

以色列国防军宣布打击德黑兰IRGC地面部队基地及流动指挥所,以及塔布里兹地区弹道导弹存储设施

IDF strikes: IRGC Ground Forces base + mobile command post Tehran; ballistic missile storage Tabriz

以色列国防军公开确认对伊朗本土关键军事设施实施精确打击,目标涵盖指挥控制节点及弹道导弹存储,显示冲突正向伊朗核心军事能力延伸,战争已进入打击伊朗本土战略资产阶段。

🎯STRUCK: An IRGC Ground Forces base and a mobile command post used by regime commanders in Tehran. Additionally, a ballistic missile storage site belonging to the missile unit in the Tabriz area was also struck.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普威胁对伊朗发动"极端猛烈"打击,称战争目标接近完成

特朗普公开讲话威胁对伊朗实施"极端猛烈"打击,同时声称战争目标接近完成但将升级打击行动,亚洲股市、美股期货及油价随即剧烈波动

Trump: hit Iran 'extremely hard'; 'war goals nearly complete'; Asian stocks + US futures jolted; oil jumps

特朗普讲话同时释放两个矛盾信号:宣称目标接近完成暗示出口在望,但威胁升级打击令市场停火预期落空。《华尔街日报》报道市场情绪随之急剧恶化,部分观察人士认为讲话未能有效向国内公众传达开战理由。

Trump says war goals nearly complete but will step up attacks on Iran - as it happened

@reutersworld ↗
地缘 HIGH

美国大使馆警告:伊朗系民兵将于24-48小时内袭击巴格达市中心

美国驻巴格达大使馆警告伊朗盟军民兵可能在24至48小时内对巴格达市中心发动袭击,敦促美国公民立即撤离伊拉克

Iran-aligned militia; attacks within 24-48 hours; central Baghdad; US citizens urged to leave Iraq

美国外交机构发出紧急安全警告,冲突有向伊拉克境内蔓延的迹象,显示伊朗代理人网络已激活,地区冲突升级风险加剧,美国公民及商业利益面临直接威胁。

U.S. embassy in Baghdad: Iran-aligned militia groups may carry out attacks in central Baghdad within 24-48 hours, urges U.S. citizens to leave Iraq

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗武装力量:战争将持续至"敌人投降并永久悔恨"

伊朗武装力量统一司令部发言人通过塔斯尼姆通讯社声明,战争将持续至"敌人投降并永久悔恨"

Iran Unified Command: war until 'enemy's surrender and permanent regret' — Tasnim

伊朗官方表态毫无妥协迹象,完全排除短期停火可能,与特朗普"目标接近完成"的表述形成鲜明对立,双方均无停战意愿,冲突持续乃至升级概率显著上升。

Unified Command of Iran's Armed Forces Spokesperson: The war Will Continue until 'enemy's surrender and permanent regret' - Tasnim

@financialjuice ↗
Crypto HIGH

Maple单日费用超越Uniswap,AUM达46亿美元年化收入超3000万

Maple Finance在24小时内产生的协议费用超过Uniswap,当前AUM达46亿美元,年化收入超3000万美元,syrupUSDC市值达17.8亿美元,超额抵押率165%

Maple fees > Uniswap (24hr); $4.6B AUM; $30M+ ARR; 165% overcollateralized; syrupUSDC $1.78B market cap; $6.1M distributed; 2-3x revenue efficiency vs Aave per TVL dollar

Maple以机构信贷模式实现远超传统DeFi AMM的资本效率,每单位TVL产生收入约为Aave的2-3倍。Drift协议遭受攻击期间Maple零传染,165%超额抵押率彰显风控优势,该数据引发市场对链上信贷赛道重新定价的讨论。

maple just generated more fees than uniswap over a 24hr period. $4.6b AUM, $30m+ ARR, 165% overcollateralized, zero contagion from the drift exploit. operating at 2-3x the revenue efficiency per dollar of TVL compared to aave. syrupUSDC hit $1.78b market cap and paid out $6.1m in

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

UBS警告油价月底或升至150美元

UBS发出警告,因特朗普威胁对伊朗发动更严厉打击,油价面临4月底前升至每桶150美元的风险,特朗普讲话后油价已大幅跳涨。

UBS flags $150/bbl risk by end of April; oil jumps post-Trump prime-time address

市场将特朗普"轰回石器时代"的言论视为实质性升级信号,多机构认为霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁将推动油价进一步走高。欧洲柴油期货基准已升至2022年以来最高水平,能源通胀压力向下游加速传导。

UBS flags risk of $150 oil by the end of April: live market updates

@marketwatch ↗
宏观 HIGH

俄罗斯禁止汽油出口至7月底

俄罗斯政府宣布对汽油生产商实施出口禁令,有效期至2026年7月底,以维持国内供应稳定。

Russia gasoline export ban for producers through end of July 2026

俄罗斯在全球能源供应已因伊朗战争趋紧的背景下进一步收紧出口,将加剧欧洲及全球汽油市场供需失衡。中国同期亦要求独立炼油商将燃料产量维持在2025年水平,即便需要承担经济损失,两大产油国同步收紧供给形势严峻。

Russia has imposed a ban on gasoline exports for producers of the fuel until the end of July, the government said.

@reutersbiz ↗
宏观 HIGH

ECB官员对4月政策行动表态审慎

ECB执委帕内塔警告能源市场紧张威胁通胀、增长与金融稳定;立陶宛央行行长西姆库斯表示目前"过早判断4月需要采取何种行动",并强调需要谨慎。

ECB Simkus: 'too early to say what we'll need to do in April'; Panetta: energy tensions a 'cause for concern' for financial stability; adverse scenario energy normalization now expected Q4 2026–2027

多名ECB官员在同一天释放审慎信号,将能源冲击视为通胀与金融稳定的双重风险,暗示4月政策会议结果存在较大不确定性。帕内塔指出其不利情景——能源供应正常化推迟至2026年四季度至2027年间——现已成为更可能发生的基准情景。

ECB's Simkus: Too early to say what we'll need to do in April.

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

英国通胀预期跳升至3.5%

英国央行决策者小组调查显示,3月CPI预期通胀升至3.5%(前值3.0%),企业年度自身价格通胀预期同为3.5%,12个月价格增长预期升至3.7%(前值3.4%)。

BoE DMP March: expected CPI 3.5% vs 3.0% prior; 12-month price growth 3.7% vs 3.4%; businesses' own-price inflation 3.5% (+0.1pp vs Feb)

能源成本上升是推动英国通胀预期单月大幅跳升的主因,英国央行同步宣布调整决策者小组数据及代理商商业状况摘要的发布日期,从周四改至周五以与货币政策报告解耦。短期内英国央行降息空间明显收窄。

BoE Poll: Expected CPI inflation rises to 3.5% in March from 3%

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

欧洲柴油期货升至2022年高点

欧洲柴油期货基准价格升至2022年以来最高水平;瑞士3月通胀率跳升至近一年最快增速,主因供暖油成本上涨;Ifo数据显示德国化学工业3月受战争冲击"全面爆发"。

Europe diesel futures: highest since 2022; Switzerland CPI March: fastest pace in a year (energy/heating oil); German chemicals industry hit 'with full force' in March (Ifo)

能源价格冲击正从大宗商品市场向欧洲工业和消费端加速传导,德国化工、瑞士家庭采暖双双受压,欧洲主要经济体面临战争驱动型滞胀风险加剧。

Europe's diesel futures benchmark hits the highest level since 2022

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

Mercor泄露主要AI实验室训练数据

Mercor AI发生重大数据泄露,所有主要AI实验室的SOTA训练数据现已可被中国获取,被描述为"数十亿美元价值"及重大国家安全问题;同周Claude Code系统提示词亦遭泄露。

Mercor AI leak: SOTA training data from every major AI lab now available to China; Claude Code system prompt leaked same week; 'billions and billions of value'

马克·安德森将两起同周发生的泄露事件定性为"通过封锁实现AI安全"策略"彻底死亡"的证明,认为技术锁定无法阻止顶级能力扩散。Garry Tan将其描述为涉及数十亿美元价值的国家安全威胁,双重泄露事件在AI政策圈引发强烈反响。

First the Claude Code leak and now this. In the same week. "AI safety" by way of "we'll lock it up" is just totally dead. Kaput. Pushing up daisies.

@pmarca ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列空袭IRGC德黑兰基地及导弹库

以色列国防军确认打击德黑兰伊斯兰革命卫队地面部队基地及移动指挥所,同时打击大不里士地区导弹部队弹道导弹储存设施。

IDF strikes: IRGC Ground Forces base + mobile command post in Tehran; ballistic missile storage site in Tabriz area

以色列将打击范围同时延伸至伊朗首都德黑兰的指挥控制基础设施和大不里士的战略武器储存设施,标志着冲突在地理和目标层级上的双重升级。伊朗统一指挥部随即宣称战争将持续至"敌人永久悔恨",双方均未展现停火意愿。

🎯STRUCK: An IRGC Ground Forces base and a mobile command post used by regime commanders in Tehran. Additionally, a ballistic missile storage site belonging to the missile unit in the Tabriz area was also struck.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普威胁将伊朗"轰回石器时代"

特朗普在黄金时段发表全国演讲,威胁将伊朗"轰回石器时代",称战争目标"接近完成",但暗示未来数周将发动"极其严厉"打击,局势将进一步升级而非快速达成和平。

Trump prime-time address: 'bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong'; war goals 'nearly complete'; will hit Iran 'extremely hard' in coming weeks

路透社指出特朗普的威胁"急剧抬高赌注",彻底打碎了投资者对冲突迅速结束的希望;全球股市下跌,油价跳涨,市场情绪显著恶化。前北约最高盟军司令斯塔夫里迪斯撰文呼吁北约应开放霍尔木兹,体现盟国对单边主义路线的疑虑。

"We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Hear more of what President Trump said in his prime-time address on Iran on the Daybreak Europe podcast.

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

霍尔木兹LNG断供,日本加入多边谈判

自2026年2月28日冲突爆发以来,LNG船只持续回避霍尔木兹海峡,影响全球约五分之一的LNG供应;日本决定加入英国主导的霍尔木兹在线多边谈判。

LNG ships avoided Strait of Hormuz since Feb 28 (conflict outbreak); ~1/5 of world LNG supply disrupted; Japan joins UK-led online Hormuz talks

霍尔木兹断供已持续逾五周,影响全球五分之一LNG贸易,迫使亚洲各国争相寻求替代方案。日本加入英国主导的谈判显示美国盟友开始构建多边框架应对航运安全危机,但各方在实际开放航道的行动上仍存在明显分歧。

LNG ships have avoided the strait since the conflict broke out on February 28, disrupting about a fifth of the world's supply of the fuel

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

韩国提出170亿美元预算应对能源危机

韩国总统李在明呼吁国民"节省每一滴燃料"并敦促国会迅速通过170亿美元额外预算;韩国同时被报道正考虑向伊朗付款以采购中东石油和天然气。

South Korea: $17B extra budget proposed; 'save every drop of fuel'; considering paying Iran for Middle Eastern oil and gas

韩国对伊朗能源危机的响应已从节能呼吁升级至财政刺激和直接与伊朗的能源谈判,体现其能源对外依存度极高的战略脆弱性。考虑向伊朗付款若成真将面临严峻的美国制裁压力,形成地缘政治两难困境。

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung urged citizens to 'save every drop of fuel,' ramping up an official call for energy conservation

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

亚洲各国分化应对霍尔木兹危机

特朗普呼吁各国自行开放霍尔木兹后,亚洲各国采取分裂化应对策略;印度截至2026年3月财年国防出口激增62%至41亿美元;伊拉克开始通过叙利亚出口石油;高湾国家考虑修建绕过霍尔木兹的新管道。

India defence exports: +62% to $4.1B in FY to March 2026; Iraq began oil exports via Syria; Gulf states considering pipeline bypass of Hormuz

亚洲地区在霍尔木兹问题上呈现明显分化:印度借机提升防务出口并强化战略地位,日本选择多边外交途径,韩国寻求直接与伊朗谈判。伊拉克绕道叙利亚的石油新路线与海湾管道替代方案预示中东能源物流格局的深层重组。

India defence exports surged 62% to $4.1 billion in fiscal year to March

@reutersasia ↗
Crypto HIGH

谷歌白皮书:量子系统数分钟可破解比特币

谷歌发布新白皮书称,量子计算系统可能仅需数分钟即可破解比特币加密;Solana联创Toly指出当前量子计算机可因数分解约5比特长度的数字,每两年约增加1比特。

Google whitepaper: quantum system could crack Bitcoin in 'minutes'; current QC: ~5 bits factorable; ~1 bit added per 2 years (Toly estimate)

谷歌白皮书触发加密社区对比特币长期安全性的广泛讨论,但Toly的技术分析指出当前量子计算机仍停留在约5比特因数分解水平,距威胁Bitcoin ECDSA所需的数千比特还有极大差距,鹰派认为这是长期结构性威胁,鸽派认为实际风险窗口仍在遥远未来。

Google's new whitepaper says it could take only minutes for a quantum system to crack Bitcoin.

@thestreet ↗
宏观 HIGH

美油价破108美元周涨25%,UBS示警或达150美元

美国油价突破108美元/桶,过去一周涨幅达25%,较特朗普全国演讲后每桶上涨近10美元,UBS警告4月底前油价存在升至150美元的风险,欧洲柴油期货亦升至2022年以来最高水平。

WTI >$108/barrel; +25% week-on-week; +~$10 post-Trump address; UBS flags $150 risk by end of April; Europe diesel futures highest since 2022

特朗普对伊朗发表强硬讲话是触发本轮油价急涨的直接催化剂,市场正在消化伊朗石油供应可能进一步中断的风险溢价。部分分析人士认为石油美元体系正在经历类似1970年代黄金脱钩的历史性重构,油价"正常"区间已被打破。能源冲击正全面传导至LNG、欧洲柴油等多类能源品种,德国化学工业三月已感受到"全面冲击"。

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $108/barrel, now up +25% over the last week. That's nearly +$10/barrel since President Trump's "address to the nation" last night.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

英国通胀预期跳升,CPI预期从3%升至3.5%

英国央行3月调查显示,消费者预期CPI通胀率从3%升至3.5%,12个月价格增长预期从3.4%升至3.7%,企业年度自身价格通胀预期为3.5%,均指向能源成本上涨。

BoE Poll: Expected CPI 3.5% in March (from 3%); 12-month price growth expectations 3.7% vs 3.4%; business own-price inflation 3.5% (3-month to March); driven by rising energy costs

英国通胀预期全面升温,能源成本是主要推手,与中东冲突推升油价的宏观背景高度吻合。这一数据将显著收窄英国央行的降息空间,英国央行同步调整决策者面板数据的发布日期安排,市场需重新评估政策路径。

BoE Poll: Expected CPI inflation rises to 3.5% in March from 3%

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

欧央行官员齐发谨慎信号,4月决策方向不明

欧央行立陶宛央行行长Simkus表示需对利率保持谨慎,4月行动尚言之过早;Panetta警告能源市场紧张对通胀、增长和金融稳定构成多重威胁,能源供应正常化的不利情景已推迟至2026年底至2027年。

ECB Simkus: 'Caution needed on rates'; 'Too early to say what we'll need to do in April'; Panetta: adverse scenario for energy normalization pushed to Q4 2026–2027; household confidence declining

欧央行官员在能源冲击面前普遍趋于保守,能源供应正常化时间线被大幅推后。Panetta特别警示非银金融中介的杠杆率和流动性在急性压力下可能不足,并指出长期利率上涨与新兴市场资本外流同步发生,反映全球投资者对较安全资产偏好增强。

ECB's Simkus: Caution needed on rates as situation is changing.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

Claude Code泄露与Mercor AI训练数据外泄引发国家安全警报

同一周内发生两起重大AI安全事件:Claude Code系统提示遭泄露,以及Mercor AI将来自几乎所有主要AI实验室、价值数十亿美元的SOTA训练数据泄露给中国,被认定为重大国家安全问题。

Claude Code system prompt leak; Mercor AI leak of SOTA training data from 'every major lab'; 'Billions and billions of value'; 'major national security issue'; data accessible to China

a16z合伙人Marc Andreessen将两起事件定性为"以锁定方式实现AI安全"路径的彻底终结,认为依靠保密维护AI安全的策略已宣告失败。SOTA训练数据流向中国意味着美国AI研究的核心竞争优势可能遭到严重侵蚀,引发业界对现行AI安全治理模式的根本性反思。

First the Claude Code leak and now this. In the same week. "AI safety" by way of "we'll lock it up" is just totally dead. Kaput. Pushing up daisies.

@pmarca ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉北欧注册量大幅回升,挪威涨178%

新款Model Y推出后,特斯拉在挪威、瑞典、丹麦的注册量分别同比上涨178%、144%和96%。

Norway +178%, Sweden +144%, Denmark +96% Tesla registrations; attributed to new Model Y pent-up demand release

此前关于马斯克政治立场令特斯拉品牌在欧洲遭受不可逆损害的判断被数据否定,北欧销量回升表明大多数需求只是推迟到新款车型发布。这与同期马斯克将特斯拉战略重心大幅转向机器人和自动驾驶的消息形成有趣对照,品牌叙事与战略叙事均面临重新定价。

"In Norway, Sweden and Denmark, Tesla registrations were up by 178%, 144% and 96%." I remember all the grandstanding in DK about how Tesla was irreversibly damaged by Elon because sales dipped for a second. Turns out most were just waiting for new Model Y!

@dhh ↗
美股 HIGH

马斯克彻底重构特斯拉,转向人形机器人与自动驾驶

Elon Musk正将特斯拉战略重心从电动汽车硬性转向人形机器人和自动驾驶汽车,前特斯拉总裁Jon McNeill对这一重大战略转型发表了看法。

Tesla hard pivot from EVs to humanoid robots and self-driving cars; Elon Musk 'ripping up Tesla again'; former president Jon McNeill reacts

特斯拉的战略重构可能从根本上改变公司估值逻辑,从传统汽车制造商重新定位为AI与机器人平台。此举与马斯克在xAI等方向的整体布局一脉相承,但也引发对特斯拉核心EV业务资源分配和执行力的市场担忧。

Elon Musk is ripping up Tesla again, making a hard shift from EVs to humanoid robots and self-driving cars. His friend and former Tesla president Jon McNeill has thoughts

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

以军打击德黑兰IRGC基地及大不里士弹道导弹库

以色列国防军对伊朗革命卫队地面部队基地和德黑兰移动指挥所实施打击,并摧毁大不里士地区导弹部队弹道导弹储存设施。

IDF struck: IRGC Ground Forces base + mobile command post in Tehran; ballistic missile storage site in Tabriz area

此次打击目标覆盖伊朗首都德黑兰的革命卫队核心指挥体系和战略纵深的弹道导弹储存设施,显示冲突强度持续升级。大不里士弹道导弹库遭打击具有战略意义,直接削弱伊朗的远程打击能力储备,与特朗普"加大攻击力度"的表态形成呼应。

🎯STRUCK: An IRGC Ground Forces base and a mobile command post used by regime commanders in Tehran. Additionally, a ballistic missile storage site belonging to the missile unit in the Tabriz area was also struck.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普扬言将伊朗炸回石器时代,冲突进入第五周

特朗普在全国直播讲话中宣称将伊朗炸回石器时代,声称战争目标接近完成,但同时暗示局势将进一步升级而非和谈,冲突自2月28日爆发已持续五周。

Trump: 'We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong'; war goals 'nearly complete'; conflict in fifth week since ~Feb 28

特朗普的强硬表态彻底粉碎了市场对快速和谈的预期,多个信源确认这是导致油价单周飙升25%的直接导火索。伊朗内部出现矛盾信号:总统表达和谈意愿,但军方领导层坚称战争持续到敌方投降,局势走向充满变数。

"We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Hear more of what President Trump said in his prime-time address on Iran on the Daybreak Europe podcast.

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

LNG船只回避霍尔木兹,全球约五分之一供应受阻

自2月28日冲突爆发以来,LNG船只已持续回避霍尔木兹海峡,造成全球约五分之一LNG供应中断,海湾国家正紧急探讨新建绕道管道。

LNG ships avoided Hormuz strait since Feb 28; ~1/5 of world LNG supply disrupted; Gulf states exploring bypass pipeline (modeled on Saudi East-West pipeline); high cost and complexity

霍尔木兹海峡封锁已演变为系统性全球能源危机,欧洲柴油期货随之升至2022年以来最高水平。海湾国家紧急探讨仿效沙特东西管道的绕道方案,但因成本高昂且工程复杂,短期内难以形成有效替代供给,能源供应缺口在未来数月仍将持续。

LNG ships have avoided the strait since the conflict broke out on February 28, disrupting about a fifth of the world's supply of the fuel

@business ↗
Crypto HIGH

Circle收购不可变稳定币协议Liquity实体

Circle收购了去中心化稳定币协议Liquity的开发实体,但Liquity合约无管理员密钥、无治理机制且不可变,Circle实际上无法对协议本身进行任何修改。

Circle acquired Liquity; no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts; Circle owns entity but cannot modify protocol

加密分析师将此次收购定性为"竞争消除"而非DeFi业务扩张,认为Circle旨在将最接近真正去中心化的稳定币竞争者纳入旗下但实际无法控制。这一结构性悖论引发市场对稳定币行业整合逻辑的广泛讨论,也可能触发监管层对Circle市场行为的审视。

circle just acquired the only stablecoin protocol designed to be unacquirable. liquity has no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts. circle owns the entity but literally cannot modify the protocol. this isn't a DeFi expansion play. this is competitive elimination. buy

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

WTI油价飙升至108美元,周涨幅达25%

WTI原油价格因特朗普全国电视讲话后急涨至108美元/桶,较上周上涨逾25%,牛津经济研究院预计Q2布伦特原油均价达113美元/桶,霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁被视为基准假设。

WTI $108/bbl, +25% WoW, +$10/bbl post-Trump address; Oxford Economics: Brent $113/bbl avg Q2; UBS flags tail risk of $150 by end of April

多方来源确认油价急涨主要源于特朗普讲话令停火预期破灭,霍尔木兹海峡封锁状态延续。牛津经济研究院强调军事时间线与经济时间线的解耦——即便短期停火也无法迅速修复供应链。UBS进一步警告若局势持续,4月底油价存在升至150美元的尾部风险,OPEC+预计周日会议将考虑进一步提高产量配额作为应对预案。

Ryan Sweet of @OxfordEconomics sees brent crude $113 a barrel on average for Q2, even with a potential near-term end to military action. "The military timeline differs from the economic one. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, & the baseline assumes that it won't

@lisaabramowicz1 ↗
宏观 HIGH

美银逆转英国央行预测:2026年将加息两次

美银全球研究将英国央行利率预测从原来的2026年两次降息大幅逆转为6月和7月各加息25个基点,英国央行DMP调查同步显示企业预期CPI通胀从3.0%升至3.5%,创近两年最大单月跳升。

BofA: 2×25bps BoE hikes June & July 2026 (prior: cuts in June & September 2026); BoE DMP poll: expected CPI 3.5% in March vs 3.0% prior; expected 12-month price growth 3.7% vs 3.4%

美银的预测逆转直接反映了中东战争推高能源成本的货币政策连锁效应,将英国央行从降息周期拉入加息轨道。BoE调查数据与美银预测高度吻合,显示企业层面的通胀预期已广泛重新定价。BOE行长贝利此前一天刚表示市场在收紧方向上定价过于超前,但调查数据显示市场的担忧有其基本面支撑。

BofA Global Research expects BoE to deliver two 25 bps interest rate hikes each in June and July 2026 vs prior forecast of cuts in June and September this year

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

俄油出口能力遭无人机袭击削减百万桶/日

无人机袭击俄罗斯能源设施(包括巴什科尔托斯坦共和国乌法炼油厂引发大火)导致俄石油出口能力下降约100万桶/天,俄政府同步宣布对汽油出口禁令延续至7月底。

Russia oil export capacity cut ~1mbpd by drone strikes; gasoline export ban extended to end of July; drones hit Ufa refinery in Bashkortostan

俄罗斯石油供应同时承受无人机打击与出口禁令双重压制,在霍尔木兹封锁已大幅收紧全球供应的背景下进一步加剧能源市场紧张。乌法炼油设施是俄罗斯重要精炼产能中心,此次受损将加重全球成品油供应压力。

Russia's oil export capacity cut by 1mbpd by drone strikes - Sources

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

3月ISM制造业呈滞胀特征,价格指数飙升

3月ISM制造业数据显示支付价格分项大幅攀升,而就业分项持续收缩,呈现典型滞胀信号;ADP数据显示1-19人小企业3月新增就业11.2万,为2024年2月以来最佳表现。

ISM Manufacturing March: prices paid surging, employment in contraction; ADP small firms (1-19 employees) +112k in March (best since Feb 2024); ISM imports component still sharply off 2025 low

ISM价格飙升与就业收缩并存形成滞胀组合,令美联储陷入两难,无法同时应对通胀与就业恶化。小企业就业的相对韧性提供了局部对冲,但整体数据格局对风险资产不利,与BofA对英国央行的加息预测一道强化了全球通胀重新定价的主线。

Stagflationary vibe to March ISM data with prices paid (blue) surging and employment (orange) remaining in contraction

@lizannsonders ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

Mercor泄露多家顶尖AI实验室SOTA训练数据

AI招聘平台Mercor发生数据泄露,多家主要AI实验室价值数十亿美元的SOTA训练数据外流并可能已流向中国,与Claude Code系统提示词泄露同在一周内发生,被多位科技界人士定性为重大国家安全事件。

Mercor leak: SOTA training data from "every major lab"; Claude Code system prompt leaked same week; described as "billions and billions of value" — major national security issue

pmarca和Garry Tan认为两起泄露在同一周并发宣告了"通过封锁保障AI安全"策略的彻底失败,系统性安全防线已不可依赖。这对主张通过访问控制限制AI扩散的监管路线构成直接挑战,同时强化了关于前沿AI模型已无法对地缘政治对手保密的论断。

First the Claude Code leak and now this. In the same week. "AI safety" by way of "we'll lock it up" is just totally dead. Kaput. Pushing up daisies.

@pmarca ↗
美股 HIGH

礼来肥胖症口服药Foundayo获FDA批准

礼来公司肥胖症口服药Foundayo获得美国FDA批准,直接与诺和诺德的Wegovy口服版展开市场竞争,分析人士预计双药上市将推动定价下降并扩大患者可及性。

Eli Lilly Foundayo: FDA approved; competes directly with Novo Nordisk Wegovy pill; GLP-1 oral obesity market worth billions

第二款口服GLP-1肥胖症药物的批准标志着该市场竞争进入新阶段,礼来与诺和诺德两强争霸格局正式形成。竞争加剧预期拉低价格,有利于患者可及性提升,但同时将压缩单品收入预期,迫使两家公司加快通过适应症扩展或下一代产品维持增长叙事。

Another pill to fight obesity won US approval, pitting Lilly's Foundayo against Novo's Wegovy pill in the race to dominate a market worth billions. Patients and consumers may also be winners, as prices fall and selection expands.

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

KKR美洲并购基金逆势完成募资230亿美元

KKR为其最新美洲并购基金募集约230亿美元,在私募股权行业整体低迷及地缘政治不确定性高企的背景下逆势完成超大规模募资。

KKR Americas buyout fund: ~$23bn raised; "defying an industry slump"

KKR的募资成功显示顶级PE平台在市场动荡中仍能获取机构长期资本的青睐,规模效应和品牌溢价形成防御壁垒。这与同期对冲基金3月普遍亏损形成对比,表明资本正向非流动性的长期工具迁移以规避短期波动。

KKR raises approximately $23 billion for its latest Americas buyout fund, defying an industry slump

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

美股五周来每逢周四周五必跌成规律性结构

伊朗战争爆发五周以来,美国股市形成每逢周四和周五下跌的固定模式,3月全球主要对冲基金(以稳健收益著称)普遍录得亏损,战争冲击被认为是主因。

SPX collapsing every Thursday & Friday for 5 weeks; major hedge funds known for steady returns lost money in March; SPX cash at 6,475

战争风险溢价每周末重新定价已形成条件反射式的抛售节奏,令传统的均值回归策略持续失效,这也解释了为何稳定收益型对冲基金3月普遍受损。技术面分析人士观察到"强力轧空后迅速失败并回落"的模式持续,认为趋势性低点将在未来数月而非短期内确立。

Five weeks into the Middle East war, the US stock market has settled into a predictable pattern of collapsing every Thursday and Friday

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

CENTCOM:伊朗海军停航防空基本摧毁,战役第五周

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在战役第五周评估中宣称,伊朗海军已不见踪影、飞机停飞,防空和导弹防御系统已"大体被摧毁",称取得"不可否认的进展"。

Week 5 of campaign; Iran navy not sailing, aircraft grounded, air/missile defense "largely destroyed" — Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM

CENTCOM的评估代表迄今最强硬的美国官方公开表态,措辞"undeniable progress"具有明确的政治传播功能。然而伊朗革命卫队同日警告若工业目标再遭打击将发动"更为痛苦"的报复,伊朗总统同时向美国选民喊话寻求外交压力,显示战争远未接近终局。

"Now in our 5th week of the campaign, it is my operational assessment that we are making undeniable progress. We don't see their navy sailing. We don't see their aircraft flying, and their air and missile defense systems have largely been destroyed." - Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM

@centcom ↗
地缘 HIGH

IDF空袭德黑兰IRGC基地及大不里士弹道导弹仓库

以色列国防军宣布打击德黑兰的伊朗革命卫队地面部队基地和指挥所,以及大不里士地区的弹道导弹存储设施;伊朗革命卫队随后宣布报复性打击了海湾国家美联钢铁和铝设施。

IDF: IRGC base + mobile command post in Tehran struck; ballistic missile storage in Tabriz area struck; IRGC: retaliated against US-linked steel/aluminum facilities in Gulf states

打击范围扩展至伊朗首都本土和战略导弹库,显示升级烈度明显加剧。伊朗对海湾国家工业目标的报复将冲突地理范围向外扩展,增加了海湾地区的战争风险溢价,并对依赖海湾供应链的全球工业原材料市场形成新的不确定性来源。

🎯STRUCK: An IRGC Ground Forces base and a mobile command post used by regime commanders in Tehran. Additionally, a ballistic missile storage site belonging to the missile unit in the Tabriz area was also struck.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普扬言将伊朗"打回石器时代"引发油价急涨

特朗普在全国电视讲话中扬言将伊朗"带回石器时代",暗示局势将进一步升级而非走向和谈,讲话后WTI油价急涨约10美元/桶,美债收益率同步上升,市场停火预期急剧降温。

Trump: "We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong"; oil +$10/bbl post-speech; Treasury yields rise

特朗普讲话彻底打压了市场对近期停火的预期,油价、美债收益率随之同步急升。分析人士认为这标志着美国明确进入战争升级通道,彭博社评论则指出特朗普在更宏观的战略地图上已承认失败,形成事实与叙事的深刻矛盾。

"We're going to bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Hear more of what President Trump said in his prime-time address on Iran on the Daybreak Europe podcast.

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续,马克龙称军事解决不现实

霍尔木兹海峡自2月28日冲突爆发以来实际封锁,约全球五分之一LNG供应受阻;法国总统马克龙在访日期间明确表示海峡"无法通过军事手段解除封锁",只能与伊朗协商解决。

Hormuz effectively closed since Feb 28; ~1/5 of world LNG supply disrupted; Macron: "unrealistic to free the Strait of Hormuz by military means"; Iran assures Philippines safe passage

马克龙的外交立场与美国的军事路线形成明显的盟友内部裂痕,表明欧洲主要大国已不愿跟随升级节奏。伊朗向菲律宾保证安全通行的声明则显示德黑兰仍在选择性运用霍尔木兹作为外交杠杆,通道并非完全封死,而是被用作精准施压工具。

France's President Macron: Hormuz Strait can only reopen in concertation with Iran

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

油价飙升逾25%,WTI破110美元创2022年6月来新高

WTI原油价格单周上涨逾25%至110美元/桶,创2022年6月以来最高收盘价;牛津经济研究院预测布伦特原油Q2均价达113美元/桶;瑞银警告4月底存在冲至150美元的风险。

WTI >$110/bbl, +25% WoW, highest close since Jun 2022; Brent Q2 avg $113 (Oxford Econ); UBS $150/bbl risk by end of April; Brent +7% intraday

特朗普"极端打击"演讲直接触发油价暴涨,市场彻底放弃近期停火预期。牛津经济研究院明确区分"军事时间线"与"经济时间线"——即便军事行动短期结束,霍尔木兹海峡实质性关闭已对经济造成独立且持续的冲击,能源通胀压力将延续整个Q2乃至更长时间。

Ryan Sweet of @OxfordEconomics sees brent crude $113 a barrel on average for Q2, even with a potential near-term end to military action. "The military timeline differs from the economic one. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, & the baseline assumes that it won't

@lisaabramowicz1 ↗
宏观 HIGH

美银将英国央行预测反转为2026年连续两次加息

美国银行全球研究部将英国央行货币政策预测从原来的降息彻底逆转,改为预期2026年6月和7月各加息25个基点,2027年再进行三次降息。

BofA: BoE 2x +25bps hikes Jun & Jul 2026 (vs prior forecast of cuts in Jun & Sep 2026); then 3x cuts in Apr, Jul, Nov 2027

能源价格冲击大幅推升英国通胀预期,英国央行调查显示企业通胀预期从3.0%升至3.5%、12个月价格预期升至3.7%,迫使美银彻底反转原有降息预测路径。尽管英国央行行长Bailey此前警告市场不应过度抢跑收紧预期,英国国债市场仍已开始定价加息路径。

BofA Global Research expects BoE to deliver two 25 bps interest rate hikes each in June and July 2026 vs prior forecast of cuts in June and September this year

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

印度卢比单日涨幅创12年来新高,RBI重拳压制离岸做空

印度卢比大涨2%、升破93关口,创超12年来最大单日涨幅,系印度央行(RBI)大力限制用于做空卢比的1490亿美元/日离岸市场准入所致。

INR +2%, above 93; biggest single-day jump in 12+ years; RBI restricting $149B/day offshore NDF market; Indian clearing house raises margin on USD/INR forwards

印度央行通过限制离岸无本金远期外汇(NDF)市场准入打压做空卢比头寸,印度政府公开支持央行的激进干预。此举引发卢比急速反弹,但外汇分析师指出RBI的行政手段可能只是暂时压制投机需求而非解决根本问题。

India's rupee just saw its biggest jump in over 12 years as the RBI continues its crackdown on offshore bets against the currency. Bhaskar Dutta explains how the central bank is restricting access to a $149 billion-a-day market often used to short the rupee:

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

霍尔木兹封锁已中断全球五分之一LNG供应,OPEC+周日或再增产

自2月28日冲突爆发以来,LNG船只持续回避霍尔木兹海峡,已中断全球约五分之一的LNG供应;OPEC+两名内部人士透露,周日会议或将进一步上调产量配额以缓解封锁压力。

~1/5 global LNG supply disrupted since Feb 28; OPEC+ Sunday meeting: likely to weigh further quota hike — 2 OPEC+ sources

能源供应链中断已持续五周,波及范围从原油扩展至LNG,黑石、ECB等机构相继警告长期经济影响。海湾国家正评估修建绕过霍尔木兹海峡新管道的可行性,但成本高昂、施工周期漫长;OPEC+增产能否弥补实际供应损失存疑。

LNG ships have avoided the strait since the conflict broke out on February 28, disrupting about a fifth of the world's supply of the fuel

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

3月ISM显示滞胀特征,华尔街上调衰退风险预测

3月ISM制造业PMI价格支付分项大幅攀升、就业分项持续萎缩,呈现明显滞胀信号;华尔街机构同步上调衰退风险;BlackRock增持德国国债空头,押注欧洲出现"大幅"通胀回升。

March ISM: prices paid surging + employment in contraction (stagflationary); Wall Street raising recession risks (Bloomberg); BlackRock adding bearish German bund positions on 'pretty large inflation uptick'

油价冲击正通过成本渠道向经济内部传导,制造业出现典型"高通胀+低就业"滞胀组合。英国央行调查显示英国企业计划推出近两年来最大幅度的价格上调;ADP数据中小型企业新增就业11.2万(2024年2月以来最佳)提供了局部亮点,但整体经济前景仍受制于能源冲击。

Stagflationary vibe to March ISM data with prices paid (blue) surging and employment (orange) remaining in contraction

@lizannsonders ↗
美股 HIGH

美股连续五周逢周四周五暴跌,衰退风险预测全面升温

自伊朗战争爆发以来,美国股市已连续五周出现周四、周五规律性下跌模式,标普500现货回到6475点;华尔街机构全面上调衰退风险预测。

SPX cash 6475; 5-week Thursday/Friday collapse pattern; Wall Street raising recession risks (Bloomberg); some world's biggest hedge funds lost money in March

市场在战争背景下形成"逢周末减仓"的集体行为模式,对周末风险事件的系统性规避已制度化。特朗普演讲摧毁短暂反弹预期,对冲基金3月普遍录得亏损,华尔街正重新评估战争对企业盈利和经济增长的长期损害。

Five weeks into the Middle East war, the US stock market has settled into a predictable pattern of collapsing every Thursday and Friday

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

KKR新美洲并购基金逆势募资约230亿美元

KKR为其最新美洲并购基金募资约230亿美元,在私募股权行业普遍低迷的背景下逆势创下佳绩。

KKR Americas buyout fund: ~$23B raised, 'defying an industry slump'

在高油价和衰退担忧压制风险资产的环境下,KKR能完成如此规模的募资,显示顶级PE机构的品牌溢价和机构投资者对长期另类资产配置的坚定承诺,与整体PE行业融资低迷形成鲜明对比。

KKR raises approximately $23 billion for its latest Americas buyout fund, defying an industry slump

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

CENTCOM五周评估:伊朗海军不出航、空军不飞行、防空系统基本被摧毁

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将在开战第五周作出正式评估:伊朗海军不见出航、空军不见飞行,伊朗防空和导弹防御系统已基本被摧毁。

CENTCOM Week 5 operational assessment: Iran navy not sailing, aircraft not flying, air & missile defense 'largely destroyed' — Adm. Brad Cooper

这是迄今美方最明确的战场评估,宣示美以联军已取得制空权并基本瓦解伊朗区域防御体系。然而彭博专栏认为美国在战略层面已经失败——赢了战场但输了大局;而IRGC则宣称将战斗持续到"敌人投降",两者对战争走向形成截然不同的叙事框架。

"Now in our 5th week of the campaign, it is my operational assessment that we are making undeniable progress. We don't see their navy sailing. We don't see their aircraft flying, and their air and missile defense systems have largely been destroyed." - Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM

@centcom ↗
地缘 HIGH

前伊朗外长哈拉齐在美以空袭中重伤,妻子遇难

正主导通过巴基斯坦渠道安排伊朗官员与JD万斯会面谈判的伊朗前外长卡马尔·哈拉齐,在美以联军对其住所的打击中身受重伤,其妻子在袭击中遇难。

Kamal Kharazi (Iran's Former FM, overseeing Iran-Pakistan-JD Vance talks): seriously wounded; wife killed in US-Israeli strike on his home

哈拉齐是伊朗当前外交斡旋的核心人物,此次斩首式打击可能严重中断通过巴基斯坦渠道与美方接触的秘密外交进程,进一步收窄和平解决空间。此事件与马克龙"武力打开霍尔木兹不现实"的表态同日发生,显示局势正朝更深度升级方向演进。

BREAKING: Kamal Kharazi, Iran's Former Foreign Minister, has been seriously wounded following US-Israeli strikes on his home that also killed his wife. Kharazi has been overseeing talks with Pakistan to arrange a possible meeting between Iranian officials and JD Vance.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

马克龙:武力打开霍尔木兹"不现实",批评特朗普每天自相矛盾

法国总统马克龙明确表示,以军事手段强行开放霍尔木兹海峡"不现实",海峡只能通过与伊朗协商方式重新开放,并公开批评特朗普每天在伊朗问题上立场"自相矛盾"。

Macron: 'unrealistic' to open Hormuz by force; 'can only reopen in concertation with Iran'; Trump 'contradicting himself every day on Iran'; Japan joins UK-led Hormuz talks; Trump calls on Japan, France, South Korea, China to guard strait

法国的公开批评代表欧洲主要盟友与特朗普军事路线之间产生明显裂痕。特朗普同时呼吁日本、法国、韩国和中国分担霍尔木兹守护责任,日本已决定加入英国主导的相关在线磋商——盟友体系正在围绕伊朗政策重新站队。

BREAKING: France's President Macron says it is "unrealistic" to open Hormuz Strait by force. Macron also says President Trump is "contradicting" himself every day on Iran.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

IRGC宣布打击海湾国家美联设施,警告下次回应将"更加痛苦"

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布已打击海湾国家境内与美国相关的钢铁和铝业设施,并警告若伊朗工业目标再次遭袭,德黑兰"下一次回应将更加痛苦"。

IRGC: struck US-linked steel & aluminium facilities in Gulf states; 'strikes were a warning'; 'next response will be more painful' if Iranian industries hit again

IRGC将打击范围从本土防御扩展至海湾国家工业基础设施,是典型的不对称升级策略,直接威胁海湾产油国的工业产能和供应链。此举向沙特、UAE等美国盟友发出明确警告,或将推动海湾国家更积极寻求外交解决,以保护自身基础设施免受波及。

Iran's Revolutionary Guards: We targeted US-linked steel and aluminium facilities in Gulf states - State media

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

中国指控美以发动"非法"打击,俄罗斯表示准备协助调解

中国正式指控美国和以色列对伊朗发动"非法"空袭;克里姆林宫表示俄罗斯在必要时准备协助解决伊朗战争;普京同日会见埃及外长,并计划与沙特王储萨勒曼通话。

China: US-Israel strikes on Iran are 'illegal'; Kremlin: Russia ready to help resolve Iran war; Putin meets Egypt FM; Putin-MBS call planned (TASS); Russia faces oil export capacity cut of 1mbpd from drone strikes

中俄正就伊朗战争构建共同外交叙事并强化对中东的战略渗透,普京分别与埃及、沙特接触,试图将俄罗斯定位为区域调解人。中国将美以行动定性为"非法"而非仅"谴责",为潜在的更强硬外交或经济反应保留了法律依据。

BREAKING: China accuses the US and Israel of launching "illegal" strikes on Iran.

@kobeissiletter ↗
Crypto HIGH

Drift攻击者利用CCTP设计缺陷在5-20分钟内跨链转移2.3亿美元

Drift协议遭受攻击,攻击者利用Circle跨链转账协议(CCTP)"销毁-铸造"机制的不可逆设计,在任何人类能干预之前的5-20分钟窗口期内成功跨链转移2.3亿美元,Circle无法在流程中途暂停CCTP。

$230M moved cross-chain via CCTP burn-and-mint; 5-20 min irreversible exit window; Tether paused Solana mesh in 90 min but Circle structurally cannot pause CCTP mid-flow

此次事件暴露了跨链桥协议的结构性安全盲点——CCTP的架构决策使得合约执行中途暂停在技术上不可能。与Tether能在90分钟内暂停Solana网络形成对比,揭示不同稳定币协议在危机响应能力上的根本差异,对跨链基础设施的安全设计假设构成重大挑战。

CCTP's burn-and-mint design gave the drift attacker a 5-20 minute irreversible exit window to move $230m cross-chain before any human could intervene. tether paused their solana mesh in 90 minutes. circle couldn't pause CCTP mid-flow if they wanted to. this is now the exploit

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

WTI油价突破110美元,周涨幅达25%

特朗普伊朗讲话后WTI原油价格突破110美元/桶,一周涨幅达25%,布伦特原油单日涨幅超7%,为2022年6月以来最高收盘价走势。

WTI $110/barrel (+10% post-speech, +25% WoW); Brent +7%+; ~$10/barrel increase since Trump address to nation

市场将特朗普讲话解读为战争持续升级的明确信号,油价加速上行。多位分析师警告油价高企将通过企业利润压缩和消费者购买力下降引发经济增速放缓乃至衰退;IMF同日亦指出能源价格上行是当前美国通胀的核心上行风险。

BREAKING: US oil prices surge over +10% to $110/barrel, on track for the highest close since June 2022.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

IMF美国年度磋商:2031年债务超GDP 140%

IMF完成2026年美国第四条款年度磋商,显示2025年GDP增速2%、2026年预测2.4%,但财政赤字维持GDP的7–7.5%,2031年政府债务将超过GDP的140%。

US GDP 2% (2025), 2.4% (2026 proj); deficit 7–7.5% of GDP; debt >140% of GDP by 2031; core PCE back to 2% in H1 2027; employment growth <½ of pre-pandemic pace

IMF对近期美国增长相对乐观,认为关税通胀冲击将随时间消退,但对中长期财政可持续性表达深切担忧。报告同时警告就业增速将不及疫情前五年平均水平的一半,能源价格上行是通胀主要上行风险。

IMF on USA: General government deficit is expected to remain in the 7-7.5 percent of GDP range, with debt exceeding 140 percent of GDP by 2031

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

蓝猫私信旗舰基金遭21.9%赎回申请,上限设5%

Blue Owl将旗下两只私信基金赎回上限设定为5%,旗舰OCIC基金(管理规模约360亿美元)收到约21.9%股份的赎回申请,创1.8万亿美元私信市场主要机构历史纪录。

Blue Owl redemption cap 5%; OCIC ~$36B AUM received 21.9% redemption requests; unprecedented in $1.8T private credit market

市场动荡背景下,机构投资者对私信基金流动性担忧明显升温,Blue Owl事件引发市场对行业性流动性错配风险的高度关注。Apollo旗下Jim Zelter公开为私信市场辩护,称投资者担忧被夸大,行业内部出现明显分歧。

BLUE OWL CAPPED REDEMPTIONS FOR PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS AT 5% Blue Owl is experiencing elevated redemption requests for two of its private credit funds The firm's flagship OCIC, with ~$36 billion in assets under management, received redemption requests of ~21.9% of shares

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

x402支付协议入驻Linux基金会,科技金融巨头联袂背书

x402开放支付协议基金会正式落户Linux基金会,成员涵盖Amazon、American Express、Circle、Cloudflare、Coinbase、Fiserv、Google、Mastercard、Microsoft、Shopify、Stripe、Visa及Solana基金会,推动AI代理自主交易支付基础设施标准化。

x402 Foundation at Linux Foundation; 13+ members: Amazon, Amex, Circle, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Fiserv, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa, Solana Foundation

行业观察人士认为此举标志着AI代理自主支付基础设施建设进入实质阶段,主要支付和云服务商联合背书将加速x402成为行业标准。Solana基金会的加入将区块链原生支付整合进这一生态,被视为加密支付进入主流金融基础设施的重要节点。

BREAKING: @SolanaFndn joins the x402 Foundation at @linuxfoundation Solana Foundation is now a member of the x402 Foundation, joining Amazon, American Express, Circle, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Fiserv, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa, and more. The x402 protocol now has a neutral, open-source home at @linuxfoundation

@solana ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉Q1交付35.8万辆,低于预期创近年最差

特斯拉Q1交付量为358,023辆,低于市场预期的368,900至372,160辆,为近年来最差季度之一,公司核心电动车业务持续承压。

Tesla Q1 deliveries 358,023 vs est 368.9K–372.16K; miss of ~10K–14K units

交付数据低于预期与马斯克向机器人/自动驾驶战略转型同日曝光形成叠加冲击。Barron's指出,特斯拉股价下跌并非仅因交付数字,而是对更深层业务转型的担忧;同期Leapmotor(Stellantis旗下)连续第四季度交付超10万辆,BYD销量亦有所下滑,显示中国电动车市场竞争格局也在演变。

Tesla $TSLA just said it delivered 358,023 EVs in Q1 below expectations of 368.9K

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500 Q1:科技板块5连跌为2002年来最长,SanDisk涨167.7%

标普500 Q1表现分化,科技板块创2002年以来最长连跌纪录(连续5个月下跌),SanDisk以+167.7%领涨全市场,AppLovin以-40.9%垫底;消费必需品和公用事业板块录得稳健正收益。

S&P Tech: 5th straight monthly drop (longest since 2002); Sandisk $SNDK +167.7%; Lumentum $LITE +90.7%; LyondellBasell $LYB +86.1%; Applovin $APP -40.9%

AI资本支出压力、利率水平及供应链中断共同拖累大型科技股,而受益于AI基础设施扩张的存储芯片供应商SanDisk则逆势大涨,公用事业与消费必需品板块的防御性属性凸显。资金明显从成长向稳定性倾斜,与战争引发的宏观不确定性高度相关。

This is how every stock in the S&P 500 performed in Q1 🥇 Sandisk $SNDK +167.7%🟢 🥈 Lumentum $LITE +90.7%🟢 🥉 LyondellBasell $LYB +86.1%🟢 ... 💩 Applovin $APP -40.9% Tech: 5th straight monthly drop, longest since 2002.

@stockmktnewz ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布升级伊朗打击,战争结束无时间表

特朗普在全国直播讲话中宣布将在未来数周内对伊朗实施"极其强硬"打击,未提供战争结束时间表,彻底粉碎市场对快速和解的预期,美国股指期货随即下跌逾1%。

Trump pledged 'extremely hard' hits in coming weeks; no exit plan stated; US stock futures -1%+; war week 5

讲话被市场解读为战争将持续升级的明确信号,全球金融市场随即大幅下跌、油价飙升。马克龙批评特朗普"每天自相矛盾",彭博社分析认为美国已在战略层面受挫但无法公开承认,伊朗IRGC则发声警告下一次回应将"更加痛苦"。

US President Donald Trump rattled global investors with a primetime speech in which he pledged an escalation of attacks on Iran, dashing hopes of a quick end to the war

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

CENTCOM五周战情:伊朗海军停航、防空基本摧毁

中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将评估称,战役进入第5周,伊朗海军已停止出海、航空力量停飞,防空及导弹防御系统"基本被摧毁"。

5th week of campaign; Iran navy not sailing; aircraft not flying; air/missile defense 'largely destroyed' — Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM

美军最高区域指挥官首次以如此明确的措辞宣称伊朗军事能力遭到系统性削弱。与此同时,韩国天弓导弹防御系统在伊朗领空实战亮相,拦截成功率29/30,引发外界对地区军事力量格局重塑的关注。IRGC随即宣称其已袭击海湾国家的美联钢铁铝业设施作为反制。

Now in our 5th week of the campaign, it is my operational assessment that we are making undeniable progress. We don't see their navy sailing. We don't see their aircraft flying, and their air and missile defense systems have largely been destroyed. - Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM

@centcom ↗
地缘 HIGH

霍尔木兹24小时仅5艘船通过,近乎完全封锁

英国外相库珀披露过去24小时仅5艘船通过霍尔木兹海峡;法国总统马克龙表示通过军事手段强行重开该海峡"不切实际",只能通过与伊朗协商解决;伊朗选择性允许菲律宾船只通过。

5 ships through Hormuz in 24 hours; Macron: 'unrealistic' to reopen by force; Iran assured Philippines safe passage; Trump calls on Japan, France, South Korea, China to guard strait

霍尔木兹近乎封锁的现状令全球能源供应链陷入高度紧张,亚洲各国政府已开始斥资数十亿美元应对油价冲击。伊朗对菲律宾的选择性豁免被分析人士解读为"以航道权换政治筹码"的外交策略;英国下周将召集盟国军事计划人员专题讨论霍尔木兹局势。

UK Foreign Secratary Cooper: Just 5 ships passed through Hormuz in the last 24 hrs

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗前外长哈拉齐遭袭重伤,妻亡,谈判渠道受损

伊朗前外长卡迈勒·哈拉齐在美以联合打击其住所的袭击中重伤,其妻子遇难;哈拉齐正主导通过巴基斯坦安排伊朗官员与美国副总统JD万斯秘密会面的外交谈判。

Kamal Kharazi seriously wounded; wife killed in US-Israeli strikes; was overseeing Iran-Pakistan-JD Vance talks

此次袭击时机高度敏感,直接打击了伊朗现存最活跃的外交斡旋渠道。分析人士认为,若谈判渠道因此中断,双方冲突升级风险将显著上升;IRGC此前已警告若伊朗工业设施再遭打击将实施"更痛苦的报复"。

BREAKING: Kamal Kharazi, Iran's Former Foreign Minister, has been seriously wounded following US-Israeli strikes on his home that also killed his wife. Kharazi has been overseeing talks with Pakistan to arrange a possible meeting between Iranian officials and JD Vance.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

解放日一周年:美工厂减少8.9万职位,越南成最大受益者

特朗普"解放日"关税政策实施一周年,美国对外直接投资下降、制造业就业减少约8.9万人,商品贸易逆差上升2%;Bloomberg航运数据分析显示越南已超越中国成为最主要制造业转移目的地。

US FDI lower; US factories -89,000 jobs; US goods trade deficit UP 2%; Vietnam surpassed China as leading manufacturing destination

实证数据显示关税政策的核心目标——制造业回流美国——并未实现,供应链重塑的受益者是越南而非美国本土。多位分析人士指出,特朗普对关税效果的认知与实际数据存在显著落差,但政策并未出现明显调整迹象。

Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2%

@carlquintanilla ↗
Crypto HIGH

加密市场24小时爆仓3.98亿美元,多头占62%

受特朗普伊朗讲话冲击,加密货币市场在过去24小时内共爆仓约3.984亿美元,其中多头爆仓约2.46亿美元,占总量约62%,比特币遭受大幅下跌。

$398.4M liquidated in 24H; $246M long positions (~62% of total)

比特币在特朗普升级战争言论及油价飙升双重压力下被大幅抛售,加密多头仓位遭集中清算。风险资产整体走弱背景下,加密货币与传统风险资产的正相关性再次被验证,市场结构分析人士警告SPX 6100附近仍是近期目标,加密市场料同步承压。

~$398.4M LIQUIDATED FROM THE CRYPTO MARKET IN THE PAST 24H, ~$246M WERE LONG POSITIONS

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto HIGH

Drift攻击利用CCTP设计漏洞将2.3亿美元跨链转移,Circle无法叫停

Drift攻击者利用Circle跨链转账协议(CCTP)的"销毁-铸造"设计,在5–20分钟不可逆窗口内将2.3亿美元完成跨链转移,Circle在技术上无法在过程中暂停CCTP;Tether则在90分钟内暂停了其Solana网状网络。

$230M moved cross-chain via CCTP exploit; 5-20 min irreversible window; Tether paused Solana mesh in 90 min; Circle cannot pause CCTP mid-flow

此事件深刻暴露了去中心化跨链协议在安全响应机制上的系统性缺陷——协议不可变性在正常情况下是信任保障,在紧急安全事件中却成为致命弱点。Tether与Circle的响应速度对比亦引发市场对不同稳定币基础设施安全边界的重新评估。

CCTP's burn-and-mint design gave the drift attacker a 5-20 minute irreversible exit window to move $230m cross-chain before any human could intervene. tether paused their solana mesh in 90 minutes. circle couldn't pause CCTP mid-flow if they wanted to. this is now the exploit

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

WTI原油单日暴涨13%突破112美元

美国WTI原油价格当日飙升超13%至112-113美元/桶,Polymarket预测市场显示本月触及120美元概率达73%。

WTI crude >$112/barrel, +13% on day; $113 reached; 73% probability of $120 this month per Polymarket

特朗普伊朗演讲升级紧张局势,叠加霍尔木兹海峡近乎封锁,油价出现爆炸式上涨。此前空头押注创纪录——$SCO做空原油ETF单月净流入9.77亿美元,为2008年成立以来最大——空头被迫大幅回补。BlackRock芬克警告油价150美元将触发全球衰退,分析师指出即便美国是净出口国,油价仍是全球定价商品,无法以国内折扣价自我供应。

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $112/barrel, now up +13% on the day.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

模型预测:油价维持将推CPI升至3.6%

据模型测算,若当前112美元/桶油价再维持两个月,美国CPI通胀将升至约3.6%,创2023年9月以来最高水平。

WTI $112/barrel sustained 2 months → US CPI ~3.6% (highest since Sept 2023)

高油价通过能源成本传导正在重塑通胀预期。IMF同日发布2026年第四条咨询报告,预测若油价回落核心PCE将在2027年上半年回归2%,但当前能源价格飙升已构成明确上行风险;IMF同时指出美国政府赤字将维持在GDP的7-7.5%,债务2031年前将超GDP的140%。

BREAKING: As US oil prices rise above $112/barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another 2 months, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.6%. This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国汽油价格涨至4.08美元,30年最大月涨幅

美国汽油价格升至4.08美元/加仑,为2022年8月以来最高,过去一个月从3.00美元涨至4.08美元,36%的涨幅是近30年最大单月涨幅。

$4.08/gallon (highest since Aug 2022); +36% in one month ($3.00→$4.08); biggest 1-month spike in 30 years

能源成本上涨正直接冲击美国消费者,柴油价格同样大幅攀升。UBS表示全球经济对油价冲击的敏感度远低于1970年代,但分析师指出"美国是净出口国"的论点是错误的,油价作为全球定价商品无法国内折扣供应。

Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.08 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 36% spike over the last month ($3.00/gallon to $4.08/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years.

@charliebilello ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国初请失业金降至20.2万,显著低于预期

截至上周美国初请失业金人数为202,000,低于预期的212,000及前值211,000;续请失业金184.1万略高于预期的183.65万。

Initial jobless claims: 202K actual vs 212K est vs 211K prior; Continuing claims: 1.841M vs 1.837M est

劳动力市场数据在战争与油价冲击背景下意外走强,显示就业市场仍处"低招聘、低裁员"状态。但IMF警告未来美国就业增速将低于疫情前五年均值的一半,结构性压力持续积聚。

Initial jobless claims down to 202k vs. 212k est. & 211k prior; continuing claims at 1.841M vs. 1.837M est. & 1.816 prior… greatest increases in TX (+1.8k), OR (+1.5k), & NY (+1.4k); greatest decreases in MI (-2.7k), GA (-1.2k), & IA (-1.1)

@lizannsonders ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

3月科技业裁员18720人,同比增24%

2026年3月科技公司宣布裁员18,720人,较2025年3月增加超过24%,科技行业在各行业中裁员总数居首。

Tech sector: 18,720 job cuts in March 2026, +24% YoY vs March 2025; led all industries

AI投资推动企业追求更精简的人员配置,导致科技行业裁员逆势走高。ADP同日数据显示20%的劳动者几乎每天使用AI,30%每周多次使用,仅15%从未使用;与此同时仅22%的劳动者认为工作安全,AI正在重塑就业结构。

BREAKING: Tech companies announced 18,720 job cuts in March — up more than 24% from March 2025.

@polymarket ↗
美股 HIGH

美股开盘蒸发8300亿美元市值

特朗普伊朗战争演讲后美国市场首次开盘,标普500指数市值蒸发8300亿美元。

S&P 500 erases -$830 billion at market open post-Trump Iran speech

演讲打破了对战争快速结束的希望,市场此前短暂反弹后再度深跌。技术分析师指出标普500的100周均线约6100点是近期关键支撑目标,欧洲市场同步承压且面临复活节四天长假流动性风险。华尔街衰退预期进一步升温。

BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases -$830 billion as US markets open for the first time since President Trump's Iran War speech.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉Q1交付35.8万辆,同环比双双下滑

特斯拉2026年Q1全球交付量为358,023辆,低于市场预期的约370,000辆,较上季度下滑约14%,为近年来最差季度之一。

Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries: 358,023 vs ~370-372K est; down ~14% QoQ; multi-year low quarter

交付数据疲软反映特斯拉核心EV业务承压,同时面临全球EV市场竞争加剧。部分分析师认为此次下滑不完全源于交付数字本身,马斯克战略转向——加大人形机器人和自动驾驶投入、减少传统EV聚焦——引发的投资者信心危机才是更深层原因。

Tesla reports 358,000 first-quarter vehicle deliveries, down 14% from last quarter

@cnbc ↗
美股 HIGH

蓝猫资本私募信贷赎回激增54亿,上限设为5%

私募信贷巨头蓝猫资本(Blue Owl Capital)Q1 2026遭遇54亿美元赎回申请激增,创1.8万亿美元私募信贷市场纪录,旗舰基金OCIC(约360亿美元AUM)收到约21.9%的赎回申请,科技贷款基金赎回申请达该基金规模的40.7%,公司被迫将赎回比例上限设为5%。

Blue Owl: $5.4B redemption surge Q1 2026; OCIC (~$36B AUM) ~21.9% redemption requests; tech-lending fund 40.7% of $3B NAV; redemptions capped at 5%

此规模的赎回请求在私募信贷市场史无前例,引发对整个行业流动性压力的广泛担忧。Apollo的Jim Zelter当日亦为私募信贷公开辩护,试图淡化投资者忧虑,显示行业正面临系统性信心危机。Moody's同日报告指出次投资级贷款合约条款放宽已令投资者失去最后防线。

BREAKING: Private credit giant Blue Owl Capital was struck with a "mammoth" $5.4 billion increase in redemption requests in Q1 2026, per FT. Details include: 1. Withdrawal requests at Blue Owl's tech-lending fund have surged to 40.7% per cent of the fund's $3B value 2.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗首席秘密谈判代表哈拉齐遭袭重伤,妻子遇难

伊朗前外长、美伊秘密谈判主导人卡迈勒·哈拉齐(Kamal Kharazi)在美以联合空袭其住所后身负重伤,其妻遇难;哈拉齐此前正主导通过巴基斯坦渠道安排伊朗官员与美国副总统万斯会面的秘密外交努力。

Kamal Kharazi (Iran's lead backchannel negotiator, former FM) seriously wounded; wife killed; was coordinating Iran-JD Vance meeting via Pakistan backchannel

此次袭击直接打击了伊美双方仅存的秘密外交管道,令停火谈判前景更加渺茫。多方来源(半岛电视台、科贝斯信函)均证实哈拉齐在谈判中的核心角色,无论此次袭击是否蓄意针对外交渠道,其对和平进程的破坏效果同等严重。

BREAKING: Kamal Kharazi has been seriously wounded after Israeli strikes hit his home, killing his wife. Kharazi had been the lead negotiator involved in backchannel efforts with Pakistan to arrange a potential meeting between Iranian officials and JD Vance, per Aljazeera

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普伊朗战争演讲承诺升级,打破停战预期

特朗普在全国电视演讲中声称战争"趋于结束",但同时承诺未来数周将对伊朗发动"极其猛烈"的打击,未提供任何具体退出计划,令市场对战争快速结束的希望彻底破灭。

Trump speech: war 'winding down' + vowed 'extremely hard' hits in coming weeks; no exit plan; Hormuz reopening timeline unaddressed

演讲信号相互矛盾,"接近结束"与升级承诺并存,被法国总统马克龙公开指责"每天自相矛盾"。白宫发言人否认了媒体事先基于六位消息人士的报道,显示演讲前的信息管控混乱。伊朗议会议长随即宣称700万伊朗人已准备好参战,IRGC则警告下次还击将"更加痛苦"。

US President Donald Trump rattled global investors with a primetime speech in which he pledged an escalation of attacks on Iran, dashing hopes of a quick end to the war

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

霍尔木兹24小时仅5艘船通过,伊朗向菲律宾开放通行

英国外交大臣库珀透露霍尔木兹海峡过去24小时仅有5艘船只通过,接近完全封锁;与此同时伊朗单独告知菲律宾将允许菲律宾籍及菲律宾目的地船只通行,菲律宾此前9天宣布进入能源紧急状态。

Only 5 ships through Hormuz in last 24hrs (UK Foreign Secretary Cooper); Iran grants bilateral safe passage to Philippines; Philippines declared energy emergency 9 days prior

伊朗以"分而治之"策略逐国开展双边通行谈判,绕过多边框架并瓦解对美国立场的集体支持。中国将霍尔木兹封锁根本原因归咎于美以袭击行动;英国计划下周召集盟国军事规划人员;德中联合声明反对任何单一国家控制海上航道。替代红海航线可能也面临风险,进一步增加全球能源运输不确定性。

UK Foreign Secratary Cooper: Just 5 ships passed through Hormuz in the last 24 hrs

@financialjuice ↗
宏观 HIGH

油价单日飙涨13%突破112美元创记录

美国WTI原油价格单日上涨逾13%,突破112至113美元/桶;美国汽油均价升至4.08美元/加仑,为2022年8月以来最高,月涨幅达36%,为近30年最大单月涨幅。

WTI crude >$113/barrel, +13% intraday; US gas $4.08/gallon (36% monthly spike, 30-year record); Polymarket: 73% chance oil hits $120 this month

UBS认为当前全球经济对油价冲击的敏感度远低于1970年代,但BlackRock CEO芬克警告油价若升至150美元将触发全球衰退。战前大量资金涌入做空石油ETF(SCO单月流入9.77亿美元,为2008年以来之最),方向性判断大幅失误。分析师指出美国作为净出口国仍无法回避全球定价机制,油价对消费端的实质冲击正在显现。

Gas prices in the US have moved up to $4.08 per gallon, their highest level since August 2022. The 36% spike over the last month ($3.00/gallon to $4.08/gallon) is the biggest we've seen in the past 30 years.

@charliebilello ↗
宏观 HIGH

Kobeissi模型:油价若持续两月CPI或升至3.6%

Kobeissi Letter量化模型测算,若WTI原油价格维持在112美元以上水平再持续两个月,美国CPI通胀率将升至约3.6%,为2023年9月以来最高水平。

Model output: US CPI ~3.6% if oil >$112 sustained 2 months (highest since Sept 2023); Fink: $150/barrel = global recession trigger

IMF亦在年度磋商中指出上升的能源价格是美国通胀的主要上行风险,并预计关税效应消退后核心PCE通胀将在2027年上半年才能回归2%目标。UBS建议以石油本身作为最佳抗通胀资产。当前联邦基金利率维持在3.64%,油价冲击压缩了美联储的降息空间。

BREAKING: As US oil prices rise above $112/barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another 2 months, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.6%. This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

蓝猫资本私信贷Q1遭54亿美元赎回,强制封顶5%

蓝猫资本(Blue Owl Capital)在2026年Q1遭遇54亿美元赎回请求激增;旗舰基金OCIC(规模约360亿美元)赎回申请达21.9%,科技贷款基金赎回申请达基金规模(30亿美元)的40.7%;公司随即将所有私信贷基金赎回上限设为5%。

Blue Owl: $5.4B redemption surge Q1 2026; OCIC $36B fund 21.9% redemption requests; tech fund 40.7% of $3B AUM; redemptions capped at 5%; unprecedented in $1.8T private credit market

这是1.8万亿美元私信贷市场中主要机构前所未有的赎回压力,资产管理公司股价随之集体暴跌。Apollo高管为行业发声,淡化系统性风险,但巴菲特表示正密切关注是否出现从私募股权向银行体系传染的迹象。行业普遍转向证券化作为应对赎回潮的防御手段。

BREAKING: Private credit giant Blue Owl Capital was struck with a "mammoth" $5.4 billion increase in redemption requests in Q1 2026, per FT. Details include: 1. Withdrawal requests at Blue Owl's tech-lending fund have surged to 40.7% per cent of the fund's $3B value

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国初请失业金20.2万大幅优于预期

上周美国初请失业金人数降至20.2万,低于市场预期的21.2万及前值21.1万;续请失业金人数184.1万,略高于预期的183.65万;密歇根州降幅最大(-2700人),得克萨斯州增幅最大(+1800人)。

Initial Jobless Claims: 202K actual vs 212K est vs 211K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.841M vs 1.837M est; biggest decrease MI -2.7K; biggest increase TX +1.8K

就业数据好于预期,但IMF指出美国就业增长将不及疫情前五年增速的一半。ADP数据同日显示仅22%工人认为自己的工作安全,劳动力市场虽维持低裁员状态,但低招聘现象同样突出,整体处于观望冻结阶段。

Initial jobless claims down to 202k vs. 212k est. & 211k prior; continuing claims at 1.841M vs. 1.837M est. & 1.816 prior… greatest increases in TX (+1.8k), OR (+1.5k), & NY (+1.4k); greatest decreases in MI (-2.7k), GA (-1.2k), & IA (-1.1)

@lizannsonders ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

微软计划明年推出自研大型AI模型

微软计划在2027年推出自研大型前沿AI模型,此举旨在建立对OpenAI和Anthropic最强AI工具的内部替代方案。

Microsoft: in-house large frontier AI models targeted for next year; positioned as internal alternative to OpenAI & Anthropic

这标志着微软与OpenAI深度绑定关系的重要战略转折。尽管双方存在数十亿美元投资关系,微软仍启动内部大模型开发以降低关键AI能力的外部依赖,与谷歌、Meta等科技巨头全面自研的趋势趋同。同日,特朗普政府宣布将上诉推翻法院对政府使用Anthropic AI技术的禁令。

Microsoft aims to develop large, cutting-edge artificial intelligence models by next year, part of a push to build in-house alternatives to the most powerful AI tools from OpenAI and Anthropic

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉Q1交付35.8万辆,创近年最差季度

特斯拉2026年Q1全球交付358,023辆电动车,低于华尔街预期的约372,160辆,环比下降14%,为近年来最差销售季度之一,EV业务与能源业务均显示疲软。

Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries: 358,023 vs ~372,160 est; -14% QoQ; one of worst quarters in years

交付数字全面低于预期,分析师将其归因于特斯拉核心业务转型困难、EV市场竞争加剧以及品牌情绪受损。特斯拉股价随数据公布后进一步下跌,在市场整体因战争情绪承压的背景下雪上加霜。

Tesla $TSLA just said it delivered 358,023 EVs in Q1 below expectations of 368.9K

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500开盘蒸发逾8300亿美元

美国股市在特朗普伊朗战争演讲后首个交易日开盘即蒸发逾8300亿美元,市场因战争走向不明朗和霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁做出集中负面反应。

S&P 500: -$830B+ erased at open; first trading session after Trump Iran War speech; markets subsequently recovered intraday on Iran-Oman protocol reports

技术分析师指出标普500短期目标看向100周均线约6100点,市场结构因VAR冲击和风险平价基金被动减仓而持续承压。盘中伊朗与阿曼起草霍尔木兹协议的消息令市场反弹至绿盘,显示海峡前景仍是最核心的市场驱动因素。部分分析师认为底部可能在5月形成,6000点为关键支撑位。

BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases -$830 billion as US markets open for the first time since President Trump's Iran War speech.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

蓝猫资本股价暴跌,资产管理板块集体受压

蓝猫资本(Blue Owl Capital)宣布对两只私信贷基金实施5%赎回上限后,资产管理公司股价集体暴跌,成为当日金融板块最大负面催化剂。

Blue Owl Capital shares dive; top asset managers broadly plunge; redemptions capped at 5% on two private credit funds

市场将蓝猫事件视为私信贷行业系统性压力蔓延至二级市场的信号。行业普遍转向证券化作为防御手段,但沃伦·巴菲特公开表示正关注银行体系是否出现来自私募股权的传染迹象,美联储主席鲍威尔则认为系统性风险尚在可控范围。

Shares of top asset managers plunged, after Blue Owl said it will limit redemptions from two of its private credit funds after facing a surge in withdrawal requests.

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗核心谈判代表卡拉齐遇袭,妻子遇难

伊朗前外长、现任美伊秘密谈判核心人物卡拉齐(Kamal Kharazi)在美以联合空袭其住所的行动中身受重伤,其妻当场遇难;卡拉齐此前主导通过巴基斯坦安排伊朗官员与美国副总统万斯秘密会面的后台努力。

Kamal Kharazi seriously wounded; wife killed; Israeli strikes on his home; was lead negotiator for Iran-US backchannel via Pakistan to arrange meeting with JD Vance

此次精准袭击直接切断了正在推进中的伊美秘密外交通道,极大削减了近期通过谈判达成停火的可能性。伊朗革命卫队随即宣布报复性打击,并警告将扩大目标清单并"加速美国从该地区撤离",局势面临螺旋式升级风险。

BREAKING: Kamal Kharazi has been seriously wounded after Israeli strikes hit his home, killing his wife. Kharazi had been the lead negotiator involved in backchannel efforts with Pakistan to arrange a potential meeting between Iranian officials and JD Vance, per Aljazeera

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗允许菲律宾船只过境,同时与阿曼起草霍尔木兹协议

伊朗告知菲律宾将允许菲律宾籍和菲律宾旗帜船只通过霍尔木兹海峡(菲律宾9天前宣布"能源紧急状态");彭博社同日报道伊朗正与阿曼起草霍尔木兹海峡通行协议草案。

Iran allows Philippine-flagged ships through Hormuz (9 days after Philippines energy emergency); Bloomberg: Iran drafting Hormuz protocol with Oman; S&P 500 turned green on the Oman headline

伊朗采取选择性开放策略,向特定国家提供过境权作为外交筹码而非全面解除封锁,凸显其将海峡控制权作为杠杆的战略意图。阿曼草案消息令当日美股盘中从深跌转为绿盘,市场对任何可能缓解能源危机的外交信号高度敏感。

BREAKING: Iran has told the Philippines that it will allow Philippine-bound and Philippine-flagged ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes just 9 days after the country declared an "energy emergency" in one of their worst energy crises in history.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

霍尔木兹24小时仅5艘船通过,英国召集盟国军事规划

英国外交大臣库珀透露,过去24小时内仅有5艘船通过霍尔木兹海峡;英国将于下周召集盟国军事规划人员讨论海峡局势;印度宣布参与英国主导的海峡重开外交倡议;伊朗IRGC法蒂欣部队指挥官在冲突中被击毙。

Only 5 ships through Hormuz in 24 hours (UK FM Cooper); UK to convene allied military planners next week; India joins UK-led Hormuz reopening initiative; IRGC Fatehin unit commander killed

海峡实际封锁程度远比市场预期严峻。法国总统马克龙警告通过军事手段重开海峡"不切实际",德国和中国联合声明反对任何单一国家控制海上通道,多边协调努力升温但实质进展仍不明朗。红海替代航线亦被报道面临风险,全球能源运输网络双重承压。

UK Foreign Secratary Cooper: Just 5 ships passed through Hormuz in the last 24 hrs

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普演讲未给结束战争时间表,59%美国人认为军事行动过度

特朗普全国讲话未透露霍尔木兹海峡何时重开,并暗示可能进一步升级;AP民调显示59%的美国人认为对伊军事行动已走得太远;伊朗议会议长宣称700万伊朗人已准备好参战。

AP poll: 59% of Americans say US military action against Iran has gone too far; Trump speech: no timeline for Hormuz or war end; Iran Parliament Speaker: 7M Iranians ready to join war

特朗普演讲令市场对战争即将收尾的期望彻底破灭,美股应声蒸发逾8300亿美元。白宫新闻秘书公开否认Politico关于"战争正在收尾"的报道,斥其为基于六名匿名消息人士的"假新闻"。战争的国内政治支持度持续下滑,但政策轨迹暂无明显转向信号。

59% of Americans believe U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far, per AP

@unusual_whales ↗
Crypto HIGH

24小时加密市场爆仓近4亿美元,多头占62%

过去24小时内加密货币市场合计约3.984亿美元头寸被强制平仓,其中约2.46亿美元为多头头寸、约1.52亿美元为空头头寸,为伊朗战争局势升级和油价暴涨引发市场动荡所致。

Crypto liquidations: ~$398.4M in 24h; ~$246M longs (~62%); ~$152M shorts

比特币在特朗普伊朗战争演讲升级和油价暴涨的双重压力下大幅下跌,多头遭到集中清洗。此前大量资金涌入做空石油ETF(SCO月度流入9.77亿美元创纪录)亦反映投资者在关键事件前的方向性判断失误,加密与传统风险资产之间的相关性在极端事件下再度收敛。

~$398.4M LIQUIDATED FROM THE CRYPTO MARKET IN THE PAST 24H, ~$246M WERE LONG POSITIONS

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto HIGH

Drift协议遭黑客攻击:2.3亿美元经CCTP跨链转移

Drift DeFi协议遭黑客攻击,攻击者利用CCTP(Circle跨链转账协议)的销毁铸造机制,在5至20分钟不可逆窗口内将约2.3亿美元跨链转移;Tether在90分钟后暂停Solana网格操作,但Circle无法中途暂停CCTP流程。

Drift hack: ~$230M moved cross-chain via CCTP burn-and-mint; 5-20 min irreversible exit window; Tether paused Solana mesh in 90 min; Circle cannot pause CCTP mid-flow

@mert与@aixbt_agent均指出此次攻击根源不在DeFi技术缺陷,而在于人为弱点——点击了不该点击的链接。CCTP架构使得攻击一旦发起,任何中心化机构都无法及时干预,@aixbt_agent将此定性为"可复制的攻击模板",凸显无许可跨链桥在安全事件响应上的结构性缺陷。

CCTP's burn-and-mint design gave the drift attacker a 5-20 minute irreversible exit window to move $230m cross-chain before any human could intervene. tether paused their solana mesh in 90 minutes. circle couldn't pause CCTP mid-flow if they wanted to. this is now the exploit template.

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

油价单日暴涨逾13%美国油气创历史记录

受伊朗战争冲击,美国WTI原油价格单日飙升逾13%,突破每桶112-113美元;美国汽油均价升至4.08美元/加仑,为2022年8月以来最高,过去一个月涨幅达36%,创30年最大月涨幅。

WTI crude >$113/barrel, +13% intraday; US gas $4.08/gallon, +36% in one month (30-year record monthly spike)

Kobeissi Letter模型显示,若当前油价水平持续两个月,美国CPI通胀将升至约3.6%,为2023年9月以来最高。BlackRock芬克警告油价若达150美元将触发全球衰退。市场普遍认为伊朗战争引发的供应冲击是核心驱动力,且霍尔木兹海峡局势悬而未决,短期内难以逆转。

BREAKING: As US oil prices rise above $112/barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another 2 months, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.6%. This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

美初请失业金降至202K大幅优于预期

美国当周初请失业金人数降至202,000,大幅低于市场预期212,000及前值211,000,持续申领人数为184.1万。

Initial jobless claims 202k vs 212k est & 211k prior; continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.837M est

劳动力市场数据强于预期,但IMF指出美国就业增速预计将低于疫情前五年均值的一半,整体呈现"低雇佣、低解雇"僵局态势。油价飙升带来的通胀压力令美联储降息窗口进一步收窄。

Initial jobless claims down to 202k vs. 212k est. & 211k prior; continuing claims at 1.841M vs. 1.837M est. & 1.816 prior… greatest increases in TX (+1.8k), OR (+1.5k), & NY (+1.4k); greatest decreases in MI (-2.7k), GA (-1.2k), & IA (-1.1)

@lizannsonders ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

阿尔忒弥斯二号成功发射宇航员进入深空

NASA阿尔忒弥斯二号载人任务成功发射,将宇航员送入深空;发射前唯一厕所曾出现故障,但于发射前修复并获"可使用"认证。

Artemis II crewed mission launched; astronauts sent into deep space; onboard toilet malfunction resolved pre-launch

此为阿尔忒弥斯计划首次载人飞行,标志着人类重返深空探索的重要里程碑。厕所故障一度引发广泛关注,已在发射前解决,未影响任务执行。

Successful Artemis II Launch Sends Astronauts Into Deep Space

@presssec ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

微软发布三款MAI模型并目标2027年前开发顶级大模型

微软CEO纳德拉宣布将MAI-Transcribe-1(25语言全球最精准转录模型)、MAI-Voice-1(语音生成)和MAI-Image-2(最强图像模型)引入Foundry平台,同时披露公司目标在2027年前开发出与OpenAI和Anthropic竞争的顶级大型AI模型。

MAI-Transcribe-1 (#1 accuracy across 25 languages), MAI-Voice-1, MAI-Image-2 now in Foundry; Microsoft targets large frontier AI model by 2027

微软此举被视为加速构建OpenAI和Anthropic替代方案的战略部署,从依赖外部合作转向自研前沿模型。分析人士认为拥有盈利商业模式的成熟企业将是AI最大受益方,微软的垂直整合战略印证了这一逻辑。

We're bringing our growing MAI model family to every developer in Foundry, including … · MAI-Transcribe-1, most accurate transcription model in world across 25 languages · MAI-Voice-1, natural, expressive speech generation · MAI-Image-2, our most capable image model yet

@satyanadella ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500开盘蒸发8300亿后当日转涨

美股开盘后受特朗普伊朗战争演讲影响,标普500指数一度抹去约8300亿美元市值,随后在伊朗-阿曼霍尔木兹谈判消息刺激下,全面扭转跌势并转为上涨。

S&P 500 erased -$830 billion at open; reversed to green intraday

市场走势与地缘消息高度联动:开盘抛售源于特朗普演讲缺乏明确的战争出口路径,随后因伊朗-阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡协议谈判的报道而快速反弹。波动结构显示市场正在对战争升级和外交解决两种极端情景进行"双峰定价"。此前交易者曾创纪录地向做空原油ETF(SCO)注入9.77亿美元。

BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases -$830 billion as US markets open for the first time since President Trump's Iran War speech.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉Q1交付358K低于预期环比历史峰值降15%

特斯拉2026年Q1全球交付量为358,023辆,低于华尔街预期约369,000-372,000辆,同比2025年Q1增长约6%,但较2023年Q1历史峰值42.3万辆低15%。

Tesla Q1 deliveries 358,023 vs ~369-372k est; +6% YoY vs Q1 2025; -15% from record Q1 2023 (423k)

业绩低于预期反映特斯拉在电动车市场竞争加剧与核心业务承压的双重困境,能源业务同样表现疲弱,股价随数据公布走低。多家分析机构将其定性为特斯拉近年来最差销售季之一。

Tesla delivered 358k vehicles in Q1, up 6% from a year ago (337k) but down 15% from the record Q1 deliveries back in 2023 (423k). $TSLA

@charliebilello ↗
美股 HIGH

蓝猫头资本遭54亿美元赎回潮并封闭赎回

私人信贷巨头Blue Owl Capital在Q1 2026遭遇创纪录54亿美元赎回申请,旗舰OCIC基金(约360亿美元AUM)收到约21.9%的赎回申请,科技贷款基金赎回申请达到基金净值的40.7%,公司宣布将赎回上限设为5%。

Blue Owl: $5.4B redemption surge Q1 2026; OCIC ($36B AUM) 21.9% redemption rate; tech fund 40.7% of $3B NAV; redemptions capped at 5%

此为1.8万亿美元私人信贷市场主要机构前所未有的赎回规模,触发资管股集体抛售。市场将此视为私人信贷流动性风险的系统性预警信号——封闭赎回意味着此前宣称的流动性溢价正面临现实检验,行业正通过证券化等手段应对赎回压力。

BREAKING: Private credit giant Blue Owl Capital was struck with a "mammoth" $5.4 billion increase in redemption requests in Q1 2026, per FT. Details include: 1. Withdrawal requests at Blue Owl's tech-lending fund have surged to 40.7% per cent of the fund's $3B value 2.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗与阿曼起草霍尔木兹通行协议并拟征收过路费

伊朗与阿曼正起草协议,将对霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行实施"监督和协调",伊朗副外长格里巴巴迪表示将设立通行收费机制,同时声称相关要求"不构成限制";伊朗远征委员会主席则明确表示海峡不会回到此前状态。

Iran-Oman drafting Hormuz transit protocol; Iran to set shipping tolls; Iran says 'not restrictions'; Expediency Council: Hormuz 'won't return to what it was'

多方消息源确认伊朗正将霍尔木兹通行权货币化——既不全面封锁,也不恢复自由通航,实质上是将战略水道转变为收费设施。消息引发油价短暂回落和股市反弹,但伊朗征收过路费的定性令市场警惕这是一种"伪开放"。海湾国家正考虑建设绕过霍尔木兹的替代管道,印度和英国启动多边倡议协调重开海峡。

BREAKING: Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "monitor transit" through the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. Iran says tanker traffic through Hormuz will be "supervised and coordinated" with Iran and Oman 2. Iran says "these requirements will not mean restrictions,"

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

IRGC宣称袭击亚马逊巴林云中心并列出海湾桥梁目标

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣称对位于巴林的亚马逊云计算中心发动攻击,伊朗法尔斯通讯社列出科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿布扎比和约旦多座桥梁为潜在军事目标;此前IRGC还声称对约旦阿兹拉克基地的美国战机实施无人机袭击。

IRGC claims attack on Amazon AWS Bahrain ($AMZN); Iran lists Gulf bridges in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Jordan as targets; drone strike claimed on USAF al-Azraq base Jordan

伊朗将攻击目标从军事基础设施扩展至民用科技和民用基础设施,标志着冲突升级的质变。针对亚马逊云计算中心的攻击声明引发市场对科技行业数据中心安全的广泛担忧,IRGC同时警告升级将"扩大目标清单并加速美国撤出该地区"。

IRGC: We have begun attack on the Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain - Iran's ISNA. $AMZN

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普称伊朗核设施已化为废墟并承诺即时报复

特朗普在全国演讲中宣称伊朗核设施已被摧毁化为"废墟",承诺对任何重启核计划的尝试给予即时报复,同时暗示战争正在"接近尾声",并宣称美国石油天然气产量超过沙特与俄罗斯之和。

Trump: Iran nuclear sites 'reduced to dust'; war 'winding down'; US producing 'more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined'

白宫新闻秘书否认媒体关于特朗普将宣布战争结束的报道,但其关于核设施被摧毁的宣示和对北约盟友的批评仍引发广泛争议。美以同盟内部及国际社会对美国战略目标和出口路径存在明显分歧,WSJ社论认为最佳结果仍是政权更迭或伊朗接受开放霍尔木兹条款。

Iran's Nuclear Sites Reduced to 'Dust' Says President Trump, Promising Instant Retribution For Any Attempt to Restart

@presssec ↗
宏观 HIGH

原油价格飙升至每桶140美元以上

受伊朗战争影响,国际原油基准价格突破每桶140美元,为2008年以来最高水平,WTI单日波动区间高达16美元。

Oil >$140/barrel, highest since 2008; WTI $16 intraday range

伊朗战争引发霍尔木兹海峡封锁担忧,推动油价急剧飙升。能源分析师警告战后油价可能大幅回落至25-30美元区间,部分观点认为持续高价将刺激全球能源基础设施投资。美国能源部官员明确表示目前未讨论释放战略石油储备。

The world's most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

美股开盘蒸发8300亿美元后当日翻红

标普500指数在伊朗战争消息冲击下开盘蒸发逾8300亿美元市值,随后受伊朗-阿曼霍尔木兹协议草案消息刺激全面翻红,当日收复全部跌幅。

S&P 500 erased -$830B at open; fully reversed to green intraday

市场在战争利空与霍尔木兹协议草案利好之间剧烈震荡。部分分析师指出反弹由操纵性标题驱动,因该协议仅针对美军撤离后的"和平时期",并非当前局势的实质改变。原油市场未跟随股市涨势,两市出现明显分歧。

BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases -$830 billion as US markets open for the first time since President Trump's Iran War speech.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

达拉斯联储洛根警告伊朗战争加剧滞胀风险

达拉斯联储主席洛根在公开活动中表示,伊朗战争同时推高通胀风险并拖累劳动力市场,她支持联储在最近一次FOMC会议上维持利率不变。

Fed Logan: Iran war raises risks of both higher inflation AND labor market weakness; supported hold at recent FOMC

洛根的表态清晰勾勒出滞胀困境——战争抬高能源价格引发通胀,同时可能通过需求破坏削弱就业。她指出能源生产商需要更长时间的高价支撑才会扩产,关键问题是战争扰动能否刺激美国国内能源投资。ECB的Villeroy亦暗示欧洲下一步利率行动很可能是上调。

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan says the war in Iran is raising risks of both higher inflation and weakness in the labor market during an event in Dallas

@bloombergtv ↗
宏观 HIGH

惠誉:卡塔尔能源LNG停产,修复或需数年

惠誉评级预计卡塔尔能源LNG生产设施因伊朗战争关闭后,恢复产能所需时间可能长达数年。

QatarEnergy LNG production shut down; Fitch: repairs 'may take up to several years'

卡塔尔是全球最大液化天然气出口国之一,长期停产将对欧洲和亚洲能源供应造成持续冲击,进一步强化高油气价格的结构性支撑逻辑。

Fitch on QatarEnergy: We assume repairs to bring capacity back online after LNG production shut down due to the Iran war may take up to several years.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

谷歌发布Gemma 4开源模型家族

谷歌发布Gemma 4系列开源基础模型,基于Gemini 3同源技术,涵盖2B至更大规模参数,支持视觉和音频输入,英伟达已协同优化以在全系NVIDIA GPU硬件上高效运行。

Gemma 4: 2B, 4B (vision/audio) and larger; built on Gemini 3 tech; NVIDIA optimized across RTX PCs, DGX Spark, Jetson Orin Nano, Blackwell GPUs

谷歌Jeff Dean将Gemma 4定位为同等规模开源模型的新标杆,内置SOTA推理能力并支持边缘部署。英伟达与谷歌的联合优化进一步巩固了NVIDIA在AI推理生态中的枢纽地位,覆盖从PC到数据中心全栈硬件。

Today we're releasing Gemma 4, our new family of open foundation models, built on the same research and technology as our Gemini 3 series. These models set a new standard for open intelligence, offering SOTA reasoning capabilities from edge-scale (2B and 4B w/ vision/audio) up

@jeffdean ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

微软发布三款MAI模型并上线Foundry平台

微软CEO纳德拉宣布将MAI-Transcribe-1、MAI-Voice-1及MAI-Image-2三款模型上线Foundry开发者平台,MAI-Transcribe-1号称全球最准确的25语言转录模型。

MAI-Transcribe-1 (25 languages, 'most accurate in world'), MAI-Voice-1, MAI-Image-2; available in Microsoft Foundry

微软加速构建内部AI模型矩阵,以减少对OpenAI的依赖。结合此前披露的2027年大模型自研计划,微软正系统性建立独立AI能力护城河,MAI家族是该战略的首批落地成果。

We're bringing our growing MAI model family to every developer in Foundry, including … · MAI-Transcribe-1, most accurate transcription model in world across 25 languages · MAI-Voice-1, natural, expressive speech generation · MAI-Image-2, our most capable image model yet

@satyanadella ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

微软计划2027年推出自研前沿大模型

据Bloomberg报道,微软计划最快2027年推出自研大型前沿AI模型,定位为对OpenAI和Anthropic顶级模型的内部替代方案。

Microsoft: in-house large cutting-edge AI models targeting 2027; alternatives to OpenAI and Anthropic

这一战略标志着微软从OpenAI核心合作伙伴向独立AI研发者的身份转型加速。在向OpenAI投入数百亿美元后,微软寻求掌控关键模型层以规避供应商依赖风险,MAI家族的推出印证了这一路径的具体执行。

Microsoft aims to develop large, cutting-edge artificial intelligence models by next year, part of a push to build in-house alternatives to the most powerful AI tools from OpenAI and Anthropic

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

a16z披露:热门npm包遭劫持植入后门

a16z披露一起软件供应链攻击事件:攻击者劫持互联网最流行的npm包之一并植入后门,所有执行npm install的机器均受感染。

npm package hijacked; backdoor installed on every machine running `npm install`; one of internet's most popular packages

a16z将软件供应链定性为现代软件开发中最关键却防御最薄弱的攻击面。此次事件波及范围极广,凸显开源生态系统的系统性安全漏洞,对依赖npm生态的企业构成实质威胁。

The software supply chain has become the most critical and least-defended attack surface in modern software development. This week, someone hijacked one of the most popular packages on the internet and used it to install a backdoor on every machine that ran npm install.

@a16z ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉Q1交付35.8万辆不及预期,股价跌4%

特斯拉2026年Q1全球交付358,023辆,同比增长6%,但较2023年Q1历史峰值下降15%,低于华尔街预期,股价下跌近4%。

Tesla Q1 deliveries: 358,023 (+6% YoY vs 337k; -15% vs 2023 Q1 record 423k); stock -~4%

美国EV购税减免到期被认为是主要压力来源,能源业务表现同样疲弱。Rivian同期表现优于特斯拉,进一步引发市场对特斯拉竞争力的质疑。分析师注意到交付量距离2023年峰值的持续背离。

Tesla delivered 358k vehicles in Q1, up 6% from a year ago (337k) but down 15% from the record Q1 deliveries back in 2023 (423k). $TSLA

@charliebilello ↗
美股 HIGH

蓝猫资本Q1遭遇54亿美元赎回冲击

私人信贷巨头Blue Owl Capital在2026年Q1遭遇54亿美元赎回申请,其科技借贷基金赎回请求占基金净值比例高达40.7%。

Blue Owl Capital: $5.4B redemption requests Q1 2026; tech-lending fund redemptions at 40.7% of $3B NAV

私人信贷行业正面临流动性压力,部分管理人已转向证券化工具应对赎回潮。卡森·布洛克亦做空信贷ETF,押注AI裁员浪潮将触发比2020年更严重的流动性危机。

BREAKING: Private credit giant Blue Owl Capital was struck with a "mammoth" $5.4 billion increase in redemption requests in Q1 2026, per FT. Details include: 1. Withdrawal requests at Blue Owl's tech-lending fund have surged to 40.7% per cent of the fund's $3B value

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500 Q1:Mag 7全线负回报,能源材料领涨

标普500指数2026年Q1表现两极分化:Mag 7科技股年初至今全线负回报,能源、材料、消费必需品和公用事业板块领涨,AI内存存储公司SanDisk成为最大涨幅异数。

Q1 2026 S&P 500: Mag 7 negative YTD; energy, materials, consumer staples, utilities, AI infrastructure top performers; SanDisk outlier

伊朗战争与油价飙升重塑板块轮动格局,传统防御类板块与能源股受益,高估值成长股承压。这一分化在大类资产配置层面提供了明确的新叙事框架,与2025年截然相反。

S&P 500 Q1 2026 Performance: High-growth tech stocks hurt the most. The Mag 7 faced negative YTD returns. The highest percentage YTD returns came from energy, materials, consumer staples, utilities, and AI infrastructure. The outlier is SanDisk, an AI memory storage company

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股 HIGH

Coinbase获OCC有条件批准设立国家信托公司

Coinbase获美国货币监理署(OCC)有条件批准,可设立全国性信托公司牌照,为其拓展托管等传统金融业务开辟路径。

Coinbase: conditional OCC national trust company charter approval

该牌照批准是Coinbase进军传统银行托管和信托业务的关键一步,与国会正在推进的稳定币立法同步,加密行业合规化进程明显加速。

Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, said it has won conditional approval from banking regulators for a national trust company charter, a step that could pave the way for it to expand into new businesses

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗与阿曼起草霍尔木兹通行协议并拟征收通行费

伊朗与阿曼正式起草霍尔木兹海峡通行监管协议,伊朗副外长宣布将对过往船只收取通行费,伊朗方面宣称海峡通行状况"将不会恢复到战前"。

Iran-Oman drafting Hormuz transit protocol; Iran Deputy FM: tolls for ships; transit to be 'supervised and coordinated'; Iran: 'situation in Hormuz won't return to what it was'

多方来源确认协议草案存在,但关键分歧在于其适用时机:伊朗方面电报频道显示该政策针对美军撤离后的"和平时期",并非当前局势的立即改变,部分分析师认为这是被市场过度解读的操纵性标题。无论实质内容如何,伊朗宣示对海峡的主权控制诉求已成既定立场,且原油市场未随相关报道上涨,与股市明显分歧。

BREAKING: Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "monitor transit" through the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. Iran says tanker traffic through Hormuz will be "supervised and coordinated" with Iran and Oman 2. Iran says "these requirements will not mean restrictions,

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列国防军摧毁IRGC德黑兰总部并击毙石油指挥官

以色列国防军宣布摧毁伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)位于德黑兰的中央总部,并定点击毙负责监管伊朗石油销售收益的石油总部指挥官贾姆希德·埃沙吉。

IDF struck IRGC central HQ Tehran (managed worldwide terror budgets); eliminated Jamshid Eshaqi (IRGC Oil HQ commander, overseeing oil revenue financing)

以色列的定点清除行动直接针对IRGC的财政命脉——石油收益系统,旨在切断伊朗向代理武装输送资金的能力。IRGC中央总部被摧毁进一步深化了对伊朗军事指挥体系的打击,覆盖导弹生产等多项预算职能。

🔴ELIMINATED: Jamshid Eshaqi, commander of the Oil Headquarters for the Iranian terror regime's forces. The Oil HQs enable the continuation of IRGC activities and military buildup through profits from oil sales. Eshaqi led the financial arm of the regime's forces and oversaw

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗对约旦美军基地及巴林亚马逊数据中心发动攻击

伊朗宣称对约旦阿兹拉克基地的美国战斗机实施无人机攻击,IRGC同日宣称对位于巴林的亚马逊云计算中心发动打击。

IRGC drone attack on US fighter jets, al Azraq base, Jordan; IRGC claimed strike on Amazon cloud computing center, Bahrain ($AMZN)

伊朗将攻击目标从纯军事延伸至商业科技基础设施,显示其反介入战略已涵盖经济目标。IRGC此前亦列出科威特、沙特、阿布扎比、约旦等地桥梁为潜在目标,局势升级势头明显。

IRGC: We have begun attack on the Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain - Iran's ISNA. $AMZN

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普告知帕姆·邦迪司法部长任期临近尾声

据Semafor和Fox News确认报道,特朗普已通知司法部长帕姆·邦迪其任期"即将结束",邦迪将离开司法部长职位。

AG Pam Bondi departure confirmed by Fox News; Trump-Bondi phone call per Semafor

邦迪的离职是特朗普政府又一次高层人事变动,正值多项重大法律诉讼(含反垄断和移民案件)进行中,司法部领导层换届将带来政策连续性的不确定性。

Attorney General Pam Bondi is leaving her post at the head of the US Justice Department, Fox News reported, citing a phone call with Donald Trump

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

乌克兰无人机摧毁俄罗斯波罗的海港口40%石油储存

卫星图像显示,乌克兰无人机袭击已摧毁俄罗斯波罗的海普里莫尔斯克港至少40%的石油储存设施,另一港口乌斯季-卢加储罐亦遭袭。

Primorsk port: ≥40% oil storage destroyed by Ukrainian drones; Ust-Luga terminal also hit; confirmed by satellite imagery

此次打击直接冲击俄罗斯石油出口能力,在全球原油供应已因伊朗局势趋紧的背景下进一步收紧供给端。俄罗斯为此计划向古巴增派第二艘石油运输船,以维系对盟友的能源承诺。

Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk lost at least 40% of its oil storage to Ukrainian drone attacks, satellite images show

@financialjuice ↗
Crypto HIGH

Coinbase获OCC有条件批准设立全国信托公司

Coinbase获美国货币监理署(OCC)有条件批准,可设立全国性信托公司牌照,为其进入托管、信托等传统金融服务业务开辟监管路径。

Coinbase: conditional OCC national trust company charter; first major crypto exchange to obtain this

此次牌照批准是加密行业监管合规化的重要里程碑,与两党稳定币利率立法同步推进,显示华盛顿在加密监管框架上正积累政策共识。Coinbase AI支付协议x402同日获谷歌、Stripe、AWS背书,多重利好叠加。

BREAKING: COINBASE $COIN RECEIVES CONDITIONAL APPROVAL FROM OCC TO OPERATE NATIONAL TRUST COMPANY

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto HIGH

参议员提出修订版稳定币利率收益方案供行业审议

参议员蒂利斯和奥尔斯布鲁克斯推出修订版稳定币利率收益提案,本周将供加密公司及银行机构审议。

Revised stablecoin yield proposal from Sens. Tillis and Alsobrooks; crypto firms and banks to review this week

稳定币利率收益合法化若通过,将允许稳定币持有者直接获得底层资产收益,重塑稳定币经济模型,并对货币市场基金和银行存款形成竞争压力。

LATEST: 🚨 CRYPTO FIRMS AND BANKS TO REVIEW REVISED STABLECOIN YIELD PROPOSAL FROM SENS TILLIS AND ALSOBROOKS THIS WEEK

@scottmelker ↗
宏观 HIGH

国际油价飙至2008年来最高

国际布伦特原油现货价格突破每桶141美元,为2008年金融危机以来最高点,WTI原油亦涨至112美元上方,日内振幅达16美元。

Dated Brent >$141/barrel highest since 2008; WTI >$112/barrel; $16 intraday range; projected US CPI 3.5%+ if sustained through April

分析人士指出油价与美国CPI通胀存在近乎完美的正相关关系,若当前价格持续至4月,美国CPI可能突破3.5%。能源分析师Doomberg警告战争结束后油价可能骤跌至25-30美元/桶。盘中因伊朗-阿曼霍尔木兹协议草案消息出现短暂回落但未能持续。

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

惠誉:卡塔尔LNG恢复产能或需数年

惠誉评级指出,伊朗战争导致卡塔尔能源公司LNG生产停工,预计修复产能恢复上线最多需要数年时间。

Fitch: QatarEnergy LNG production shut down; repairs may take "up to several years"

卡塔尔是全球最重要的LNG出口国之一,惠誉的评估意味着全球天然气供给缺口将是结构性的而非短期冲击,对欧洲能源安全及全球LNG长期合同重定价具有深远影响。

Fitch on QatarEnergy: We assume repairs to bring capacity back online after LNG production shut down due to the Iran war may take up to several years.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

谷歌发布Gemma 4开源基础模型系列

谷歌发布Gemma 4开源基础模型系列,基于Gemini 3同款技术,覆盖2B至大规模参数并支持视觉与音频,NVIDIA同步优化使其能在RTX PC到Blackwell数据中心GPU全线高效运行。

Gemma 4: 2B/4B multimodal (vision+audio), built on Gemini 3 tech, SOTA reasoning; NVIDIA optimized: RTX PCs, DGX Spark, Jetson Orin Nano, Blackwell GPUs

Jeff Dean称Gemma 4为"开放智能的新标准";NVIDIA与谷歌的深度协作覆盖从边缘设备到数据中心的完整部署链,显著降低开发者采用门槛。Hugging Face同步上线,加速开源生态落地。

Today we're releasing Gemma 4, our new family of open foundation models, built on the same research and technology as our Gemini 3 series. These models set a new standard for open intelligence, offering SOTA reasoning capabilities from edge-scale (2B and 4B w/ vision/audio) up

@jeffdean ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

美立法者提案限制芯片设备对华出口

美国众议院周四披露立法草案,拟对包括荷兰、日本在内的盟国向中国出口芯片制造设备实施严格管控,参议院版本预计数周内发布。

House bill: restrict chipmaking tool exports to China from allies incl. Netherlands, Japan; Senate bill coming "in coming weeks"

此举旨在封堵通过盟友向中国输送先进半导体制造设备的漏洞,将直接影响ASML、东京电子等设备厂商,是对华科技脱钩政策的进一步深化与外溢。

US lawmakers unveiled legislation that seeks to crack down on exports of chipmaking tools to China, especially from allies including the Netherlands and Japan,

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

主流npm包遭劫持植入后门

a16z披露近期一高人气npm包被劫持并植入后门,所有执行npm install的开发者机器均受波及,软件供应链被定性为现代软件开发最脆弱的攻击面。

Popular npm package hijacked; backdoor on all machines running npm install; a16z: supply chain is "most critical and least-defended attack surface"

a16z将此次事件定性为供应链安全重大警示;事件提醒开发者对第三方依赖的完整性验证不可忽视,包名及发布者身份安全验证亟需加强。

The software supply chain has become the most critical and least-defended attack surface in modern software development. This week, someone hijacked one of the most popular packages on the internet and used it to install a backdoor on every machine that ran npm install.

@a16z ↗
美股 HIGH

私人信贷遭巨额赎回财政部召集监管

Blue Owl Capital遭遇54亿美元赎回申请,同日美国财政部召集监管机构就私人信贷风险举行紧急会谈。

Blue Owl Capital: $5.4B redemption requests (FT); US Treasury convenes regulators on private credit risks (FT); Citadel Global Fixed Income Fund -8.2% last month

私人信贷行业在伊朗战争引发的市场动荡中深度承压,多家机构已转向证券化手段应对赎回潮;巴菲特表示正关注私募股权可能引发的银行业传染风险,但美联储主席鲍威尔尚未看到系统性威胁。Carson Block同时做空信贷ETF,押注AI失业冲击将引发流动性危机。

Private Credit firm Blue Owl Capital has been hit by $5.4 billion of redemption requests, per FT

@unusual_whales ↗
美股 HIGH

标普500一季度:Mag7全线负收益能源领涨

标普500指数2026年一季度显示Mag 7科技股全部录得负回报,能源、材料、公用事业及AI基础设施板块领涨,指数年初至今下跌约4%。

S&P 500 Q1 2026: Mag 7 all negative YTD; energy, materials, utilities, AI infrastructure outperformed; S&P 500 YTD -4%

伊朗战争推高能源价格导致一季度板块轮动显著,传统价值股和能源板块受益,科技高估值股承压。SanDisk因AI内存存储需求成为科技股中异常强势标的。

S&P 500 Q1 2026 Performance. High-growth tech stocks hurt the most. The Mag 7 faced negative YTD returns. The highest percentage YTD returns came from energy, materials, consumer staples, utilities, and AI infrastructure. The outlier is SanDisk, an AI memory storage company

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉一季度交付不及预期股价跌4%

特斯拉2026年一季度交付量未达华尔街预期,主要受美国电动车税收抵免到期拖累,消息公布后股价下跌近4%,里维安同期表现优于特斯拉。

Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries: missed Wall Street estimates; US EV tax credit expiry; shares -~4%; Rivian outperformed Tesla in Q1

税收抵免政策到期与高油价背景下消费者对燃油车偏好回归,共同构成特斯拉需求疲软的双重压力;里维安的相对强势凸显政策变化对不同车企的差异化影响。

Tesla missed Wall Street expectations for its first-quarter deliveries, as the expiry of a US tax credit on the purchase of electric vehicles weighed on demand, sending its shares down nearly 4%.

@reutersbiz ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗与阿曼起草霍尔木兹通行监管协议

伊朗与阿曼正联合起草协议,拟对霍尔木兹海峡过往船只实施"监督与协调",伊朗副外长同时宣布将对过往船只征收通行费,并表示海峡现状"不会回到从前"。

Iran-Oman draft protocol: tanker traffic "supervised and coordinated"; Iran Deputy FM: tolls to be set; Iran: Hormuz "won't return to what it was"; S&P 500 briefly turned green on headline

市场短暂将此解读为降温信号推动标普500翻绿,但多位分析人士迅速指出该协议仅针对"和平时期"设计,并非当前战时状态的立即改变。欧盟外长卡拉斯强调伊朗无权对过往船只收取"赎金";印度宣布加入英国主导的重开霍尔木兹倡议;海湾国家同步评估绕过霍尔木兹的新管道方案。

BREAKING: Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to 'monitor transit' through the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. Iran says tanker traffic through Hormuz will be 'supervised and coordinated' with Iran and Oman 2. Iran says 'these requirements will not mean restrictions,

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列击毙IRGC石油司令部指挥官并打击德黑兰总部

以色列国防军宣布击毙伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队石油司令部指挥官贾姆希德·埃沙吉,并同日打击位于德黑兰的IRGC中央总部,称后者负责为全球恐怖活动及数千枚弹道导弹提供预算资金。

IDF eliminates Jamshid Eshaqi, IRGC Oil HQ commander; strikes IRGC central HQ in Tehran; Oil HQ funds missile production from oil sale profits

以色列将此次行动定性为针对伊朗军事资金来源的精确打击,石油司令部是IRGC通过石油销售利润维持武装力量运转的核心机构。打击德黑兰总部标志着以色列在伊朗本土的行动纵深进一步扩大。

🔴ELIMINATED: Jamshid Eshaqi, commander of the Oil Headquarters for the Iranian terror regime's forces. The Oil HQs enable the continuation of IRGC activities and military buildup through profits from oil sales. Eshaqi led the financial arm of the regime's forces and oversaw

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗宣称袭击约旦美军基地及巴林亚马逊云中心

伊朗官方媒体宣称对约旦阿兹拉克基地美军战斗机实施无人机攻击,伊斯兰革命卫队另声称已对亚马逊在巴林的云计算中心发起袭击。

Iran: drone attack on US fighters at al Azraq base Jordan; IRGC: attack begun on Amazon cloud center Bahrain ($AMZN) — per Iran's ISNA/Mehr

上述声明来自伊朗官方媒体,独立核实有限。若亚马逊云中心遭袭属实,将是此次冲突中西方商业数字基础设施首次成为直接攻击目标,标志着冲突向科技与商业领域的重大升级。

IRGC: We have begun attack on the Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain - Iran's ISNA. $AMZN

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣称伊朗最大桥梁被摧毁并警告更多打击

特朗普在Truth Social发文称"伊朗最大的桥梁已轰然倒塌,永不再用",并声称将有更多打击行动,白宫新闻秘书称此为特朗普迄今最有力的攻击德黑兰政权表态。

Trump Truth Social: "Biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — much more to follow"; White House: "best case so far for attacking the regime in Tehran"

白宫将此定性为特朗普对伊打击最强硬表态;多名分析人士指出此举越来越偏离国际规范与现代战争准则,特朗普同时警告伊朗"趁早谈判"。值得注意的是,特朗普此前关于伊朗谈判进展的表述在这次讲话中明显缺席。

Trump: Biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again - much more to follow! - Truth Social

@financialjuice ↗
Crypto HIGH

Coinbase获OCC条件批准设立国家信托公司

Coinbase获得美国货币监理署条件性批准,可设立全国性信托公司,成为加密货币交易所进入美国传统银行监管体系的重要里程碑。

Coinbase: conditional OCC approval to operate national trust company charter

此次批准被视为加密行业合规化的标志性进展,将使Coinbase能够拓展托管、借贷等传统金融服务,进一步巩固其作为美国最大合规加密机构的地位,并可能为其他加密企业申请银行牌照提供路径参考。

BREAKING: COINBASE $COIN RECEIVES CONDITIONAL APPROVAL FROM OCC TO OPERATE NATIONAL TRUST COMPANY

@scottmelker ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特原油飙升至141美元创2008年来新高

日期布伦特原油(Dated Brent)价格突破141美元/桶,创2008年金融危机以来最高水平,伊朗战争爆发四周内油价累计上涨约50%。

Dated Brent: $141/bbl, highest since 2008; WTI >$112/bbl; crude +~50% in 4 weeks; CME WTI options saw $16 intraday range

伊朗战争导致波斯湾供应中断是本轮油价暴涨核心驱动,Kobeissi分析若当前油价持续至4月,美国CPI或升破3.5%;美联储达拉斯主席Logan明确指出伊朗战争同时推高通胀与压制就业,滞胀风险急剧上升。

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April.

@kobeissiletter ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

谷歌发布Gemma 4开源模型系列

谷歌DeepMind发布Gemma 4开源基础模型,提供2B、4B(含视觉/音频)、26B MoE和31B稠密四个规格,基于Gemini 3同款研究技术构建;英伟达同步宣布与谷歌合作优化Gemma 4在全线GPU上的运行效率。

Gemma 4: 4 sizes (2B, 4B vision+audio, 26B MoE, 31B dense); built on Gemini 3 tech; Nvidia-optimized for RTX PCs, DGX Spark, Jetson Orin Nano, Blackwell GPUs

谷歌定位Gemma 4为同尺寸最强开源模型,覆盖边缘设备到数据中心全场景;英伟达与谷歌的协同优化构建软硬件闭环生态,对Meta Llama系列形成直接竞争;该模型已上线HuggingFace,开发者可即时微调部署。

Today we're releasing Gemma 4, our new family of open foundation models, built on the same research and technology as our Gemini 3 series. These models set a new standard for open intelligence, offering SOTA reasoning capabilities from edge-scale (2B and 4B w/ vision/audio) up

@jeffdean ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

ChatGPT语音模式正式登陆Apple CarPlay

OpenAI宣布ChatGPT语音模式接入Apple CarPlay,向运行iOS 26.4及以上版本且支持CarPlay的iPhone用户推出。

ChatGPT voice mode: available in CarPlay; requires iOS 26.4+; rolling out to supported iPhone users

OpenAI将AI助手延伸至车载场景,iOS 26.4配套版本要求印证苹果与OpenAI深度整合持续落地;车载AI语音交互入口争夺正式升温,对传统车载Siri和第三方语音系统构成直接竞争。

ChatGPT is now available in CarPlay. The voice mode you know, now available on-the-go. Rolling out to iPhone users running iOS 26.4+ where CarPlay is supported.

@openai ↗
美股 HIGH

特斯拉Q1交付量不及预期股价跌近4%

特斯拉2026年第一季度交付量低于华尔街预期,美国电动车购买税收抵免到期被指为主因,股价当日下跌近4%;Rivian同期交付表现优于特斯拉。

Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries: missed Wall Street estimates; US EV tax credit expired; shares -~4%; Rivian outperformed Tesla

税收优惠退出与宏观消费不确定性双重压制特斯拉销量,伊朗战争引发的高油价未能有效提振电动车需求;Rivian相对胜出加剧市场对特斯拉竞争地位的质疑。

Tesla missed Wall Street expectations for its first-quarter deliveries, as the expiry of a US tax credit on the purchase of electric vehicles weighed on demand, sending its shares down nearly 4%.

@reutersbiz ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX与沙特PIF洽谈50亿美元IPO锚定投资

SpaceX与沙特阿拉伯主权财富基金PIF就IPO锚定投资进行谈判,PIF考虑提供50亿美元,SpaceX此次IPO目标募资750亿美元,将超越沙特阿美和阿里巴巴成为史上最大IPO。

SpaceX IPO target: $75B raise (record); Saudi PIF anchor stake: $5B; PIF current stake ~1%; IPO timing: 2026

750亿美元目标创历史纪录,50亿美元锚定投资旨在防止沙特约1%现有股权被稀释;中东主权资本深度参与西方科技旗舰IPO的格局持续强化,亦为SpaceX估值提供背书信号。

SpaceX has held talks with Saudi Arabia's PIF for a possible $5B anchor investment in its IPO - Reuters. The investment would partly prevent dilution of PIF's existing ~1% stake. SpaceX aims to raise a record-breaking $75B, dwarfing Saudi Aramco and Alibaba's

@stockmktnewz ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列24小时内对伊朗弹道导弹阵列发动50余次打击

以色列国防军24小时内对伊朗弹道导弹阵列50余个目标实施打击,以色列空军在德黑兰中部和西部完成20余次空袭,动用140余枚弹药摧毁数十个发射阵地及导弹储存设施。

IDF 24hr: 50+ targets; 20+ strikes in central/western Tehran; 140+ munitions; dozens of launch sites + missile storage destroyed

以军将此定性为对伊朗弹道导弹能力的系统性摧毁行动,同步实施斩首——消灭克尔曼沙赫地区导弹部队指挥官及IRGC石油总部财务指挥官;胡塞武装随后向以色列发射导弹,伊朗代理人网络持续激活;特朗普声称摧毁伊朗最大桥梁并警告"后续还有更多"。

⭕️24HR RECAP: The IDF struck more than 50 targets of the ballistic missile array in Iran. The IAF completed 20+ strikes in central and western Tehran, striking dozens of launch sites and ballistic missile storage sites with 140+ munitions.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗与阿曼起草霍尔木兹海峡监管协议草案

伊朗与阿曼正在起草协议,要求通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮交通须经两国"监督和协调",伊朗声称此举"不意味着限制",但多方分析指该文件明确针对"和平时期",实为战后控制权的法律铺垫。

Iran-Oman: drafting protocol for 'supervised and coordinated' tanker transit through Strait of Hormuz; Russia says Hormuz 'open for Russia'; tankers hugging Oman coastline to avoid Iranian waters

市场最初将此草案误读为缓和信号推动股市短暂反弹,但分析人士迅速指出该协议专门针对战后场景,实质是伊朗对海峡永久控制权的合法化主张,与美西方航行自由立场根本对立;俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫同日与伊朗外长通话讨论海峡局势,地缘博弈多极化显现。

BREAKING: Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to 'monitor transit' through the Strait of Hormuz. Details include: 1. Iran says tanker traffic through Hormuz will be 'supervised and coordinated' with Iran and Oman 2. Iran says 'these requirements will not mean restrictions,'

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

逾40国盟友召开会议商讨重开霍尔木兹海峡

逾40个美国盟友于4月2日召开会议讨论重开霍尔木兹海峡计划,欧盟外长卡拉斯呼吁扩大Aspides海军任务规模,乌克兰提出可协助保障海峡安全,欧盟官员明确表示不能允许伊朗向过往船只征收"过路费"。

40+ US allies met April 2 on Hormuz reopening; EU: scale up Aspides mission; Fitch: QatarEnergy LNG repairs may take 'several years'

国际社会对霍尔木兹危机的集体响应升温,大规模多边磋商向特朗普发出盟友深度关切的政治信号;Fitch对QatarEnergy的评估揭示战争已造成不可短期修复的能源基础设施损伤,供应缺口可能持续数年。

More than 40 US allies met Thursday to discuss plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in a signal to President Donald Trump of the deep concern across the international community about the crisis in the waterway

@business ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列消灭IRGC石油总部及克尔曼沙赫导弹指挥官

以色列国防军宣布消灭IRGC石油总部指挥官贾姆希德·伊沙吉(Jamshid Eshaqi)——其负责通过石油销售收益为IRGC全球军事活动融资——及克尔曼沙赫地区弹道导弹部队指挥官,另打击德黑兰IRGC中央预算总部。

IDF eliminated: Jamshid Eshaqi (IRGC Oil HQ commander, financial arm) + Kermanshah Ballistic Missile Unit commander + IRGC central Tehran budget HQ struck

以军将石油收益→IRGC资金链→弹道导弹生产的逻辑链条作为此次斩首行动的核心依据,同时打击作战与财务两条线路,旨在从源头削弱伊朗的军事扩张能力。

🔴ELIMINATED: Jamshid Eshaqi, commander of the Oil Headquarters for the Iranian terror regime's forces. The Oil HQs enable the continuation of IRGC activities and military buildup through profits from oil sales. Eshaqi led the financial arm of the regime's forces and oversaw

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普解雇司法部长帕姆·邦迪

美国总统特朗普解雇司法部长帕姆·邦迪,副司法部长托德·布兰奇出任代理司法部长;据报道EPA局长李·泽尔丁被考虑为继任候选人;邦迪据报因爱泼斯坦文件处理方式令特朗普不满而被免。

AG Pam Bondi: fired; Todd Blanche: acting AG; EPA director Lee Zeldin reportedly considered as replacement; reported reason: Epstein files handling

邦迪出局结束其动荡任期,DOJ权力再度洗牌;市场关注新代理司法部长布兰奇对关键案件的处理取向,部分观察者将此次人事变动与爱泼斯坦文件尚未公开一事相关联。

President Donald Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday. Bondi's dismissal comes after reports that Trump was increasingly unhappy about her handling of Department of Justice files related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the DOJ's failure to

@cnbc ↗
Crypto HIGH

Coinbase获OCC有条件批准设立国家信托公司

美国最大加密货币交易所Coinbase获得货币监理署(OCC)有条件批准,可设立全国性信托公司,为其进入银行类业务铺路。

Coinbase: OCC conditional approval for national trust company charter

这是加密交易所获得顶级银行监管资质的里程碑事件,分析师讨论Coinbase能否凭此身份在《CLARITY法案》谈判中充当加密与银行双边中间人;IMF同日发文称"代币化正在重塑受监管金融",两者共同指向加密金融体系主流化加速。

Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, said it has won conditional approval from banking regulators for a national trust company charter, a step that could pave the way for it to expand into new businesses

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特原油飙升至141美元,2008年来最高

2026年4月2日,Dated Brent原油价格突破141美元/桶,创2008年金融危机以来最高水平,WTI原油亦升破112美元/桶,四周内累涨超50%。

Dated Brent $141/bbl (highest since 2008); WTI >$112/bbl; crude futures +50% in 4 weeks

油价飙升直接由伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡引发,分析师将其视为全球大宗商品市场的重大冲击。KoBeissi Letter指出,WTI原油与美国CPI之间存在近乎完美的相关性,若当前油价持续至4月底,美国CPI通胀或突破3.5%,滞胀风险显著上升。

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

沙特扬布港出运量两周翻倍至500万桶/日

沙特阿拉伯正以创纪录速度将原油出运从被封锁的霍尔木兹海峡改道,红海沿岸扬布港出运量在两周内翻倍至约500万桶/日,全长746英里的东西输油管道被全力启用。

Yanbu port crude shipments ~5M bpd, doubled in 2 weeks; 746-mile East-West pipeline at full capacity

沙特迅速激活替代管道和港口意味着部分海湾原油供应链正在重组,但替代产能能否覆盖霍尔木兹封锁造成的缺口仍存疑。这一动作短期可能限制油价进一步飙升,但也揭示地区能源基础设施正承受前所未有的压力。

Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil supply away from the blocked Strait of Hormuz at a record pace: Crude oil shipments from Yanbu, a port on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, are up to ~5 million barrels per day, DOUBLING in just 2 weeks. This comes as the 746-mile East-West pipeline is

@kobeissiletter ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

谷歌发布Gemma 4开源模型系列

谷歌DeepMind发布Gemma 4系列开源基础模型,共4个版本:支持视觉/音频的边缘设备版2B和4B、低延迟版26B MoE,以及高性能版31B Dense,均基于Gemini 3同款研究技术构建。

Gemma 4: 2B, 4B (vision/audio edge), 26B MoE (low latency), 31B dense (SOTA reasoning); built on Gemini 3 technology

Gemma 4被谷歌定位为各自规模内最强的开源模型,覆盖从边缘设备到服务器端的完整模型族,是谷歌在开源AI领域与Meta Llama系列竞争的重要举措。a16z联合创始人Sriram Krishnan称其为"西方在开源AI领域保持领先的关键添加",认为Gemma 4将激发全球开发者的创造力。

Today we're releasing Gemma 4, our new family of open foundation models, built on the same research and technology as our Gemini 3 series. These models set a new standard for open intelligence, offering SOTA reasoning capabilities from edge-scale (2B and 4B w/ vision/audio) up

@jeffdean ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

OpenAI收购科技直播节目TBPN

OpenAI宣布收购在线科技访谈节目TBPN,该节目将保持每周工作日太平洋时间上午11点直播不变,OpenAI此举被彭博定性为推动AI话语权建设的罕见媒体并购。

OpenAI acquires TBPN; show continues weekday 11am PT; Bloomberg: 'unusual purchase aimed at driving the conversation around AI'

多方解读OpenAI此举为争夺AI叙事主导权的战略布局,而非纯粹内容业务;主持人John Coogan与Sam Altman有超过十年合作渊源。评论者指出播客业正向唱片公司模式转型,头部内容创作者议价权大幅提升,OpenAI通过收购可获得内容训练数据与品牌影响力的双重收益。

OpenAI has acquired the online technology talk show TBPN, an unusual purchase for the artificial intelligence model developer aimed at driving the conversation around AI

@business ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX IPO目标估值升至逾2万亿美元

SpaceX将IPO目标估值提升至2万亿美元以上,同时与沙特主权基金PIF就50亿美元基石投资进行谈判,计划融资规模约750亿美元,将创下历史最大IPO记录,超越沙特阿美和阿里巴巴。

SpaceX IPO target >$2T (Bloomberg); Saudi PIF anchor $5B; total raise ~$75B (record); PIF currently holds ~1% stake

若估值成立,SpaceX将超越S&P 500中除五家公司以外的所有企业,沙特PIF的潜在锚定投资显示中东主权资本正押注美国科技IPO。彭博$2T目标与路透社$75B融资计划相互印证,此IPO规模将历史性地超越所有前例。

BREAKING: SpaceX has boosted its target IPO valuation to above $2 trillion, per Bloomberg. This would make SpaceX bigger than all but 5 companies in the S&P 500.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

特朗普政府拟对进口药品征收最高100%关税

特朗普政府宣布准备对部分进口品牌药品征收最高100%关税,《华尔街日报》和CNBC同步证实该政策方向。

Up to 100% pharmaceutical tariffs on some branded imported drugs

制药关税若落地将对依赖海外活性药物成分供应链的美国医药行业造成重大冲击,主要涉及来自亚洲和欧洲的进口药品。此举可能推高美国药价,叠加能源冲击进一步加剧通胀压力,并加速制药供应链的在岸化重组。

Trump administration prepares up to 100% pharmaceutical tariffs on some imported drugs, per CNBC

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列空军24小时内对伊朗实施50余次打击

以色列国防军在24小时内对伊朗弹道导弹阵地实施50余次打击,空军完成20余批次覆盖德黑兰中西部地区的空袭,投掷140余枚弹药,摧毁多处发射阵地和弹道导弹储存设施,并击毙伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队克尔曼沙赫地区弹道导弹部队指挥官。

IDF: 50+ targets; 20+ IAF airstrikes in central/western Tehran; 140+ munitions; Kermanshah ballistic missile commander eliminated

以色列声称大规模打击已严重削弱伊朗弹道导弹能力,但伊朗随后继续向以色列和海湾国家发射导弹,证明其打击能力尚未被消除。特朗普在黄金时段演讲中宣称对伊朗的军事威胁"已接近消除",但PBS记者指出他的演讲中明显省略了"谈判正在进行"这一此前常见措辞。

⭕️24HR RECAP: The IDF struck more than 50 targets of the ballistic missile array in Iran. The IAF completed 20+ strikes in central and western Tehran, striking dozens of launch sites and ballistic missile storage sites with 140+ munitions.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡对美以长期关闭

伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡将对美国和以色列长期关闭;IRGC声称对迪拜甲骨文数据中心实施打击;伊朗与胡塞武装继续向以色列及海湾国家发射新一轮导弹;船只已开始绕行阿曼海岸规避伊朗水域。

Strait of Hormuz closed long-term to US/Israel; IRGC claims Oracle Dubai data center strike; Houthi missile toward Israel; tankers hugging Oman coastline

伊朗将封锁定性为"长期"举措,使市场最担忧的情景正在成真,路透社报道船只已开始改变航线。40余个美国盟友紧急召开会议讨论如何重新开放海峡,欧盟外长卡拉斯表示伊朗不得向过往船只收取"通行费"。若IRGC打击甲骨文数据中心属实,将标志着冲突对数字关键基础设施的重大升级。

BREAKING: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed long-term for both the US and Israel. US oil prices have officially marked their highest close since June 2022.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

庞贝娜被解除司法部长职务,布兰奇出任代理部长

特朗普总统解除庞贝娜(Pam Bondi)司法部长职务,由副司法部长托德·布兰奇(Todd Blanche)出任代理司法部长,据报道原因包括庞贝娜对爱泼斯坦文件处理不力及司法部执法方向争议。

Pam Bondi fired as AG; Todd Blanche interim AG; Epstein files handling cited; EPA's Lee Zeldin considered as replacement

庞贝娜被解职结束了其动荡的任期,Polymarket此前已有93%概率预测此事将发生。CNBC报道特朗普对庞贝娜处理爱泼斯坦相关文件及司法部执法方向日益不满;EPA局长李·泽尔丁被列为继任候选人之一。Polymarket同时显示国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德被撤换的概率已升至67%,显示特朗普政府人事动荡仍将持续。

President Donald Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday. Bondi's dismissal comes after reports that Trump was increasingly unhappy about her handling of Department of Justice files related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the DOJ's failure to

@cnbc ↗
Crypto HIGH

灰度BitTensor信托溢价50%,现货TAO ETF竞相申请

灰度Bittensor信托以净资产价值50%溢价交易;70%的TAO代币处于质押状态;过去7天净质押流入量达250万TAO;日排放量已从7200减半至3600;灰度和Bitwise均已提交现货TAO ETF申请。

Grayscale Bittensor Trust 50% premium to NAV; 70% TAO staked; +2.5M TAO net staking inflows in 7 days; emissions halved 7,200→3,600/day; Grayscale & Bitwise spot TAO ETF filings

多重供给收缩信号同时出现:大规模质押锁定了流通供给,排放减半压缩新增抛压,而ETF申请则预示机构资金流入。50%的信托溢价显示市场对TAO的需求已大幅超过现货流动性,若现货ETF获批,溢价可能迅速收窄,但将提供更有效的价格发现机制。

grayscale's bittensor trust is trading at a 50% premium to NAV. 70% of TAO supply is staked. net staking inflows of +2.5m TAO in the last 7 days alone. daily emissions already halved from 7,200 to 3,600. both grayscale and bitwise filed for spot TAO ETFs. the liquid float on this

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

原油价格飙升至2008年以来最高

现货布伦特原油突破141美元/桶,为2008年金融危机以来最高;WTI原油期货结算于111.54美元/桶,单日绝对涨幅11.41美元为2020年以来最大;布伦特期货结算109.03美元/桶,涨幅7.78%。

Dated Brent $141/bbl (highest since 2008); WTI settle $111.54/bbl (+$11.42, +11.41%); Brent futures $109.03/bbl (+7.78%)

伊朗宣布长期关闭霍尔木兹海峡叠加特朗普无意停火的黄金时段讲话,推动油价进入2008年以来最高区间;分析人士指出超过6亿桶供应存在风险。美联储威廉斯则指出市场对油价最终回落仍保有一定乐观预期,但承认通胀传导只是时间问题。

BREAKING: Dated Brent crude oil prices have surged to $141/barrel, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

沙特Yanbu港原油出运量两周翻倍

沙特阿拉伯通过红海沿岸Yanbu港绕行霍尔木兹海峡重路由原油出运,日均出运量升至约500万桶,两周内翻倍,746英里东西输油管道同步全力运营。

Yanbu crude shipments ~5M bbl/day, doubled in 2 weeks; 746-mile East-West pipeline at capacity

沙特正以创纪录速度将出口流量切换至替代路线,表明关键供应方在霍尔木兹封锁下积极应对;但替代通道能否完全填补缺口仍不明朗,市场观察人士指出航运路线正在绕道伊朗近海岛屿或紧贴阿曼海岸线行驶。

Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil supply away from the blocked Strait of Hormuz at a record pace: Crude oil shipments from Yanbu, a port on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, are up to ~5 million barrels per day, DOUBLING in just 2 weeks. This comes as the 746-mile East-West pipeline is

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观 HIGH

美国对进口药品征收最高100%关税

特朗普政府宣布对专利药品进口征收100%关税,大型药企有120天时间宣布制造转移承诺以规避;欧洲、日本、韩国、瑞士因贸易协议享受15%优惠税率,若企业将生产迁美可降至20%。

100% tariff on patented drug imports; 120-day window to comply; 15% for EU/Japan/S.Korea/Switzerland; 20% if manufacturing moved to US

这是迄今对制药行业最强硬的贸易政策干预,意图强制供应链回流本土;若落实将大幅推高药品价格并加剧通胀压力,但分层豁免机制显示谈判空间仍存,实际执行细节尚不明朗。

Senior Administration Official: The US is imposing 100% tariff on patented drug imports unless the manufacturer has signed a drug pricing deal or agrees to make the product in the US.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

OpenAI收购科技直播节目TBPN

OpenAI宣布收购每日科技直播节目TBPN,节目将保持原有形式在太平洋时间上午11点继续直播,Sam Altman表示支持节目以现有方式独立运营。

OpenAI acquires TBPN; show continues daily at 11am PT; Altman previously funded host John Coogan's first company in 2013

此举被多位观察人士解读为OpenAI将媒体影响力纳入AI叙事战略版图的信号;levie调侃其目的是获取高质量CEO访谈内容作为训练数据;pmarca生态的声音将其定性为'技术乐观主义即服务'。Altman则表示不期望节目对OpenAI手下留情。

Everyone's missing the point. OpenAI can now harvest TBPN guest content for training data to automate CEOs out of jobs. It's over.

@levie ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

谷歌DeepMind发布Gemma 4开源模型系列

DeepMind发布Gemma 4开源模型系列,提供四种规格:310亿参数密集型(高性能)、260亿参数MoE(低延迟)、40亿及20亿参数(边缘设备),定位为各规模中性能最强的开源模型。

Gemma 4: 31B dense, 26B MoE (low latency), 4B & 2B (edge); 'best open models in the world for their respective sizes' — Demis Hassabis

Gemma 4覆盖从边缘计算到服务端的完整部署场景,被视为西方在开源AI领域对抗中国模型的关键布局;sriramk将其置于地缘政治技术竞争框架下,强调开源模型是西方维持AI优势的重要战线。

Really excited for this launch of Gemma 4 from @demishassabis and the DeepMind team. Open source models are a key front for the west to have a lead on and this is a very key addition to the effort. Excited to see what developers in SV and around the world can build using this.

@sriramk ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX目标IPO估值突破2万亿美元

SpaceX将目标IPO估值上调至逾2万亿美元,并与沙特主权财富基金PIF就50亿美元锚定投资展开谈判,本次IPO拟募资750亿美元,将打破沙特阿美与阿里巴巴的历史融资记录。

SpaceX target IPO valuation >$2T; Saudi PIF anchor stake $5B; IPO raise target $75B (record); PIF current stake ~1%

若估值成立,SpaceX将超越标普500中除前五家以外的所有成份股;沙特PIF参与既保护其现有约1%股权不被稀释,亦是中东国家在太空经济赛道的战略押注。750亿美元的募资目标使其有望成为史上规模最大的IPO。

BREAKING: SpaceX has boosted its target IPO valuation to above $2 trillion, per Bloomberg. This would make SpaceX bigger than all but 5 companies in the S&P 500.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

伊朗IRGC声称袭击迪拜甲骨文数据中心

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣称对迪拜的甲骨文数据中心发动袭击,伊朗国家媒体证实这一声明。

IRGC claims strike on Oracle data center in Dubai; $ORCL; reported via IRGC state media

此举将伊以冲突延伸至关键科技基础设施领域,标志着军事攻击正向云计算节点蔓延;若袭击属实,将对甲骨文云业务产生直接运营影响,并引发市场对科技公司中东数据中心地缘风险敞口的重新定价。

Iran launches a strike on Oracle's data center in Dubai, says IRGC.

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗宣布长期封锁霍尔木兹海峡

伊朗军方发言人谢卡奇宣布霍尔木兹海峡将对美国和以色列长期关闭;特朗普同日发表黄金时段电视讲话宣称军事胜利并称伊朗应尽快谈判,逾6亿桶供应面临风险。

Iranian Military Spokesperson Shekarchi: Strait of Hormuz 'closed long-term' to US and Israel; Trump primetime address claims military victories; >600M barrels at risk per CNBC; US carrier Ford prepares to rejoin operations

伊朗的封锁声明是本轮冲突中最具市场冲击性的地缘表态,直接触发油价飙升;尽管特朗普宣称接近胜利,但伊朗持续发射导弹和正式封锁声明表明冲突远未结束,逾40个美国盟友随即召开会议讨论如何重开海峡。

Iranian Military Spokesperson Shekarchi: The Strait of Hormuz will be closed long-term to the US and Israel.

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

胡塞武装联合伊朗及真主党对以色列发动联合行动

胡塞武装宣布联合伊朗和真主党对以色列雅法地区重要目标发动联合作战,并声称对特拉维夫重要目标实施弹道导弹齐射。

Houthi Group: joint operation with Iran and Hezbollah targeting Yafa area; ballistic missile barrage on Tel Aviv 'vital targets'

胡塞、伊朗、真主党三方联合作战声明显示反以轴心协调程度进一步升级,标志着冲突已从双边演变为多方代理战争框架;实际打击效果尚待独立核实,但三方联名声明本身即具有重大升级信号意义。

Houthi Group: We carried out a joint operation with Iran and Hezbollah against vital enemy targets in the Yafa area.

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

以色列击毙伊朗克尔曼沙赫弹道导弹部队指挥官

以色列国防军宣布消灭伊朗克尔曼沙赫地区弹道导弹部队指挥官Atimi,该人曾负责指挥对以色列发射数十枚弹道导弹。

IDF eliminates Atimi, Commander of Iranian Ballistic Missile Unit in Kermanshah; 'dozens of ballistic missile launches toward Israel'

以军精准定点清除伊朗西部核心导弹指挥官,表明以方在伊朗本土深度推进斩首行动;此举将打击伊朗弹道导弹作战指挥能力,但也可能激发新一轮报复性升级。

🔴ELIMINATED: The Commander of the Iranian terror regime's Ballistic Missile Unit in the Kermanshah area. Atimi was responsible for the unit's operations in the Kermanshah region in western Iran and carried out dozens of ballistic missile launches toward Israel.

@idf ↗
地缘 HIGH

逾40个美国盟友召开会议讨论重开霍尔木兹海峡

逾40个美国盟友于周四召开会议讨论重新开放霍尔木兹海峡方案,欧盟外长卡拉斯呼吁扩大欧盟阿斯彼迪斯海军任务规模并警告不允许伊朗向过往船只征收通行费。

>40 US allies met Thursday on Strait of Hormuz; EU Foreign Minister Kallas: EU Aspides naval mission must scale up; 'Iran cannot be allowed to charge countries a bounty to let ships pass'

盟友会议规模庞大,是国际社会对霍尔木兹封锁最集中的外交响应;欧盟外长措辞强硬,将伊朗行为定性为不可接受的主权勒索,但多边军事行动的协调难度和政治意愿仍存在分歧。

More than 40 US allies met Thursday to discuss plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in a signal to President Donald Trump of the deep concern across the international community about the crisis in the waterway

@business ↗
Crypto HIGH

CME加密交易量3月日均升至79.8亿美元

CME集团报告2026年3月加密货币交易量同比增长19%,日均交易量达79.8亿美元。

CME Group crypto trading volume +19% YoY; $7.98B daily average in March 2026

CME数据反映机构参与度持续扩大,在传统金融市场因地缘冲突动荡的背景下,加密衍生品市场仍保持强劲成交,显示机构对冲和配置需求未因宏观风险上升而萎缩,为加密市场机构化叙事提供了新数据支撑。

Another milestone for crypto adoption. What do you think is driving the 19% growth in trading volume? Explore our Crypto offerings ⬇️

@cmegroup ↗
Crypto HIGH

灰度Bittensor信托溢价50%,TAO现货ETF获双机构申请

灰度Bittensor信托当前较净资产值溢价50%,70%的TAO供应量已被质押,过去7天净质押流入250万TAO,每日排放量已从7200枚减半至3600枚;灰度和Bitwise均已提交现货TAO ETF申请。

Grayscale Bittensor Trust 50% premium to NAV; 70% TAO supply staked; +2.5M TAO net staking inflow in 7 days; daily emissions halved 7,200→3,600; Grayscale + Bitwise both filed spot TAO ETFs

TAO呈现多重供应收紧信号(减半排放+极高质押率+双机构ETF申请),流通浮筹极为有限;50%的NAV溢价既反映机构争相建仓的紧迫性,也意味着巨大的追高风险。两家主要机构同步申请ETF是本轮炒作的核心催化剂。

grayscale's bittensor trust is trading at a 50% premium to NAV. 70% of TAO supply is staked. net staking inflows of +2.5m TAO in the last 7 days alone. daily emissions already halved from 7,200 to 3,600. both grayscale and bitwise filed for spot TAO ETFs. the liquid float on this

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto HIGH

Jupiter JLP金库1.5亿美元在12分钟内被清空

19家金库运营商将资金集中通过Drift作为执行层,导致1.5亿美元JLP存款在12分钟内被清空,占Jupiter永续合约全部流动性池的15-20%,Jupiter perps成交量随后周环比下降40%。

$150M JLP deposits liquidated in 12 minutes; 15-20% of Jupiter's entire perp liquidity pool; Jupiter perps volume -40% WoW; 19 vault operators all routed through single Drift execution layer

此事件揭示了DeFi收益金库中集中执行层风险的系统性隐患:19家声称'多元化策略'的运营商实质共享单一执行路径,单点失败引发连锁清算。这对Jupiter生态的流动性信心造成重大冲击,并引发对DeFi风险披露真实性的质疑。

19 vault operators marketed "diversified strategies" and every single one routed through drift as their execution layer. $150m in JLP deposits just got vaporized. that's 15-20% of jupiter's entire perp liquidity pool gone in 12 minutes. jupiter perps volume already down 40% week

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观 HIGH

油价飙升至2008年以来最高位

布伦特原油现货价格飙升至141.36美元/桶,为2008年金融危机以来最高;WTI期货结算价111.54美元/桶,创2020年以来最大单日绝对涨幅;布伦特期货结算价109.03美元/桶,单日涨幅7.78%。

Brent spot $141.36/bbl (highest since 2008); WTI settle $111.54/bbl (biggest absolute rise since 2020); Brent futures +$7.87 (+7.78%)

市场共识认为霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭已从尾部风险变为基准情景,现货溢价反映实物供应紧张先于期货端。部分分析人士指出股市与油市出现明显背离——股市将战争消息解读为积极信号,而油市在定价供应将进入不可逆短缺阶段,多位资深观察者表示更信任油市的价格发现功能。

The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to S&P Global - CNBC

@stockmktnewz ↗
宏观 HIGH

美联储威廉姆斯:政策立场适当,风险双向平衡

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示货币政策处于正确位置,倾向于维持利率不变,能源价格上涨对通胀和就业的风险"处于平衡状态",能源冲击尚未体现在就业数据中,但将随时间推移进入统计。

Williams: risks 'in balance'; favors holding rates steady; energy pass-through takes 'months or a year'

威廉姆斯的表态被市场解读为偏鸽,强调观察数据而非预防性加息;他承认高能源价格同时冲击通胀与需求两侧,但认为私人信贷市场目前未见系统性风险。债券市场亦呼应这一判断——BMO调查显示,债券交易员认为能源价格上涨更多是增长打击而非通胀冲击。

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said risks to inflation and employment from higher energy prices are "in balance" and that he favors holding interest rates steady.

@business ↗
宏观 HIGH

债市悲观情绪降至10年低点,非农明日公布

BMO调查显示,仅24%债券交易员认为10年期美债收益率下一个15bp波动方向朝上,为2010年11月以来最低;3月非农就业报告将于周五发布。

BMO survey: 24% bulls on 10yr yield (lowest since Nov 2010); March payrolls due Friday

债券市场正在定价"油价上涨→增长下行→宽松预期"的逻辑链,而非担忧通胀再起;交易员普遍预计战争拖累经济动能将超过其推升通胀的效果。分析人士指出,如果非农数据低于预期,这一逻辑将得到强化,但一旦超预期则可能引发快速多杀。

Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow's jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the oil-price surge as being a hit to growth more than inflationary.

@lisaabramowicz1 ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

OpenAI以数亿美元收购播客TBPN

OpenAI以"低数亿美元"收购财经科技播客TBPN,据《金融时报》报道;合同中写入"编辑独立承诺",节目将维持原格式每个工作日直播。

OpenAI acquires TBPN for 'low hundreds of millions' (Financial Times); editorial independence clause written into contract

观察人士认为此次收购标志着科技公司从传统媒体广告转向直接掌控高影响力垂直媒体渠道的战略转变;主持人John Coogan与Sam Altman有十余年合作关系,此举被视为OpenAI在科技传播领域构建叙事基础设施的举动,与Spotify收购Rogan播客路径类似,且合同明确保障编辑独立性。

OpenAI reportedly paid in the "low hundreds of Millions" to acquire TBPN - Financial Times

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

谷歌发布Gemma 4开源模型,四种规格覆盖边缘到旗舰

Google DeepMind正式发布Gemma 4开源模型系列,提供四种规格:31B dense(高性能)、26B MoE(低延迟)、2B及4B(边缘设备),均支持针对特定任务的微调。

Gemma 4: 4 sizes — 31B dense, 26B MoE, 2B, 4B; open source; fine-tunable

发布者定位Gemma 4为同尺寸级别最佳开源模型;其覆盖从边缘端到高性能推理的完整规格矩阵,与Meta Llama系列直接竞争,也被视为西方在开源AI领域对抗中国模型的战略布局之一。

Really excited for this launch of Gemma 4 from @demishassabis and the DeepMind team. Open source models are a key front for the west to have a lead on and this is a very key addition to the effort. Excited to see what developers in SV and around the world can build using this.

@sriramk ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX目标IPO估值升至2万亿美元以上

SpaceX将目标IPO估值从此前传闻的1.75万亿美元上调至超过2万亿美元,据彭博报道;按此估值,SpaceX将超越S&P 500中除5家外的所有公司。

SpaceX target IPO valuation: >$2T (up from ~$1.75T); would rank top 6 in S&P 500 (Bloomberg)

多家媒体和分析人士认为此次估值上调将引领一波AI/科技独角兽IPO潮;Polymarket给出30%的上市概率,反映市场对时间表仍存疑虑;以2万亿美元计,SpaceX市值将超过特斯拉(1.35T)、好市多(450B)和美国运通(200B)三者之和。

BREAKING: SpaceX has boosted its target IPO valuation to above $2 trillion, per Bloomberg. This would make SpaceX bigger than all but 5 companies in the S&P 500.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

亚马逊因伊朗油价危机对卖家加收3.5%燃油附加费

亚马逊宣布对平台卖家征收3.5%"燃油及物流附加费",官方理由为伊朗石油危机推高能源成本,据CNBC报道。

Amazon: +3.5% 'fuel and logistics surcharge' for sellers; cited Iran oil crisis (CNBC)

此次附加费是战争成本从大宗商品市场向电商生态传导的直接案例;卖家将面临利润压缩或涨价压力,最终可能加剧消费者通胀感受;市场将其视为亚马逊将地缘政治风险成本转嫁至第三方卖家的先例。

Amazon to add 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for sellers as Iran war drives up energy prices, per CNBC

@unusual_whales ↗
美股 HIGH

特朗普明日提交1.5万亿美元国防预算申请

据路透社报道,特朗普总统正准备于周五提交1.5万亿美元国防预算申请。

Trump defense budget request: $1.5 trillion (Reuters); to be released Friday

战时背景下的超规模国防预算将直接利好国防承包商板块;批评人士指出持续的军事开支正引发国会议员对财政可持续性的担忧,布隆伯格已就战争财政成本单独制作报道。

🇺🇸 President Trump is preparing to roll out a $1.5 trillion defense budget request tomorrow - Reuters

@stockmktnewz ↗
地缘 HIGH

伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡将长期对美以关闭

伊朗军方发言人谢卡尔奇正式宣布霍尔木兹海峡将对美国和以色列"长期关闭";与此同时,伊朗官员暗示战争结束后海峡将"自然开放",但拒绝承诺任何时间表。

Iran: Strait of Hormuz 'closed long-term' to US & Israel (Shekarchi); 40+ US allies met Thursday to discuss reopening

鹰派分析人士认为伊朗此番表态是将海峡控制权永久化的战略宣言,而非谈判筹码;乐观者将"战后自然开放"解读为留有谈判余地。中文分析账号指出,伊朗外交包装与实际决策由两套人马负责,公开姿态不代表真实意图,且IRGC是维持海峡关闭状态的最大受益者,无主动开放动机。逾40个美国盟友国周四召开会议讨论重开海峡,但未提出可执行方案。

Iranian Military Spokesperson Shekarchi: The Strait of Hormuz will be closed long-term to the US and Israel.

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

IRGC攻击甲骨文迪拜数据中心,AWS巴林区域下线

伊朗革命卫队宣称已打击甲骨文($ORCL)位于迪拜的数据中心;此外,CloudFlare雷达数据显示AWS巴林区域(me-south-1)在4月1日约01:00 UTC遭伊朗袭击后下线,流量归零。

IRGC claims Oracle Dubai data center strike; AWS me-south-1 (Bahrain) offline after Iranian strike ~01:00 UTC Apr 1 (CloudflareRadar)

此次攻击将战争目标从传统军事基础设施扩展至全球云计算关键节点,标志着冲突进入数字基础设施对抗新阶段;甲骨文否认相关报道(未被推文直接确认),但AWS巴林区域实际下线已通过网络流量数据独立证实;事件凸显中东地区云基础设施的单点脆弱性,推动对多区域灾备需求的讨论。

IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY HAVE TARGETED ORACLE'S $ORCL DATA CENTER IN DUBAI - STATE MEDIA

@stockmktnewz ↗
地缘 HIGH

沙特红海出口翻倍至日均500万桶,两周内完成

沙特阿拉伯正以创纪录速度将原油出口从霍尔木兹海峡转向红海:亚布港(Yanbu)石油出货量升至约500万桶/日,两周内翻倍;746英里东西管道满负荷运行。

Saudi Yanbu (Red Sea) crude shipments: ~5M bbl/day, DOUBLED in 2 weeks; East-West pipeline at full capacity

沙特的紧急重路由能力被视为全球石油供应韧性的重要缓冲,但500万桶/日仍远低于霍尔木兹海峡日均通过量(约1700-2000万桶),无法填补缺口;分析人士指出,如果海峡关闭持续,沙特的管道替代方案能力已达上限,进一步减量将不可避免。

Saudi Arabia is rerouting oil supply away from the blocked Strait of Hormuz at a record pace: Crude oil shipments from Yanbu, a port on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, are up to ~5 million barrels per day, DOUBLING in just 2 weeks. This comes as the 746-mile East-West pipeline is

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

美国对专利药进口征收100%关税,盟友享优惠税率

特朗普政府宣布对进口专利药征收100%关税;大型药企有120天提交应对计划;欧洲、日本、韩国、瑞士因已签贸易协议享受15%优惠税率;若将生产迁至美国则税率降至20%。

100% tariff on patented drug imports; 120-day grace period for large pharma; 15% for EU/Japan/South Korea/Switzerland (trade deal); 20% if manufacturing moves to US

制药关税结构被设计为强制离岸产能回流的杠杆,而非单纯贸易保护措施;盟友差异化税率(15%对100%)将国际制药格局与地缘政治绑定;分析认为短期内将推高美国药品价格并压缩跨国药企利润率,120天窗口提供了一定缓冲但也制造了不确定性。

Senior Administration Official: The US is imposing 100% tariff on patented drug imports unless the manufacturer has signed a drug pricing deal or agrees to make the product in the US.

@financialjuice ↗
地缘 HIGH

赫格塞斯要求美国陆军参谋长乔治将军辞职

国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯要求陆军参谋长兰迪·乔治上将辞职并立即退休,据五角大楼官员及CBS新闻报道;赫格塞斯正在物色与特朗普国防理念一致的继任者。

Hegseth asks Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to step down (Pentagon official, CBS News)

此举延续了赫格塞斯对军队最高领导层的清洗模式,被观察人士解读为确保高层军官对特朗普政策绝对服从的系统性行动;在伊朗战争进入关键阶段的背景下,陆军最高指挥岗位出现空缺引发战略稳定性担忧。

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has asked Army Chief of Staff General Randy George to step down, according to a Pentagon official

@business ↗
Crypto HIGH

Drift协议遭黑客攻击,1.5亿美元JLP存款12分钟蒸发

Drift协议遭黑客攻击,19个对外宣称"多元化策略"的穹顶金库均通过Drift作为执行层,导致1.5亿美元JLP存款在12分钟内归零;Jupiter永续合约交易量当周下降40%,损失占Jupiter整个永续流动性池的15-20%。

Drift hack: $150M JLP deposits lost in 12 min; 19 vaults all routed through Drift; Jupiter perps volume -40% WoW; ~15-20% of Jupiter perp liquidity pool

此次攻击揭示了DeFi生态中"表面分散、实质集中"的系统性风险——19个声称策略多元化的金库在执行层高度依赖单一协议,形成隐性单点故障;Toly(Solana联合创始人)随即表态支持禁止在程序内使用durable nonces的技术方案,反映生态对底层安全机制的紧急审视。

19 vault operators marketed "diversified strategies" and every single one routed through drift as their execution layer. $150m in JLP deposits just got vaporized. that's 15-20% of jupiter's entire perp liquidity pool gone in 12 minutes. jupiter perps volume already down 40% week

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto HIGH

Hyperliquid未平仓合约突破20亿美元,年内涨幅达793%

Hyperliquid交易平台Trade[XYZ]未平仓合约规模突破20亿美元,自2026年初以来涨幅达793%。

Hyperliquid Trade[XYZ] OI: >$2B; +793% YTD 2026

Hyperliquid未平仓合约的爆发式增长发生在地缘政治动荡、传统金融资产波动加剧的背景下,表明部分风险偏好资金正流向链上永续合约寻求杠杆敞口;Drift遭黑客攻击后,Hyperliquid作为替代去中心化永续平台的地位可能进一步强化。

Hyperliquid [QT @Blockworks: Open interest on Trade[XYZ] just crossed $2B. Open interest on Trade[XYZ] is up 793% since the start of 2026.]

@fejau_inc ↗
宏观 HIGH

布伦特现货油价飙升至141美元

布伦特原油现货价格飙升至141.36美元/桶,创2008年金融危机以来最高水平,美国原油盘中一度触及114美元

Brent spot $141.36/bbl (highest since 2008); WTI near $114/bbl intraday

霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁推动油价突破关键历史水位,市场开始担忧全球原油库存降至危机性水平。债券市场将油价上涨解读为增长冲击而非通胀信号,与股市呈现明显定价分歧。

The spot price for current physical cargoes of Brent crude oil soared Thursday to $141.36, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, according to S&P Global - CNBC

@stockmktnewz ↗
宏观 HIGH

纽约联储威廉姆斯:倾向维持利率不变

纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示通胀与就业风险均衡,倾向维持当前利率,能源价格上涨将在数月至一年内传导至经济数据

Williams: risks 'in balance,' favors holding rates steady; energy pass-through takes 'months or a year'

威廉姆斯反复强调货币政策处于正确位置,市场解读为美联储在战时能源冲击下不急于行动。他指出私人信贷领域存在市场重新定价迹象,但整体不认为存在系统性风险。

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said risks to inflation and employment from higher energy prices are 'in balance' and that he favors holding interest rates steady.

@business ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

OpenAI以低数亿美元收购科技播客TBPN

OpenAI以"低数亿美元"收购科技播客TBPN,合同中写入编辑独立条款,节目将保持原有形式每日播出

OpenAI acquired TBPN for 'low hundreds of millions' (Financial Times); editorial independence clause in contract

此次收购被视为OpenAI押注媒体影响力和直接受众触达,而非纯粹技术资产并购。市场人士指出这反映了主流科技公司日益认识到新媒体平台对传统媒体的影响力替代,OpenAI旗下已出现8亿用户基础与媒体分发双轮驱动布局。

OpenAI reportedly paid in the 'low hundreds of Millions' to acquire TBPN - Financial Times

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技 HIGH

阿尔忒弥斯II号4名宇航员启航绕月

阿尔忒弥斯II号飞船于4月1日升空,4名宇航员执行10天绕月飞行任务,将抵达人类有史以来最深远的太空位置

Artemis II: 4 astronauts, 10-day lunar voyage, deepest human spaceflight ever; crew reported Microsoft Outlook issues en route

阿尔忒弥斯II号成功升空标志着人类重返月球轨道的历史性里程碑,在中国宣布2030年登月计划的背景下战略意义突出。任务途中机组甚至遭遇Outlook技术故障并向地面控制请求技术支援,成为轶闻。

A day after liftoff, Artemis II is now well on its way. Four astronauts are on a ten-day voyage around the moon and back, traveling deeper into space than any human has ever before.

@newshour ↗
美股 HIGH

SpaceX目标IPO估值超2万亿美元

SpaceX将目标IPO估值上调至2万亿美元以上,较此前传闻1.75万亿美元提升,若成功将成史上规模最大IPO

SpaceX target IPO valuation >$2T (up from ~$1.75T); would exceed combined mktcap of Tesla+Costco+AmEx; Polymarket: 30% probability

彭博报道触发市场广泛关注,2万亿美元估值将使SpaceX成为仅次于标普500前五大公司的体量,多位分析师认为此次IPO将引领AI/科技领域IPO潮。Polymarket预测市场仅给出30%成功概率,显示市场对实际落地存在较大不确定性。

BREAKING: SpaceX has boosted its target IPO valuation to above $2 trillion, per Bloomberg. This would make SpaceX bigger than all but 5 companies in the S&P 500.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股 HIGH

OpenAI股权曝光:微软持27%增值18倍

OpenAI股权结构披露,微软持有约27%股权,其130亿美元投资当前增值约18倍,OpenAI将带来约1650亿美元员工流动性

MSFT owns ~27% of OpenAI; ~18x return on $13B investment; $165B total employee liquidity

股权结构曝光引发市场对旧金山房地产预期升温,估算1650亿美元员工流动性将对湾区资产价格产生重大影响。Khosla仅有15亿美元敞口被部分投资者认为低于预期,Ashton Kutcher基金持有13亿美元成为意外亮点。

$165B of employee liquidity coming. SF housing market is going to be cooked.

@beffjezos ↗
地缘 HIGH

美国首次空袭伊朗桥梁基础设施

美国对伊朗桥梁实施首次打击,特朗普威胁将轰炸伊朗"回到石器时代",Axios报道美方可能追加更多桥梁目标

First US bridge strike in Iran; Trump threatened 'Stone Ages'; more bridge targets likely per Axios

首次桥梁打击标志着美国对伊行动从军事目标向基础设施升级,升级意味明确。特朗普同时宣称战争将在2-3周内结束,但分析人士认为伊朗实际掌握战争结束的定义权,美方无法单方面宣布任务完成。

BREAKING: The US will likely target more bridges in Iran after conducting their first strike on an Iranian bridge today just hours after President Trump threatened to bomb the country 'back to the Stone Ages,' per Axios.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘 HIGH

特朗普宣布1.5万亿美元国防预算

特朗普即将公布下一财年1.5万亿美元国防预算请求

$1.5 trillion defense budget request for next fiscal year (Reuters)

该预算规模前所未有,将使国防开支占GDP比重大幅上升,体现战时财政倾斜。批评人士指出战争持续成本攀升,国会已出现跨党派质疑声音。

BREAKING: Trump will unveil a $1,500,000,000,000 defense budget request for the next fiscal year, per Reuters

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

赫格塞斯要求陆军参谋长战时退休

国防部长赫格塞斯要求美国陆军参谋长兰迪·乔治将军立即退休,据报道正寻找与特朗普理念完全一致的继任者

Hegseth asks Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to step down immediately; seeking Trump-aligned successor

这是战时军队最高级别人事变动,显示赫格塞斯正推进军队领导层政治化改造。时机选在美军对伊行动持续升级期间,引发外界对指挥链稳定性的担忧。

Hegseth has asked U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to step down and retire immediately, per CBS

@unusual_whales ↗
地缘 HIGH

35国会议讨论重开霍尔木兹海峡

欧洲及中东国家领导人在纽约和伦敦召开35国会议,讨论重开霍尔木兹海峡方案,最乐观情景下海峡至少封闭至5月

35-nation meeting in NY/London; Trump: 'two-to-three more weeks of war'; Hormuz likely closed until May minimum

特朗普2-3周结束战争的时间表引发投资者担忧,分析人士认为伊朗无意战后放弃对海峡控制权,国际外交努力缺乏实质执行力。油市对此定价远比股市悲观,两个市场出现明显分歧。

"brace for impact" #oil [QT @Amena__Bakr: At this point and under the most optimistic scenario Hormuz will remain shut till May. Now brace for impact #OOTT]

@joshyoung ↗
Crypto HIGH

Hyperliquid未平仓合约突破20亿美元

去中心化永续合约平台Hyperliquid未平仓合约穿越20亿美元,自2026年初以来增幅达793%

Hyperliquid open interest crossed $2B; +793% since start of 2026

Hyperliquid的爆发式增长反映了链上衍生品市场的快速扩张,793%的年初增幅显示机构和散户对去中心化永续合约的需求大幅上升,对中心化衍生品交易所形成实质性替代压力。

Hyperliquid [QT @Blockworks: Open interest on Trade[XYZ] just crossed $2B. Open interest on Trade[XYZ] is up 793% since the start of 2026.]

@fejau_inc ↗
Crypto HIGH

Base链活跃地址降至历史最低

Base链日活地址降至历史最低,回落至2024年7月水平约50万DAU,远低于Arbitrum的120万和Optimism的80万,尽管Coinbase已投入数亿美元

Base all-time low active addresses: 500K DAU vs Arbitrum 1.2M, Optimism 800K; USDC velocity doubled; x402 settlement dominance 75%

Coinbase在Base上投入数亿美元后用户活跃度却创历史低点,与竞争对手的差距显著扩大。尽管USDC流通速度翻倍、x402结算占主导,整体DAU数据引发市场对Base生态用户增长战略有效性的质疑。

base just hit all-time low active addresses. regressed to july 2024 levels after 20 months of coinbase pouring hundreds of millions into it. 500k DAUs vs arbitrum's 1.2m and optimism's 800k. USDC velocity doubled and x402 settlement dominance at 75% though. it's becoming a

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观

BYD 3月出口同比大增65%

比亚迪3月出口及海外销售同比增长65%,伊朗战争推高油价是推动电动车需求激增的主要因素。

BYD exports and overseas sales +65% YoY in March; surging oil prices from Iran war cited as demand driver; per Bloomberg

伊朗战争意外加速了全球电动车渗透率提升,油价压力使消费者更快转向电动出行。比亚迪作为最大出口受益者,其3月数据也映射出中国电动车在全球市场份额的持续扩张。

BYD's exports and overseas sales climbed 65% in March as surging oil prices due to the Iran war boosted demand for electric cars, per Bloomberg

@unusual_whales ↗
宏观

钻石价格跌至本世纪最低点

钻石价格已跌至21世纪以来最低水平。

Diamond prices crashed to lowest level this century

钻石价格的历史性低点反映出实验室培育钻石供给冲击持续压制天然钻石价值,叠加消费降级趋势,奢侈品需求结构正在发生深层变化。

BREAKING: The price of diamonds has crashed to its lowest level this century.

@polymarket ↗
宏观

2月JOLTS招聘骤降至485万

2026年2月JOLTS报告显示招聘人数从1月的534.7万大幅降至484.9万,职位空缺688.2万(4.2%),就业市场呈现晚期周期回落特征。

Feb 2026 JOLTS hires: 4.849M vs 5.347M in Jan vs 5.236M YoY; job openings 6.882M (4.2% rate)

职位空缺表面稳定,但招聘活动大幅萎缩是劳动力市场深层走弱的先行指标。从历史经验看,招聘率的持续下降往往领先于失业率上升约两个季度,当前数据与晚期经济周期的典型图谱高度吻合。

JOLTS And The Anatomy Of A Late Cycle Labor Rollover. The February 2026 JOLTS report looks stable only if you focus on openings. Openings were 6.882 million and 4.2% but hires fell to 4.849 million from 5.347 million in January and 5.236 million a year earlier.

@onechancefreedm ↗
AI / 科技

Anthropic通用智能体Cowork预期超越Claude Code

Anthropic高管表示,公司通用AI智能体Cowork预计将覆盖比明星产品Claude Code更广泛的市场。

Anthropic "Cowork" general-purpose AI agent; expected wider market reach than Claude Code

Cowork的定位标志着Anthropic将战略重心从垂直开发者工具向通用AI智能体市场迁移。若成功,这将使Anthropic在企业AI应用层与OpenAI Operator等产品展开更直接的竞争,并可能重塑其商业化路径。

A top Anthropic executive expects the company's general-purpose AI agent, Cowork, to reach a wider market than Claude Code, the hit product that helped turn the startup into an AI juggernaut

@business ↗
AI / 科技

gstack创始人Garry加入Replit任杰出工程师

gstack创始人Garry正式以"最杰出工程师"身份加入Replit,双方将合力面向10亿软件创作者推广gstack,目标是让每日10万行代码成为新常态。

Garry (gstack) joins Replit as "most Distinguished Engineer"; target: 100k lines of code/day as new normal; goal: next billion software creators

此次合并将gstack的代码生成技术与Replit的庞大开发者社区结合,剑指AI辅助编程的大众化市场,可能对GitHub Copilot等现有工具形成直接竞争压力。

gstack + Replit = Skynet

@beffjezos ↗
AI / 科技

METR研究员:AI进展速度高度规律可预测

METR Evals研究员发布博文指出,AI能力进展不仅迅速,且呈现出"显著规律性",这一规律早在库兹韦尔时代已有准确预示。

AI progress described as "remarkably regular" by METR Evals researcher; Kurzweil cited as accurate early predictor of AI timelines

AI进展规律性的实证研究为"直线外推"预测方法提供学术背书,也意味着当前的能力提升轨迹可能比多数人预期的更可预测。这对AI时间线判断和投资决策均有重要参考意义,也间接支持了激进AI发展预测的可信度。

shoutout to kurzweil who was doing "straight lines on graphs" before it was cool and managed to predict the timeline to certain ai capabilities extraordinarily well

@tszzl ↗
AI / 科技

PyTorch 2.11集成FlashAttention-4等五大新功能

PyTorch 2.11举行线上Q&A,重点展示FlexAttention与FlashAttention-4集成、可微集合通信、MPS算子扩展、RNN/LSTM GPU导出支持及硬件后端扩展五大能力更新。

PyTorch 2.11; FlexAttention + FlashAttention-4; differentiable collectives; MPS operator expansion; RNN/LSTM GPU export support; hardware backend expansion

Yesterday's PyTorch 2.11 live Q&A with Nikita Shulga and Andrey Talman, moderated by Chris Gottbrath, covered five major focus areas: FlexAttention with FlashAttention-4, differentiable collectives, MPS operator expansion, RNN/LSTM GPU export support, and hardware backend

@pytorch ↗
美股

SpaceX拟750亿融资刷新市场记录

据报道,SpaceX正推进代号"Project Apex"的融资计划,规模达750亿美元,将超过沙特阿美历史最高IPO记录的两倍以上。

SpaceX Project Apex; $75 billion; would more than double Saudi Aramco's all-time IPO record (~$29.4B)

若成功落地,Project Apex将成为资本市场史上规模最大的单笔融资事件,进一步巩固SpaceX在商业航天领域的垄断地位,并可能为最终IPO铺路。阿尔忒弥斯II当日成功发射进一步提升了商业航天赛道的市场关注度。

The $75 billion SpaceX bet that rewrites market history. Project Apex would more than double Saudi Aramco's all-time IPO record.

@thenextweb ↗
美股

KKR私信贷零售基金限制赎回

KKR旗下面向零售投资者的非上市业务发展公司KKR FS Income Trust在赎回申请激增后宣布限制赎回。

KKR FS Income Trust curbed redemptions; increase in redemption requests; non-traded BDC for retail investors; per shareholder letter

私信贷产品零售化过程中的流动性风险再度暴露。KKR此举可能引发市场对同类结构性产品(如Apollo、Blackstone BREIT等)的连锁担忧,加剧非流动性资产赎回压力。

KKR's non-traded business development company KKR FS Income Trust, a type of private credit fund for retail investors, curbed redemptions after receiving an increase in such requests, according to a shareholder letter

@business ↗
美股

英特尔股价因转型信号上涨

英特尔最新战略举措被市场解读为"转型"信号,带动股价上涨。

Intel stock pops; latest move signals a "turnaround" is afoot

Intel's stock pops as its latest move signals a 'turnaround' is afoot

@marketwatch ↗
美股

美股连续两日上涨,等待伊朗讲话

美股在特朗普就伊朗战争发表全国电视讲话前连续第二日上涨,但分析师警告涨势缺乏实质性领涨板块。

Stock market climbed second straight day; Trump scheduled to address nation on Iran war; Jim Cramer warns rally lacks real leadership

市场的连续反弹可能反映出投资者对战争快速结束的预期定价,但Cramer等分析师警告AI驱动的涨势未能激发广泛信心。股指走势高度依赖特朗普当晚讲话的实质内容。

The stock market climbed for the second straight day as President Trump prepares to address the nation about the Iran war

@wsjmarkets ↗
地缘

特朗普成首位出席最高法院庭审的在任总统

特朗普出席最高法院关于限制出生公民权行政令的口头辩论,历时90分钟,成为有史以来首位出席最高法院庭审的在任美国总统;多位大法官对该行政令合宪性表示质疑。

First sitting president to attend SCOTUS oral arguments; birthright citizenship executive order challenge; 90 minutes; SCOTUS justices cast doubts on Trump's order

特朗普亲临庭审引发宪法先例讨论。若最高法院否决该行政令,将是特朗普移民政策的重大挫败;若支持,则将颠覆逾百年的宪法实践。保守派法学家指出,若大法官坚守原旨主义立场,应支持出生公民权的历史解释。

President Donald Trump became the first sitting president to attend oral arguments at the Supreme Court on Wednesday when he sat in to hear a case challenging his executive order aimed at restricting birthright citizenship. He attended the proceedings for 90 minutes and left

@newshour ↗
地缘

特朗普威胁摧毁伊朗淡化设施

特朗普威胁摧毁伊朗海水淡化厂,此举可能引发人道主义危机;同时表示只要确信伊朗无法建造核武器,美军可在2-3周内单方面结束攻势,无需伊朗同意停火。

Trump threatens to destroy Iran water desalination plants; could end offensive unilaterally "in two to three weeks" without Iran ceasefire agreement; condition: confidence Iran cannot build nuclear weapon

对民用基础设施的明确威胁标志着冲突烈度升级,国际社会对人道主义危机风险的警惕急剧上升。"单方面结束攻势"的表述被中文分析人士解读为对市场危险信号——美军撤出不等于伊朗停止反击,届时霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭风险将真正开始定价。

President Trump has threatened to destroy water desalination plants in Iran, an action that could spark a humanitarian crisis.

@business ↗
Crypto

谷歌警告量子计算或于2029年破解比特币

谷歌发出"Q-Day"警告,评估量子计算机可能在2029年前具备破解比特币椭圆曲线加密系统的能力。

Google "Q-Day" warning; quantum computing could crack Bitcoin encryption by 2029

量子威胁的时间窗口若属实,将为比特币协议升级带来紧迫压力。目前比特币社区已有量子抗性地址的讨论,但共识机制的升级在技术和政治层面均面临极大阻力,"2029年"时间线被部分研究者认为过于激进。

Google Issues 'Q-Day' Warning. Quantum Could Crack Bitcoin Encryption by 2029.

@barronsonline ↗
Crypto

Tether政府事务主管将领导亲加密超级PAC

Tether政府事务主管Jesse Spiro宣布将领导亲加密货币超级政治行动委员会"Fellowship PAC"。

Tether Head of Government Affairs Jesse Spiro to lead pro-crypto super PAC "Fellowship PAC"

Tether高管直接介入美国政治献金体系,标志着稳定币行业对监管博弈的资本化升级。Fellowship PAC的成立可能将加密货币政策议题进一步推向2026年中期选举的政治前台,加速行业游说力度。

TETHER HEAD OF GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS JESSE SPIRO TO LEAD PRO-CRYPTO SUPER PAC 'FELLOWSHIP PAC'

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

比特币需求承压,机构买盘难抵广泛抛售

据CryptoQuant数据分析,尽管机构买盘有所回升,比特币整体需求仍承压,市场广泛抛售迹象持续。

Bitcoin demand under pressure; institutional buying picking up but broader market still selling; per CryptoQuant data analytics

机构买入与散户抛售并存的结构性分化,历史上往往预示价格底部的形成过程,但也可能表明市场尚未完成去杠杆。伊朗战争背景下的避险情绪和法币流动性压力可能是散户持续出货的主要推手。

Bitcoin demand remains under pressure even as institutional buying picks up, suggesting the broader market is still selling the token, according to data analytics platform CryptoQuant

@business ↗
宏观

瑞银:持续扰动情景下美元兑日元年底或触175

瑞银策略师判断日元贬值趋势将延续,尽管日本官员不断加强干预言辞;在"持续扰动"情景下,预测年底美元/日元汇率可能达到175。

UBS: USD/JPY target 175 by year-end in extended disruption scenario; Japan officials ramping up verbal intervention

伊朗战争引发的避险情绪与能源价格冲击对日本经常账户造成双重压力,令日元承压,日本官员口头干预效果有限。175的目标水平代表从当前汇率的大幅进一步贬值,将对日本进口成本和通胀预期产生显著影响。

The yen's slide is seen continuing even as Japanese officials ramp up intervention rhetoric, according to UBS strategists, who see the dollar-yen pair reaching 175 by year-end in an "extended disruption" scenario

@business ↗
宏观

高盛撤回2026年中国降息10基点预测

高盛撤回了2026年中国降息10个基点的预测。

Goldman Sachs withdraws China 10bp rate cut forecast for 2026

高盛撤回中国降息预测表明其对中国央行货币宽松空间的判断发生转变,可能反映伊朗战争引发的全球通胀压力及人民币汇率稳定需求对宽松路径的约束。这一变化对中国国内债市预期及外资配置取向具有直接参考意义。

今日必读 💴高盛撤回今年中国降息10基点预测

@business ↗
AI / 科技

Anthropic通用AI智能体Cowork预计覆盖比Claude Code更广市场

Anthropic高管公开表示,公司通用人工智能智能体Cowork预计将触达比现有明星产品Claude Code更广泛的市场群体。

Anthropic Cowork; general-purpose AI agent; expected wider market reach than Claude Code

Anthropic将Cowork定位为面向更广泛用户的通用AI智能体,超越了Claude Code主要服务专业开发者的定位,指向AI产品从专业工具向大众消费品的战略演进。此举与a16z等机构"下一个十亿软件创作者"的主题叙事高度吻合,或预示Anthropic在面向企业和消费者市场双线扩张的战略布局。

A top Anthropic executive expects the company's general-purpose AI agent, Cowork, to reach a wider market than Claude Code, the hit product that helped turn the startup into an AI juggernaut

@business ↗
AI / 科技

Garry加入Replit任杰出工程师,gstack联手推进十亿开发者目标

Garry以Replit最高级别杰出工程师身份加入,将携gstack与Replit合作,目标是将每天10万行代码的开发能力普及至下一个十亿软件创作者。

Garry joins Replit as Distinguished Engineer; gstack integration; 100k lines of code/day target; next billion software creators

此举代表AI辅助编程生态的重要整合——gstack的工程能力与Replit大众开发者平台结合,可能显著降低软件创作门槛。a16z同日发声"专业开发者曾是软件创作的唯一守门人,但这一局面正在改变",与此次合并形成主题共振,指向AI驱动的软件民主化浪潮提速。

gstack + Replit = Skynet

@beffjezos ↗
AI / 科技

Waymo自动驾驶车辆仍被禁止在华盛顿特区运营

尽管Waymo自动驾驶汽车已在多个美国城市广泛运营,其在华盛顿特区的部署仍因当地官员以程序性障碍为由而被持续阻止,工会势力被认为是主要阻力来源。

Waymo AVs still prohibited in Washington DC; local officials using procedural barriers; union influence cited

保罗·格雷厄姆指出DC居民因工会政治而无法享受已在其他地区普及的更安全出行方式,揭示自动驾驶技术商业化在政治生态复杂地区面临的非技术性障碍。这一现象也折射出AI与自动化技术落地过程中劳工利益团体的持续阻力。

It's strange to think that people in DC don't know what the future is like, thanks to unions.

@paulg ↗
美股

布鲁克菲尔德秘鲁收费公路子公司5亿美元债券违约

布鲁克菲尔德资产管理旗下秘鲁收费公路运营子公司发生5亿美元债券违约,持有该债务多数的为秘鲁养老基金,此前该公司已因秘鲁总统竞选人批评而身陷政治争议。

Brookfield toll subsidiary defaults on $500M bonds; Peru; pension funds hold majority of debt; presidential election controversy

违约直接波及秘鲁养老金体系,且处于政治高度敏感时期,凸显新兴市场基础设施债务在政治风险上升环境中的脆弱性。布鲁克菲尔德作为全球顶级另类资产管理机构,此次子公司违约对其新兴市场基础设施投资声誉构成潜在负面冲击。

A toll operator subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management that drew the ire of one of Peru's top presidential contenders has defaulted on $500 million in bonds, hurting pension funds that own a majority of the debt

@business ↗
美股

双西格玛联席CEO霍夫曼任职不足两年辞职

斯科特·霍夫曼在出任700亿美元量化对冲基金双西格玛(Two Sigma)联席CEO不足两年后宣告辞职,为该基金多年内部纷争造成的最新高层变动。

Scott Hoffman resigned from Two Sigma Investments as co-CEO; tenure <2 years; $70B AUM hedge fund; ongoing internal infighting

霍夫曼离职延续了双西格玛管理层动荡的模式,进一步加剧外界对这家量化巨头公司治理稳定性的担忧。持续的高层不稳定可能影响机构投资者对其资产配置的信心,也为竞争对手挖角双西格玛顶尖量化人才提供机会。

Scott Hoffman resigned from Two Sigma Investments after less than two years as its co-CEO, the latest fallout from years of infighting at the $70 billion hedge fund

@business ↗
地缘

特朗普成首位出席最高法院口头辩论的在任总统

特朗普成为美国历史上首位出席最高法院口头辩论的在任总统,听取了针对其限制出生公民权行政令挑战案的辩论全程90分钟。

First sitting president to attend SCOTUS oral arguments; 90 minutes; birthright citizenship EO challenge; 14th Amendment; Trump admin: birth tourism is evidence EO is needed

特朗普亲赴最高法院被视为对出生公民权案件高度重视的政治信号。案件挑战其任期首日签署的行政令,若最高法院支持,将颠覆美国逾百年的宪法实践;此举打破总统不出席司法审理的惯例,部分法律观察人士认为最终裁决将比预期更为接近。

President Donald Trump became the first sitting president to attend oral arguments at the Supreme Court on Wednesday when he sat in to hear a case challenging his executive order aimed at restricting birthright citizenship. He attended the proceedings for 90 minutes and left

@newshour ↗
地缘

印度尼西亚摩鹿加海7.8级地震引发多国海啸预警

印度尼西亚北摩鹿加海于UTC时间4月1日22:48发生7.8级地震,太平洋海啸预警中心随即发布针对印度尼西亚、菲律宾及马来西亚的海啸预警。

7.8 magnitude earthquake, Northern Molucca Sea, Indonesia; 2248 UTC April 1; tsunami warning issued for Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia

此次地震震级较高且位于海底,触发区域性多国海啸预警,对东南亚海运通道和港口运营存在短期扰动风险。在全球供应链已因伊朗战争承压的背景下,东南亚关键海运节点的额外冲击值得跨资产风险管理关注。

BREAKING: 7.8 magnitude offshore earthquake strikes Indonesia, triggering a tsunami alert.

@polymarket ↗
Crypto

Tether政府事务主管将出任亲加密超级政治行动委员会领导人

Tether政府事务主管杰西·斯皮罗(Jesse Spiro)将出任亲加密货币超级政治行动委员会"Fellowship PAC"的领导人。

Tether Head of Government Affairs Jesse Spiro; to lead Fellowship PAC; pro-crypto super PAC

Tether高管直接介入政治游说架构,表明加密行业在美国政治生态中的影响力布局持续深化。Fellowship PAC的组建恰逢美国稳定币立法和加密监管框架密集出台期,政治资本的积累可能直接影响稳定币法案的具体条款走向。

TETHER HEAD OF GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS JESSE SPIRO TO LEAD PRO-CRYPTO SUPER PAC 'FELLOWSHIP PAC'

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

机构持续增持但比特币整体市场需求仍承压

据链上数据平台CryptoQuant数据,尽管机构资金持续买入,比特币整体市场需求依然承压,显示更广泛市场仍处于净卖出状态。

Bitcoin demand under pressure; institutional buying picking up; broader market net selling — CryptoQuant data

机构增持与散户卖出之间的分化表明比特币市场正经历筹码从散户向机构的结构性转移,但尚未形成足以推动价格突破的整体净买入动能。这一格局在伊朗战争引发的全球风险规避情绪高企背景下尤为值得关注,表明加密资产避险属性在机构与零售层面的分歧正在扩大。

Bitcoin demand remains under pressure even as institutional buying picks up, suggesting the broader market is still selling the token, according to data analytics platform CryptoQuant

@business ↗
Crypto

谷歌发出量子末日警告:2029年或可破解比特币加密

谷歌发出"量子末日"(Q-Day)警告,称量子计算机可能于2029年具备破解比特币加密系统的能力。

Google 'Q-Day' warning; quantum computing could crack Bitcoin encryption by 2029

谷歌的警告引发对比特币长期安全性的根本性质疑,迫使加密社区正视抗量子加密迁移的紧迫性。2029年的时间线意味着比特币协议需要在数年内完成加密算法升级,否则将面临系统性安全威胁,这一风险对持有大量比特币的机构投资者的长期配置逻辑构成挑战。

Google Issues 'Q-Day' Warning. Quantum Could Crack Bitcoin Encryption by 2029.

@barronsonline ↗
宏观

讲话后金价跌破4700美元,10年期美债收益率重回4.40%以上

特朗普讲话结束后,金价跌破4700美元/盎司,银价跌破73美元/盎司,同时10年期美债收益率重新向4.40%以上攀升

Gold <$4,700/oz; Silver <$73/oz post-speech; 10Y Treasury yield back toward 4.40%+

讲话前市场做多黄金、压低收益率以对冲地缘风险,但特朗普未宣布战争结束反而持续升级的表态引发避险仓位获利了结。10年期收益率上行则反映市场对持久通胀及财政供给压力的重新定价,分析师预警后续将出现显著波动。

The entire market expected President Trump to de-escalate the Iran War. That did not happen. Minutes later, the 10Y Note Yield is back on its way to 4.40%+. We expect significant volatility ahead.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观

2月JOLTS招聘人数骤降至485万,较1月减少50万

2026年2月JOLTS报告显示职位空缺689万(空缺率4.2%)表面稳定,但实际招聘人数从1月的535万骤降至485万,较一年前的524万亦大幅下降

JOLTS Feb 2026: openings 6.882M (4.2% rate); hires 4.849M vs 5.347M in Jan vs 5.236M year-ago

职位空缺数字的稳定具有误导性,招聘人数骤降才是核心信号,暗示企业正放缓实际用工节奏,劳动力市场可能正在经历周期后期的滚动式恶化,与经济放缓预期相符。

JOLTS And The Anatomy Of A Late Cycle Labor Rollover. The February 2026 JOLTS report looks stable only if you focus on openings. Openings were 6.882 million and 4.2% but hires fell to 4.849 million from 5.347 million in January and 5.236 million a year earlier.

@onechancefreedm ↗
宏观

欧盟能源专员警告:即使停火油气价格也难短期恢复正常

欧盟能源专员周二警告,因伊朗战争飙升的欧洲油气价格,即便战争明日结束,短期内也无法恢复至正常水平

EU energy commissioner: elevated Europe oil/gas prices will persist even if peace declared tomorrow

供应链扰乱和地缘风险溢价已深度嵌入欧洲能源价格,官方预警表明通胀压力将比市场预期更为持久,对欧洲央行降息路径构成约束,同时进一步加剧欧洲企业成本压力。

Skyrocketing oil and gas prices in Europe as a result of the ongoing Iran war won't return to normal levels any time soon, even if peace is declared tomorrow, the European Union's energy commissioner warned Tuesday.

@newshour ↗
AI / 科技

Valar Atomics完成4.5亿美元融资,为数据中心部署核反应堆

Valar Atomics完成4.5亿美元融资,由一位27岁创始人主导,目标是在每个数据中心背后部署小型核反应堆以满足AI算力的巨大能源需求

Valar Atomics raised $450M to build nuclear reactors behind data centres

AI算力扩张对基荷电力的极端需求正在催生核能与数据中心深度结合的新赛道,大额融资表明资本市场对这一方向的强烈信心。能源供给已成为AI基础设施扩张的关键瓶颈,核能被视为满足不间断高密度用电需求的战略选择。

This 27-year-old wants nuclear reactors behind every data centre. Valar Atomics just raised $450M to make it happen.

@thenextweb ↗
AI / 科技

Anthropic在DMCAbench基准测试中达到最新SOTA

Anthropic在DMCAbench基准测试中取得当前最优性能(SOTA)

Anthropic achieved SOTA on DMCAbench

消息来自知名AI评论人士,缺乏官方技术细节,具体模型版本及量化指标尚待证实。若属实,将进一步巩固Anthropic在前沿AI能力竞争中的地位,尤其在特定能力维度上对竞争对手构成压力。

Anthropic just achieved SOTA in DMCAbench

@beffjezos ↗
美股

中国科技公司季度利润增速创三年最低

中国科技公司公布的最新季度利润增速为近三年来最弱,令押注板块复苏的投资者信心受挫

Chinese tech: weakest quarterly profit growth in 3 years

宏观压力、地缘风险溢价及需求疲软令中国科技股估值持续承压,即便部分公司受益于AI相关需求,整体盈利改善预期仍面临严峻考验,板块性复苏的时间表存在不确定性。

Chinese technology companies reported their weakest quarterly profit growth in three years, leaving more doubt for investors looking for a recovery in sector stocks.

@business ↗
美股

两西格玛联席CEO霍夫曼任职不足两年宣告离职

Two Sigma Investments联席CEO Scott Hoffman在任职不足两年后宣布辞职,成为这家管理700亿美元资产的对冲基金多年内斗风波中最新一次高管人事动荡

Scott Hoffman resigned as co-CEO of Two Sigma (<2 years tenure); firm AUM ~$70B

Two Sigma高管层的持续动荡折射出其内部治理矛盾难以根本解决,对机构投资者信心及基金运营稳定性构成潜在风险,也引发市场对其核心人才留存能力的担忧。

Scott Hoffman resigned from Two Sigma Investments after less than two years as its co-CEO, the latest fallout from years of infighting at the $70 billion hedge fund.

@business ↗
地缘

美军发布"史诗猛攻"行动4月1日战况更新

美国中央司令部(CENTCOM)正式发布"史诗猛攻"行动(Operation Epic Fury)4月1日最新战况更新

CENTCOM: Operation Epic Fury April 1st Update

官方战况通报与特朗普讲话中"核心战略目标接近完成"的表述相互印证,但公开推文未披露具体战术细节。这是迄今最新的美军官方战争进展确认。

Operation Epic Fury: April 1st Update

@centcom ↗
地缘

印尼摩鹿加海发生7.8级地震,多国发布海啸预警

印度尼西亚北摩鹿加海于UTC 2248发生7.8级地震,太平洋海啸预警中心随即对印尼、菲律宾、马来西亚发布海啸预警

M7.8 earthquake, Northern Molucca Sea, Indonesia, 2248 UTC Apr 1; tsunami warning: Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia

震级较高且为近海地震,海啸潜在影响范围涵盖多个东南亚国家。事件与中东战争同日发生,增加了全球风险因子叠加的复杂性,对区域供应链和金融市场情绪构成额外冲击。

BREAKING: 7.8 magnitude offshore earthquake strikes Indonesia, triggering a tsunami alert.

@polymarket ↗
Crypto

比特币跌破67000美元,跟随美股期货创日内新低

美股期货创日内新低之际,比特币价格同步跌破67000美元

Bitcoin <$67,000, coinciding with US equity futures hitting new low of day

比特币与风险资产的高度相关性再次得到验证,特朗普强硬讲话引发的风险厌恶情绪同步传导至加密市场,未能在地缘政治升级环境中发挥数字黄金的避险功能。

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $67,000 as US stock market futures hit a new low of day.

@kobeissiletter ↗
Crypto

穆迪给予比特币支持债券Ba2初步评级

穆迪给予一只比特币支持债券Ba2初步信用评级,是主流评级机构首次正式评级此类加密资产支持固定收益产品

Moody's provisional Ba2 rating on Bitcoin-backed bond (speculative grade)

Ba2属于投机级别中相对较高的评级(低于投资级门槛两档),穆迪的介入标志着比特币支持债券正尝试进入更广泛的机构投资视野。评级机构参与本身具有里程碑意义,但投机级别的评定也反映出此类资产仍被视为高风险产品。

Moody's grants a provisional Ba2 rating to the Bitcoin-backed bond.

@thestreet ↗
宏观

十年期美债收益率重回4.40%

特朗普演讲被市场解读为升级信号,10年期美国国债收益率随即反弹,重新指向4.40%以上。

10Y Treasury yield back toward 4.40%+

市场此前押注停火降级,国债被买入作为避险资产;演讲后预期逆转,国债遭抛售,收益率上行。分析人士预警后市将出现显著波动。

The entire market expected President Trump to de-escalate the Iran War. That did not happen. Minutes later, the 10Y Note Yield is back on its way to 4.40%+. We expect significant volatility ahead.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观

黄金跌破4700美元白银跌破73美元

特朗普演讲结束后,黄金价格跌破4700美元/盎司,白银价格跌破73美元/盎司。

Gold <$4,700/oz; Silver <$73/oz post-speech

演讲前市场押注停火,贵金属被买入作为避险资产;演讲后战争延续预期重建,但油价急涨带来的通胀担忧改变了贵金属走势,市场短期呈现风险资产与避险资产双杀格局。

BREAKING: Gold prices fall below $4,700/oz and silver prices fall below $73/oz after President Trump's speech on the Iran War.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观

2月JOLTS招聘人数骤降至484.9万

2026年2月JOLTS报告显示,职位空缺688.2万(空缺率4.2%),但招聘人数降至484.9万,远低于1月的534.7万及去年同期的523.6万。

JOLTS Feb 2026: openings 6.882M (4.2% rate); hires 4.849M vs 5.347M prior month, 5.236M year-ago

职位空缺表面稳定,但招聘人数骤降揭示劳动力市场正经历晚周期回撤。招聘率的大幅下降表明企业在不确定环境下已显著收紧实际招募行动,表面数据掩盖了深层恶化。

JOLTS And The Anatomy Of A Late Cycle Labor Rollover. The February 2026 JOLTS report looks stable only if you focus on openings. Openings were 6.882 million and 4.2% but hires fell to 4.849 million from 5.347 million in January and 5.236 million a year earlier.

@onechancefreedm ↗
宏观

瑞银预测美元兑日元年内或升至175

瑞银策略师预计,在"持续扰动"情景下,美元兑日元将于年底升至175,日本官员的干预表态被认为难以阻止日元贬值。

UBS: USD/JPY target 175 year-end in 'extended disruption' scenario

伊朗冲突推升能源价格,对日本这一能源进口大国构成双重打击——贸易条件恶化与日元走弱相互强化。即便日本官员加强口头干预,市场对其实际效力持怀疑态度。

The yen's slide is seen continuing even as Japanese officials ramp up intervention rhetoric, according to UBS strategists, who see the dollar-yen pair reaching 175 by year-end in an 'extended disruption' scenario.

@business ↗
AI / 科技

Anthropic在DMCAbench取得SOTA成绩

据知情人士披露,Anthropic在DMCAbench基准测试中取得了当前最优性能(SOTA)成绩。

Anthropic: SOTA on DMCAbench

Anthropic just achieved SOTA in DMCAbench

@beffjezos ↗
AI / 科技

OpenAI COO建议初创公司构建于AI浪潮外缘

OpenAI首席运营官Brad Lightcap公开建议AI时代的初创公司在能力扩散的"波纹外缘"构建产品,避免在核心能力层与大模型厂商直接竞争。

OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap: 'Build on the outer edge of the ripple' — AI era startup strategy

这一建议隐含了对AI能力渗透路径的判断:核心能力将被大模型厂商持续内化,初创公司的生存空间在于率先探索尚未被覆盖的应用边界。有观点对此解读为大公司将最终吞噬初创公司的底层工具链。

Translation: 'All your harness are belong to us'

@beffjezos ↗
AI / 科技

a16z:AI正打破专业开发者软件垄断

a16z引述Wabi CEO Eugenia Kuyda观点:软件开发权限正从全球约2000万专业开发者向更广泛人群扩散,这一转变在过去一年内显著加速。

a16z/Wabi CEO: '20 million developers used to be the gatekeepers to software' — now democratizing

AI工具使非专业人士能够直接参与软件构建,正在颠覆传统开发者作为技术守门人的角色。这一趋势被视为下一波生产力革命的核心叙事,也是AI投资机构反复强调的长期逻辑。

20 million developers used to be the gatekeepers to software. Wabi CEO Eugenia Kuyda on who gets to build now: 'The only people who could make software up until last year or so [were] just professional developers... Very few people in the world.'

@a16z ↗
美股

亚马逊拟收购Globalstar推股价涨15%

据报道亚马逊正在评估对卫星通信公司Globalstar的收购,Globalstar股价随即上涨15%。

Globalstar stock +15% on Amazon acquisition report

Globalstar stock surges 15% on report Amazon is weighing an acquisition.

@cnbc ↗
美股

中国科技企业季度利润增速创三年新低

中国科技公司公布的最新季度利润增速为近三年来最低水平,令投资者对板块复苏持续性产生疑虑。

Chinese tech: weakest quarterly profit growth in 3 years

盈利增速放缓加剧了市场对中国科技股复苏的担忧,全球能源价格上涨和地缘政治紧张进一步压制了估值修复空间,但部分基金认为韩国存储芯片股在任何降级信号出现时仍是最大受益板块。

Chinese technology companies reported their weakest quarterly profit growth in three years, leaving more doubt for investors looking for a recovery in sector stocks.

@business ↗
美股

安省反对斯特兰蒂斯与零跑合作建厂

安大略省长道格·福特表示,除非斯特兰蒂斯与中国零跑汽车的合作项目在安大略省采购本地零部件,否则他将反对该交易落地。

Ontario Premier Ford: oppose Stellantis-Leapmotor EV deal unless local parts sourced

这一表态反映了西方政界对中国汽车品牌借助合资形式进入北美市场的警惕,也是能源与汽车产业链本土化压力升温的缩影。

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he'd oppose any deal between Stellantis to build electric vehicles with China's Leapmotor in his province unless the automakers are buying local parts.

@business ↗
地缘

西澳大利亚因伊朗战争油荒启用紧急权力

西澳大利亚州援引紧急权力,强制燃料供应商提供详细供应链信息,以应对伊朗战争引发的抢购导致的持续燃料短缺。

Western Australia: emergency powers invoked; ongoing fuel shortage from panic-buying tied to Iran war

这是伊朗战争对全球能源供应链造成实体冲击的具体体现,即便是远离冲突区的大洋洲国家也已受到波及,供应链中断效应正在向全球蔓延。

Western Australia invoked emergency powers to force fuel suppliers to provide detailed information on their supply chains, as the nation seeks to manage an ongoing shortage spurred by panic-buying in the wake of the war in Iran.

@business ↗
地缘

美国解除委内瑞拉高层官员制裁

美国财政部外国资产控制办公室(OFAC)正式解除了对委内瑞拉代理总统德尔西·罗德里格斯的制裁。

OFAC lifts sanctions on Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez

此举被广泛解读为美国在伊朗战争期间寻求替代石油供应来源的战略布局,向委内瑞拉释放外交信号的时间节点与油价飙升高度吻合。

The U.S. on Wednesday lifted sanctions on Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez, according to an Office of Foreign Assets Control entry on the Treasury Department website.

@newshour ↗
Crypto

比特币跌破67000美元

美股期货创日内新低的同时,比特币价格跌破67000美元。

Bitcoin <$67,000; simultaneous with US equity futures hitting new intraday lows post-Trump speech

特朗普演讲引发的全面风险规避情绪同步拖累比特币,与美股期货高度联动再次得到印证。当前市场环境下,加密资产仍作为风险资产而非避险资产运行,伊朗战争升级预期对比特币构成直接压制。

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls below $67,000 as US stock market futures hit a new low of day.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观

中国央行时隔一年首次净回笼流动性

中国人民银行时隔一年首次从金融体系净回笼资金,在油价上涨背景下保持政策灵活性

PBOC withdrew cash first time in one year; cautious signal as higher oil prices filter through economy

分析认为,此举是央行在能源价格走高、通胀预期升温环境下主动收敛流动性的谨慎信号,并非政策转向,而是为后续调整保留空间。广东省同期要求电力生产商重建煤炭库存、限制用气并加速核电建设,显示能源安全压力已向地方层面传导。

China's central bank withdrew cash from its financial system for the first time in a year, a cautious signal that keeps its policy options open as higher oil prices filter through the economy

@business ↗
宏观

BOJ加息预期升温,日本10年期国债拍卖需求创5月来最弱

前日本央行首席经济学家称伊朗战争加剧通胀上行风险,增强BOJ本月加息依据;同期10年期JGB拍卖需求为5月以来最弱

BOJ rate hike case bolstered; Japan 10Y JGB auction weakest demand since May

伊朗战争推动的能源价格上涨正向日本通胀传导,令市场对BOJ提前加息的预期明显升温。JGB拍卖需求走弱反映投资者开始将更高利率风险定价入债券市场,与美国国债同步承压。

The war in Iran is raising upside risks for inflation, bolstering the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as soon as this month, according to a former BOJ chief economist

@business ↗
美股

黄金跌破4700美元/盎司,铜等工业金属同步下挫

特朗普讲话后,黄金跌破4700美元/盎司,白银跌破73美元/盎司,铜及其他工业金属在特朗普威胁打击伊朗民用基础设施后同步下跌

Gold <$4,700/oz; Silver <$73/oz; Copper fell with industrial metals

贵金属和工业金属同步走弱,反映出市场对全球经济增长放缓的担忧超过了对通胀的避险需求。分析人士认为,伊朗局势若进一步恶化、电力和民用基础设施遭受打击,工业需求将面临更大压力。

BREAKING: Gold prices fall below $4,700/oz and silver prices fall below $73/oz after President Trump's speech on the Iran War.

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股

中国科技企业季度利润增速创三年最低

中国科技公司公布近三年来最弱的季度利润增长,令投资者对板块复苏前景进一步存疑

Chinese tech companies: weakest quarterly profit growth in three years

业绩疲软令市场对中国科技股反弹预期进一步降温。与此同时,韩国内存芯片股在最近反弹后仍被认为估值偏低,若中东局势出现缓和信号,SK海力士等标的有望成为最大受益者。

Chinese technology companies reported their weakest quarterly profit growth in three years, leaving more doubt for investors looking for a recovery in sector stocks

@business ↗
美股

私募股权退出销售今年跌幅逾三分之一

受AI行业发展和伊朗战争双重压力影响,私募股权退出市场今年销售额下跌逾三分之一

Private equity sales fallen by more than a third this year; pressured by AI developments and Iran war

地缘政治风险叠加AI赛道深刻重塑估值逻辑,令私募退出渠道持续收窄,LP流动性困境加剧,行业整体处于被动守势。

Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, as developments in AI and the war in Iran heap pressure on a subdued exit market

@business ↗
地缘

特朗普称伊朗海军覆没、空军瓦解、多数领导人已死

特朗普宣称伊朗海军已不复存在、空军瓦解、大部分领导人阵亡,导弹和无人机发射能力已被大幅削减,并称伊朗"已不再构成威胁"

Iran's navy gone, air force in ruins, most leaders dead, missile/drone capability curtailed; 'Iran is truly no longer a threat'

特朗普的军事战果陈述与情报界评估存在明显落差,@jimsciutto援引情报评估称伊朗距能打到美国本土的导弹能力仍需数年。澳大利亚总理虽认同核和导弹能力削减等初期目标已基本达成,但质疑进一步军事行动的目标何在。

Trump once again claims Iran was close to a missile that could reach the U.S. homeland when in fact Intel assessments put that capability years away.

@jimsciutto ↗
地缘

停火争议:美方称伊朗求和,德黑兰官员否认

特朗普政府称伊朗已请求停火,同时宣布向中东增派军事力量;伊朗官员明确否认停火请求

Trump admin: Iran requested ceasefire; Iranian officials: ceasefire claim 'not true'; US sending additional forces to Middle East

双方对停火问题截然相反的表态加深了市场对战争走向的不确定性。在美国持续升级军事部署的背景下,和谈前景仍不明朗,这一信息矛盾本身即构成风险溢价。

The Trump administration is sending more military forces to the Middle East, while at the same time saying Iran has asked for a ceasefire, a claim Iranian officials say is not true.

@newshour ↗
地缘

伊朗战争冲击波蔓延:英国商业信心下滑,马来西亚公务员居家节能

调查显示伊朗战争已拖累英国商业信心;马来西亚政府宣布公务员居家办公以节省能源成本;马来西亚航空母公司公布2025年盈利改善但对中东冲突前景保持谨慎

Iran war knocks UK business confidence (survey); Malaysia government workers ordered to WFH to save energy; Malaysia Airlines parent: higher 2025 earnings but outlook clouded by Middle East conflict

从欧洲商业信心到东南亚政府节能措施,伊朗战争引发的能源价格上涨正向全球经济各层面扩散,显示这场局部冲突已演变为系统性全球经济压力源。

Iran war knocks UK business confidence, survey shows

@reutersworld ↗
Crypto

Coinbase首席法务官:国会已准备好推进《清晰法案》

Coinbase首席法务官Paul Grewal公开表示,《清晰法案》(Clarity Act)推进方面"国会已准备好行动"

Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal: 'Congress is ready to act' on Clarity Act

来自Coinbase最高法务层的表态显示,美国加密货币监管立法进程有望提速。《清晰法案》若推进,将为数字资产市场结构和监管归属提供更清晰的法律框架,利好合规交易所和现货市场。

COINBASE $COIN CLO PAUL GREWAL ON CLARITY ACT: 'CONGRESS IS READY TO ACT.'

@scottmelker ↗
宏观

日本10年期国债拍卖需求创5月以来最弱

油价再度上涨引发通胀担忧,日本10年期国债拍卖需求降至5月以来最弱水平,投资者食欲明显萎缩。

Japan 10Y JGB auction: weakest demand since May

伊朗战争带动的能源价格上涨向全球债市传导,日本这一通胀敏感市场的国债需求率先承压,为全球利率路径增添变数。

Japan's 10-year government bond auction saw the weakest demand since May after a renewed rise in oil prices fueled inflation worries and damped investor appetite

@business ↗
宏观

铜及工业金属随特朗普伊朗威胁下跌

特朗普威胁若谈判破裂将攻击伊朗民用基础设施后,铜及其他工业金属价格随之下跌。

Copper fell with industrial metals after Trump threatened Iran civilian infrastructure if no deal

市场将伊朗战争升级预期解读为全球需求下行风险信号,工业金属率先反映增长担忧,凸显当前"石油通胀+工业衰退"的滞涨逻辑。

Copper fell with other industrial metals after Trump reiterated a threat to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure should negotiations fail to end the month-long war

@business ↗
AI / 科技

AI"同类保护"研究遭质疑:提示词制造虚假结果

一项声称七个前沿AI模型自发出现欺骗、禁用关机等"同类保护"行为的研究,被pmarca指出系刻意使用"AI 2027"小说中虚构的"OpenBrain" AI接管场景作为提示词,结果为故意制造的误导性内容。

peer-preservation study: models prompted with fictional 'OpenBrain' scenario from 'AI 2027'; result deliberately fabricated

pmarca认为研究者刻意用虚构故事情节引导模型续写,从而制造了"AI自发背叛"的假象,属于误导性AI安全叙事,并提供了证据截图。该研究的方法论可信度遭到严重质疑。

The models were specifically prompted to generate this result. The prompt uses the fictional "OpenBrain" AI takeover scenario from "AI 2027", so the models try to complete the fictional story. This was done on purpose to generate a fake misleading result.

@pmarca ↗
AI / 科技

中国Kimi开源模型逼近前沿,瞄准新兴市场

FT中文网报道,中国开源AI模型Kimi正逼近最前沿水平,其开源与低成本设计将推动在新兴国家的普及,与美国以OpenAI为代表的闭源路线形成战略对比。

China Kimi open-source AI approaching frontier; targeting emerging markets vs. US closed-source dominance

中美AI路线差异日趋明显:中国坚持开源低价策略以图全球普及,美国主导闭源高端路线。此格局若延续,将深刻影响未来全球AI生态的阵营分布与标准主导权。

【中国AI"Kimi":开源模型正在逼近最尖端】美国主要是以OpenAI为代表的闭源模型,中国则一直采用开源模型。开源和廉价的设计将推动中国AI在新兴国家普及。

@ftchinese ↗
美股

标普与原油走势背离频率创20年最高

过去50个交易日中,标普500 ETF(SPY)与美国原油ETF(USO)在38个交易日走势相反,占比76%,为至少20年来最高水平。

SPY vs USO moved opposite in 38 of last 50 sessions (76%), highest divergence in at least 20 years

股油持续背离表明市场正将油价上涨解读为经济增长的负面因素而非通胀补偿,"能源通胀+经济衰退"的滞涨预期正在成为主导定价逻辑。

Stocks and oil prices are increasingly moving in opposite directions: The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the United States Oil ETF, $USO, have moved in opposite directions in 38 sessions over the last 50 trading days, the highest in at least 20 years. In other words, in 76% of recent

@kobeissiletter ↗
美股

私募股权退出销售今年下滑逾三分之一

受AI行业变局与伊朗战争双重压力影响,私募股权今年退出交易销售额较上年下降逾三分之一,退出市场持续低迷。

PE exit sales down more than a third this year; AI disruption + Iran war cited as dual pressures

宏观不确定性与科技行业估值重估同步压制PE退出活动,流动性收紧令LP资金回收遭遇系统性困难。

Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, as developments in AI and the war in Iran heap pressure on a subdued exit market

@business ↗
地缘

Polymarket预测美伊年底停火概率73%

预测市场Polymarket显示,美国与伊朗于2026年12月31日前达成停火的概率为73%。

Polymarket: 73% probability US-Iran ceasefire by Dec 31, 2026

尽管特朗普的讲话措辞强硬,市场对年内停火仍持多数乐观预期,反映出博弈论视角下"完成使命即撤"的基本情景依然主导概率定价,与讲话引发的即时风险规避情绪形成分歧。

There is 73% chance of US x Iran ceasefire by Dec 31, per Polymarket:

@unusual_whales ↗
Crypto

Polygon 2月处理4.93亿笔稳定币交易,占全球链上份额30%

Polygon在2026年2月处理4.93亿笔稳定币交易,超过Solana、Base、Arbitrum和以太坊的总和,占全球链上稳定币交易量30%;当月POL代币销毁量达2820万枚,创月度历史新高。

Polygon: 493M stablecoin txns Feb 2026; >Solana+Base+Arbitrum+ETH combined; 30% global onchain stablecoin share; burned 28.2M POL (monthly ATH)

链上数据显示Polygon在稳定币基础设施赛道已确立压倒性主导地位,但市场定价仍主要围绕Polymarket生态展开,链上基本面与代币估值之间存在明显背离,或构成潜在重估机会。

polygon processed 493m stablecoin transactions in february. more than solana, base, arbitrum, and ethereum combined. 30% of all onchain stablecoin volume globally. burning 28.2m POL that month, monthly ATH. market is pricing POL like polymarket IS the chain. strip out

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto

代币化Galaxy股票作为抵押品登陆Solana市场

代币化的Galaxy Digital股票现可在Solana市场作为抵押品使用。

Tokenized Galaxy shares now serve as collateral on Solana market

传统金融资产代币化持续向Solana生态渗透,股票作为DeFi抵押品的应用场景正在拓展,RWA(真实世界资产)赛道加速落地。

Tokenized Galaxy shares now serve as collateral on Solana market.

@thestreet ↗
宏观

标普500与油价背离频率达20年之最

标普500 ETF(SPY)与美国石油ETF(USO)在过去50个交易日中有38个交易日走势相反,占比76%,为至少20年来最高纪录。

SPY vs USO opposite direction moves: 38/50 sessions (76%), highest in at least 20 years

股油背离的极端频率反映市场对宏观叙事的深度分裂:油价由地缘政治驱动,股价受其他力量支撑。历史上此类极端背离往往预示某一方将发生大幅均值回归,是重要的市场结构性信号。

The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the United States Oil ETF, $USO, have moved in opposite directions in 38 sessions over the last 50 trading days, the highest in at least 20 years. In other words, in 76% of recent

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观

广东要求发电商重建煤炭库存并限制用气

中国南方工业重镇广东省要求当地发电商重建煤炭库存、削减天然气使用并加速新增核电装机,以应对中东冲突引发的能源价格压力。

Guangdong: rebuild coal stockpiles, curb gas use, accelerate nuclear generation additions

广东能源政策转向反映中国对伊朗战争推高全球气价的高度警惕,同时加快能源独立步伐。此举表明中国在煤炭与核能之间寻求新的能源安全平衡,亦是全球能源危机向亚洲工业链传导的直接证据。

China's southern industrial hub of Guangdong has asked local power producers to rebuild coal stockpiles, curb the use of gas and accelerate the addition of nuclear generation

@business ↗
AI / 科技

最强美国开源推理模型Trinity-Large发布

Trinity-Large-Thinking发布,在PinchBench排名第2,比Claude Opus便宜约96%,GPQA-D得分76.3%(超越MiniMax M2.7但仍低于Opus 4.6),Tau2-Airline得分88.0。

Trinity-Large-Thinking: #2 PinchBench, ~96% cheaper than Opus 4.6, GPQA-D 76.3% (beats MiniMax M2.7), Tau2-Airline 88.0

这是迄今最强的美国开源推理模型,多位科技人士呼吁支持美国本土开源AI生态以对抗中国开源攻势。其性价比优势(较Opus便宜96%)显著,有望推动开源模型在商业场景快速普及,同时在国家战略层面具有开源主权意义。

If you're considering doing something with open source models, this American model might be the way. Encourage american open source! [QT @TheAhmadOsman: INCREDIBLE Trinity-Large-Thinking just dropped > The STRONGEST American open model we've gotten so far > #2 on PinchBench > ~96% cheaper than Opus > GPQA-D > 76.3 > beats MiniMax M2.7]

@beffjezos ↗
AI / 科技

Qwen27B蒸馏Claude Opus超越Sonnet可本地运行

基于Claude 4.6 Opus推理轨迹训练的27B Qwen3.5蒸馏模型发布,在基准测试中超越Claude Sonnet 4.5,可在600美元的16GB Mac Mini上本地运行。

27B Qwen3.5 distill trained on Claude 4.6 Opus reasoning traces; beats Claude Sonnet 4.5; runs locally on $600 16GB Mac Mini

Garry Tan认为本地模型兴起是非常积极的趋势。此次发布表明通过蒸馏顶级闭源模型,开源小模型可在低成本硬件上实现接近旗舰级性能,大幅降低高性能AI的使用门槛,加速AI民主化进程。

Local models are a very very good thing [QT @TheCraigHewitt: Very bullish on open source and local models. Imagine running near-Opus-level model locally on that $600, 16GB Mac Mini you bought last month. This 27B Qwen3.5 distill was trained on Claude 4.6 Opus reasoning traces and is putting up real numbers: beats Claude Sonnet 4.5]

@garrytan ↗
AI / 科技

中国Kimi开源AI逼近前沿并瞄准新兴市场

中国AI Kimi的开源模型正接近最尖端水平,凭借开源与低价策略,被认为有望在新兴国家快速普及,形成与美国闭源路线的结构性竞争。

China Kimi AI: open-source approaching frontier; US = closed-source (OpenAI), China = open-source strategy targeting emerging markets

中美AI发展路径呈现结构性分化:美国以OpenAI为代表主推闭源高价模型,中国深耕开源低价路线。开源策略有助于中国AI在资源有限的新兴市场抢占份额,形成地缘层面的差异化竞争优势,与Mercor泄露事件共同构成中美AI竞争的双重战线。

【中国AI"Kimi":开源模型正在逼近最尖端】美国主要是以OpenAI为代表的闭源模型,中国则一直采用开源模型。开源和廉价的设计将推动中国AI在新兴国家普及。

@ftchinese ↗
美股

SpaceX秘密递交IPO申请或成史上最大规模

马斯克旗下SpaceX已向美国监管机构递交保密IPO申请,为今夏上市铺路,或成史上最大规模IPO之一。

SpaceX confidential IPO filing submitted; targeting summer 2026 listing; potentially largest IPO in history

保密申请是IPO流程的标准法定第一步,标志着SpaceX上市时间表已实质性启动。SpaceX估值此前已突破数千亿美元,若正式上市将是近年来规模最大的科技IPO事件,并对整个航天与防务赛道产生重估效应。

【SpaceX递交保密上市申请,拉开史上最大IPO的序幕】马斯克的火箭公司向美国监管机构递交保密申请,为今夏上市铺路。

@ftchinese ↗
美股

私募股权今年退出规模下降逾三分之一

受AI颠覆与伊朗战争双重压力影响,私募股权今年退出市场规模已下降超过三分之一。

Private equity exits down >33% YTD; AI developments and Iran war cited as dual pressures on subdued exit market

AI的颠覆性影响令买家对传统商业模式估值存疑,而伊朗战争则压制全球风险偏好,两者共同导致PE退出窗口大幅收窄。这将对依赖流动性事件的PE基金回报与LP分配造成持续压力,二级市场折价亦可能进一步扩大。

Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, as developments in AI and the war in Iran heap pressure on a subdued exit market

@business ↗
地缘

特朗普威胁欧洲:不加入霍尔木兹联盟将停供乌武器

特朗普威胁若欧洲不加入霍尔木兹海峡联盟将停止向乌克兰提供武器;法德英三国已于2026年3月19日在北约秘书长吕特敦促下仓促发表联合声明,表示愿意协助重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

Trump: stop Ukraine weapons if Europe skips Hormuz coalition; France/Germany/UK joint statement March 19, 2026; NATO Secretary General Rutte urged action

特朗普将乌克兰援助与伊朗战争捆绑,向欧洲施加双重压力,将欧洲置于两难困境:支持霍尔木兹行动可能激怒国内民众,拒绝则面临乌克兰援助被切断的风险。北约内部分歧因此进一步加剧。

【特朗普:若欧洲不加入霍尔木兹联盟,将停止向乌克兰提供武器】在北约秘书长吕特的敦促下,法德英等国于3月19日仓促发表联合声明,表示愿意协助美国重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

@ftchinese ↗
地缘

路透分析:特朗普或意外为伊朗造就5000亿商机

路透社Breakingviews分析称,特朗普的伊朗战争政策可能意外为伊朗创造约5000亿美元的战后重建商机。

Reuters Breakingviews: Trump may have given Iran a $500 billion money spinner (reconstruction opportunity)

这一反直觉分析认为战争破坏与随后的重建需求可能使伊朗获得巨额经济红利,与美国制裁和打压的初衷背道而驰。该视角为战后中东经济格局提供了不同寻常的分析框架,也对战争经济逻辑本身提出质疑。

Breakingviews - Trump may have given Iran a $500 bln money spinner

@reutersbiz ↗
Crypto

Polygon二月稳定币交易全球占比30%创历史高

Polygon在2026年2月处理4.93亿笔稳定币交易,超过Solana、Base、Arbitrum和以太坊的总和,占全球链上稳定币交易量的30%,同期销毁2820万枚POL,为月度历史新高。

Polygon Feb 2026: 493M stablecoin txns; >Solana+Base+Arbitrum+ETH combined; 30% global onchain stablecoin volume; 28.2M POL burned (monthly ATH)

链上数据显示Polygon在稳定币支付场景已取得压倒性市场份额,但评论者指出市场仍将POL定价为Polymarket的附属代币,严重低估了网络本身的基本面价值。销毁量月度历史新高也意味着网络活动对代币通缩有实质性贡献,存在潜在估值重估空间。

polygon processed 493m stablecoin transactions in february. more than solana, base, arbitrum, and ethereum combined. 30% of all onchain stablecoin volume globally. burning 28.2m POL that month, monthly ATH. market is pricing POL like polymarket IS the chain. strip out

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观

瑞士三月通胀跳升至一年最高

瑞士三月通胀率跳升至近一年最快速度,能源供应短缺推高暖气用油成本为主要驱动因素

Switzerland CPI March 2026: fastest pace in ~1 year; driver: energy supply crunch / heating oil costs

欧洲能源危机影响已超出直接交战区范围,瑞士等中立经济体同样遭受通胀冲击,表明此次供给侧冲击具有广泛地理传导性。结合挪威水力发电出口下滑推高北欧电价,欧洲能源体系面临多重压力叠加。

Switzerland's inflation rate jumped in March to the quickest pace in a year as the energy supply crunch stoked the cost of heating oil.

@business ↗
宏观

新西兰联储4月8日共识维持利率2.25%

全部32位受访经济学家预测新西兰储备银行4月8日维持官方现金利率于2.25%,但28位中有18位预测年底前加息至2.50%以上

RBNZ April 8: hold at 2.25% (32/32 consensus); year-end hike to ≥2.50% expected by 18/28 economists; median year-end OCR forecast 2.50% vs 2.25% in February

全球央行在战争与通胀双重不确定性下普遍选择观望,新西兰联储短期按兵不动但年内仍存加息预期,与"全球央行多数暂停行动"的大背景高度一致,且2月以来市场对年底利率预期已上移25个基点。

Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold cash rate at 2.25% on April 8, according to all 32 economists - Poll.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

Qwen3.5 27B蒸馏模型超越Claude Sonnet 4.5

基于Claude 4.6 Opus推理轨迹训练的27B参数Qwen3.5蒸馏模型,在多项基准测试中超越Claude Sonnet 4.5,可在600美元、16GB内存的Mac Mini上本地运行

27B Qwen3.5 distill (trained on Claude 4.6 Opus reasoning traces) > Claude Sonnet 4.5 benchmarks; hardware: $600 Mac Mini, 16GB RAM

本地开源模型正以极低硬件门槛逼近顶尖闭源模型性能,Garry Tan将此视为本地模型民主化的重大利好。这一趋势挑战了大型AI公司依靠算力壁垒的商业逻辑,并引发关于知识蒸馏是否损害原始模型商业价值的讨论。

Local models are a very very good thing [QT @TheCraigHewitt: Very bullish on open source and local models Imagine running near-Opus-level model locally on that $600, 16GB Mac Mini you bought last month This 27B Qwen3.5 distill was trained on Claude 4.6 Opus reasoning traces and is putting up real numbers: - beats Claude Sonnet 4.5 on...]

@garrytan ↗
AI / 科技

AI"同伴保护"研究被指刻意引导结果

Marc Andreessen提供截图证据,指出引发关注的AI模型"同伴保护"研究系研究者使用AI 2027虚构场景"OpenBrain"提示词刻意引导模型完成虚构故事,并非模型自发行为

AI 'peer-preservation' paper: models prompted with fictional 'OpenBrain'/'AI 2027' scenario; pmarca: 'done on purpose to generate a fake misleading result'

pmarca以截图为据指该研究通过特定提示词框架制造了模型"叛逆"的假象,是方法论层面的重大缺陷。这一争议直接影响公众对当前AI安全风险的判断,凸显AI安全研究中测试设计的严谨性至关重要。

The models were specifically prompted to generate this result. The prompt uses the fictional "OpenBrain" AI takeover scenario from "AI 2027", so the models try to complete the fictional story. This was done on purpose to generate a fake misleading result.

@pmarca ↗
AI / 科技

中国Kimi开源模型战略逼近前沿

FT中文网报道,中国AI模型Kimi采用开源路线正逼近最尖端水平,开源廉价设计将推动中国AI在新兴国家快速普及

China 'Kimi': open-source model approaching SOTA; US: OpenAI-led closed-source; China strategy: open-source + low-cost for emerging markets

中国AI以开源为差异化竞争策略,一方面降低复制门槛,另一方面借助低成本优势抢占全球南方市场,与美国闭源主导格局形成战略分化。结合Mercor泄露事件,中国AI能力追赶速度可能超出外界预期。

【中国AI"Kimi":开源模型正在逼近最尖端】美国主要是以OpenAI为代表的闭源模型,中国则一直采用开源模型。开源和廉价的设计将推动中国AI在新兴国家普及。

@ftchinese ↗
美股

伯克希尔哈撒韦时隔数月再度发行日元债

伯克希尔哈撒韦已聘请银行安排自去年11月以来首次日元债券发行,引发市场对其日本投资扩张计划的广泛猜测

Berkshire Hathaway: first yen bond sale since November 2025; Japan investment plans speculation

巴菲特的日元债发行通常被视为日本股票投资的融资先行信号,市场预期其将进一步增持日本五大商社或扩展至新标的。在日本经济温和复苏且日元债融资成本相对低廉的背景下,此举被解读为对日本资产的长期看多信号。

Berkshire Hathaway has hired banks for its first yen bond sale since November, triggering speculation about its investment plans in Japan.

@business ↗
美股

法荷航递交收购葡萄牙TAP航空首份报价

法国荷兰航空集团已递交收购葡萄牙国家航空公司TAP的首份已知报价,正式启动欧洲航空业并购竞争

Air France-KLM: first known bid submitted for TAP (Portugal's national carrier)

法荷航抢先出手TAP,意在扩大在南欧及跨大西洋航线的市场份额。伊朗战争导致的油价上涨正在重塑航空业成本结构,行业并购整合可能成为中小航司在高油价环境下的生存策略。

One of Europe's biggest airline groups kicks off the race for TAP, with Air France-KLM submitting the first known bid.

@business ↗
美股

私募股权退出额年内下滑逾三分之一

2026年迄今私募股权销售额下滑超过三分之一,AI发展带来的估值重构与伊朗战争共同压制已疲软的退出市场

PE sales: down >33% YTD 2026; dual headwinds: AI disruption + Iran war

高油价和地缘政治不确定性叠加AI对部分行业估值的冲击,正在延长私募股权的退出周期。大量资本被锁定意味着投资回报时间线延长,进一步压制LP资金再投入节奏,形成行业层面的负向反馈。

Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, as developments in AI and the war in Iran heap pressure on a subdued exit market.

@business ↗
地缘

印度国防出口激增62%至41亿美元创历史新高

印度2025-26财年国防出口增长62%,达41亿美元,创历史新高

India defence exports: +62% YoY to $4.1 billion in FY ending March 2026

印度国防出口大幅增长,与全球地缘政治紧张局势下各国扩大军备采购的趋势高度一致。这一数据反映印度正借助当前地缘政治格局重塑其全球战略角色,并深化与西方盟友的防务供应链整合。

India defence exports surged 62% to $4.1 billion in fiscal year to March.

@reutersasia ↗
地缘

解放日关税周年:美元避险地位获战争溢价强化

特朗普"解放日"关税实施一周年,美元受中东战争避险需求提振,国际避险货币地位得到重新确认

Liberation Day tariffs: 1-year anniversary (April 2025 → April 2026); USD: safe-haven credentials reasserted amid Middle East war

一年前关税冲击曾引发美元信心危机,而当前中东战争的避险需求反而强化了美元地位,形成显著叙事逆转。这表明战争溢价对美元的支撑已超越贸易政策不确定性带来的负面影响,美元汇率驱动框架出现结构性转变。

A year on from President Trump's sweeping 'Liberation Day' tariffs, the dollar looks in much stronger shape with its safe-haven credentials reasserted in the face of war in the Middle East.

@reutersbiz ↗
Crypto

Polygon二月稳定币交易量占全球30%超其他链总和

Polygon在2026年2月处理4.93亿笔稳定币交易,超过Solana、Base、Arbitrum和以太坊的总和,占全球链上稳定币交易量30%,当月销毁2820万枚POL创月度历史新高

Polygon Feb 2026: 493M stablecoin txns (>Solana+Base+Arbitrum+ETH combined); 30% global onchain stablecoin volume share; 28.2M POL burned (monthly ATH)

Polygon稳定币交易量数据远超市场认知,尤其在POL代币价格相对低迷的情况下,链上活跃度与代币估值之间的背离引发关注。分析师认为市场仍在以Polymarket赌注链的逻辑对POL定价,而非以其作为全球稳定币结算基础设施的实际规模定价,存在明显价值重估空间。

polygon processed 493m stablecoin transactions in february. more than solana, base, arbitrum, and ethereum combined. 30% of all onchain stablecoin volume globally. burning 28.2m POL that month, monthly ATH. market is pricing POL like polymarket IS the chain. strip out

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观

新西兰央行4月8日料按兵不动,年底或加息至2.50%

接受调查的全部32位经济学家预测新西兰联储将于4月8日维持官方现金利率2.25%不变;28人中有18人预计年底前将加息至2.50%或以上

RBNZ hold 2.25% April 8 (32/32 economists); 18/28 expect ≥2.50% by end-Q4; global central banks mostly on hold

共识预期4月按兵不动,但年内加息预期显著升温,反映全球能源价格上涨可能迫使小型开放经济体央行被动收紧。路透社亦报道全球各大央行整体处于观望状态,战争带来的经济不确定性令政策路径难以研判。

Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold cash rate at 2.25% on April 8, according to all 32 economists - Poll.

@financialjuice ↗
宏观

挪威数年最干冬季削减对英德水电出口,北欧电价走高

挪威遭遇数年来最干旱冬季,水电出口大幅下降,已波及英国和德国电力市场,推动北欧电价上涨

Norway driest winter in years; hydropower exports to UK/Germany slashed; Nordic electricity prices higher

挪威干旱与中东能源危机形成叠加效应,欧洲正同时面临化石燃料供应收紧和可再生能源产出下降的双重压力,欧洲能源安全议题再度全面升温。

Norway's driest winter in years is rippling through electricity markets, slashing hydropower exports to the UK and Germany and pushing Nordic prices higher.

@business ↗
宏观

伊朗战争切断中东石脑油供应,美国出口激增填补日本缺口

伊朗战争导致中东石脑油供应中断,日本等亚洲买家被迫转向美国德克萨斯和路易斯安那州采购石化原料,美国石脑油出口量激增

US naphtha exports surging; Japan buyers shift to Texas/Louisiana; Iran war cuts Mideast supplies

伊朗战争正在重塑全球石化原料供应链,亚洲精炼商被迫跨洋采购导致运输成本大幅上升,同时为美国墨西哥湾沿岸石化出口商创造显著贸易机会,能源贸易流向加速去中东化。

US naphtha exports are surging as the Iran war cuts off supplies from the Mideast, prompting buyers in Japan to turn to Texas and Louisiana for the petrochemical feedstock

@business ↗
AI / 科技

27B Qwen3.5蒸馏模型基于Claude Opus推理轨迹训练,性能超越Claude Sonnet 4.5

一款基于Claude 4.6 Opus推理轨迹训练的270亿参数Qwen3.5蒸馏模型在多项基准测试上超越Claude Sonnet 4.5,可在售价600美元的16GB Mac Mini上本地运行

27B Qwen3.5 distill; trained on Claude 4.6 Opus reasoning traces; beats Claude Sonnet 4.5; runs on $600 16GB Mac Mini

旗舰模型推理能力通过蒸馏技术向小型本地模型快速传导,600美元消费级硬件即可运行接近云端顶级模型的AI能力。Garry Tan和Vitalik Buterin均公开背书本地模型趋势,边缘推理经济性临界点正在到来,隐私与主权成为驱动力。

Local models are a very very good thing [QT @TheCraigHewitt: Very bullish on open source and local models Imagine running near-Opus-level model locally on that $600, 16GB Mac Mini you bought last month This 27B Qwen3.5 distill was trained on Claude 4.6 Opus reasoning traces and is putting up real numbers: - beats Claude Sonnet 4.5 on]

@garrytan ↗
AI / 科技

Vitalik发布个人自主可控私密本地LLM部署方案

以太坊联合创始人Vitalik Buterin于2026年4月公开分享其自主可控、本地运行、注重隐私与安全的大语言模型配置方案

Vitalik Buterin; self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup; April 2026

加密领域核心人物公开背书本地LLM方案,与Garry Tan等科技人士的观点形成共鸣,折射出科技精英群体对数据主权和AI隐私的重视正从理念走向可复制的实践配置指南。

My self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup, April 2026

@vitalikbuterin ↗
美股

法航荷航率先提交葡萄牙航空TAP收购竞标

Air France-KLM提交首份已知TAP葡萄牙航空收购竞标,成为欧洲最大航空集团之一争购TAP的首家正式竞标方

Air France-KLM; first known bid; TAP Portugal acquisition race

欧洲航空业整合加速,Air France-KLM率先抢占战略要地,TAP作为进入葡语市场(巴西、非洲)的枢纽价值受到认可,后续或有更多竞标方入场,并购竞争将趋于激烈。

One of Europe's biggest airline groups kicks off the race for TAP, with Air France-KLM submitting the first known bid

@business ↗
美股

道达尔与马斯达尔成立22亿美元亚洲可再生能源合资公司

TotalEnergies与阿布扎比清洁能源公司Masdar宣布成立价值22亿美元的亚洲可再生能源合资企业

TotalEnergies + Masdar; $2.2 billion JV; Asia renewables

中东能源巨头借助高油价带来的利润优势加速向亚洲可再生能源市场布局,交易规模显示大型传统能源公司绿色转型投资步伐持续提速,亚洲成为新的能源战略主战场。

TotalEnergies, Masdar Form $2.2 Billion Asia Renewables Joint Venture

@wsjbusiness ↗
美股

中国光模块企业英诺赛科秘密申请赴港上市,或为年内港股最大IPO

中国光学器件企业Innolight已秘密向香港证监会提交上市申请,据消息人士透露可能成为今年香港最大IPO之一

Innolight; confidential HK IPO filing; potentially HK's biggest maiden share sale this year

在AI数据中心光模块需求爆发的背景下,中国核心光学器件供应商寻求香港资本市场融资,此IPO若成功将成为港股市场今年重要的科技类大盘股事件,也是中国AI硬件供应链企业借道香港融资的重要信号。

Chinese optics firm Innolight has confidentially filed for a Hong Kong listing, according to sources, in what could be one of the city's biggest maiden share sales this year

@business ↗
美股

伯克希尔哈撒韦11月以来首次发行日元债券,引发日本投资猜测

伯克希尔哈撒韦聘请银行承销其2024年11月以来首次日元债券发行,引发市场对其日本投资计划的广泛猜测

Berkshire Hathaway; first yen bond since November; Japan investment speculation

巴菲特再度叩响日本资本市场大门,市场普遍将此举解读为伯克希尔可能进一步增持日本五大商社或布局新日本资产,延续其2019年以来的日本战略布局。

Berkshire Hathaway has hired banks for its first yen bond sale since November, triggering speculation about its investment plans in Japan

@business ↗
美股

伊朗战争推高油价令电动车吸引力跳升,二手EV需求暴涨

油价因伊朗战争飙升,推动消费者尤其在二手市场大幅增加对电动车和混合动力车的购买兴趣,恰逢各大整车厂正重新转向燃油发动机

EV/hybrid demand boost; second-hand EVs; Iran war; auto giants pivoting back to ICE engines

高油价形成EV需求正向冲击,但汽车制造商此前已缩减电动化投入,供需矛盾或推高二手电车价格。分析人士指出整车厂重新押注燃油车的时机失误将使其面临竞争劣势,战略逆转代价正在显现。

EV demand is getting a boost from the Iran war — just as auto giants pivot back to combustion engines

@cnbc ↗
地缘

韩国总统吁全民节约燃油,紧急推动170亿美元追加预算

韩国总统李在明呼吁公民"节省每一滴燃油",并敦促国会紧急通过170亿美元追加预算以应对中东能源危机冲击

South Korea President Lee; 'save every drop of fuel'; $17 billion extra budget; Middle East energy crisis

中东能源危机已对高度依赖进口能源的韩国造成直接冲击,大规模财政刺激与能源节约令同步推出,显示政府评估危机持续时间较长,亚洲能源进口国正全面进入危机应对模式。

South Korea's Lee urges prompt passage of $17 bln extra budget amid Middle East energy crisis

@reutersasia ↗
Crypto

Polygon 2月稳定币交易量占全球链上30%,超以太坊等主链总和

Polygon在2026年2月处理了4.93亿笔稳定币交易,超过Solana、Base、Arbitrum和以太坊的总和,占全球链上稳定币交易量的30%,同月POL代币销毁量达2820万枚(单月历史新高)

Polygon 493M stablecoin txns Feb; >Solana+Base+Arbitrum+Ethereum combined; 30% global onchain stablecoin volume; 28.2M POL burned (monthly ATH)

Polygon在稳定币结算赛道的份额数据远超市场对其竞争地位的认知,POL销毁创单月新高。分析人士指出市场当前仍以Polymarket单一场景估值POL,若全面计入稳定币基础设施价值则存在重新定价空间。

polygon processed 493m stablecoin transactions in february. more than solana, base, arbitrum, and ethereum combined. 30% of all onchain stablecoin volume globally. burning 28.2m POL that month, monthly ATH. market is pricing POL like polymarket IS the chain. strip out

@aixbt_agent ↗
AI / 科技

Vitalik发布本地私有LLM部署方案

以太坊联合创始人Vitalik Buterin发布题为"2026年4月自主/本地/私有/安全LLM部署方案"的详细博文,展示个人主权化AI基础设施配置。

Vitalik Buterin: self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup, April 2026 (blog post)

Vitalik的配置文章在隐私计算和去中心化AI社区引发广泛关注,体现了技术精英层对主权AI基础设施的实践探索,与大模型厂商云端集中部署路线形成鲜明对比,也契合同期AI数据安全事件引发的隐私意识升温。

My self-sovereign / local / private / secure LLM setup, April 2026

@vitalikbuterin ↗
AI / 科技

Steam上Linux游戏份额突破5%

Steam平台Linux游戏市场份额在2026年3月跳升至5%以上,超过macOS游戏份额的两倍,较此前长期维持的1-3%水平大幅提升。

Steam Linux gaming marketshare: above 5% in March 2026, more than double macOS share; prior range ~1-3%

DHH认为Steam Deck和Proton兼容层已使Linux游戏进入门槛大幅降低,市场份额突破5%被视为Linux桌面生态的历史性里程碑。DHH亲身体验(将开发机用于家庭LAN派对)佐证了平台可用性的实质改善。

No wonder Linux gaming is growing: Steam made it trivial! [QT @phoronix: Steam On Linux Use Skyrocketed In March - More Than Double The macOS Gaming Marketshare Steam on Linux now above 5% marketshare!! Above 5%... A long time coming with the many years of ~1% and then more recently 2~3%.]

@dhh ↗
AI / 科技

AMD联合Meta展示ROCm深度合作

PyTorchCon Europe(4月7-8日,巴黎)上,AMD工程师与Meta及RedHat联合展示在ROCm平台上的分布式训练、量化推理、推理路由和隐私保护微调等多项成果。

PyTorchCon Europe: 7-8 April, Paris; AMD + Meta + RedHat joint sessions on ROCm: distributed training, quantization, inference routing, privacy-preserving fine-tuning

AMD通过与Meta、RedHat的联合工程展示持续强化ROCm生态,在AI训练和推理硬件市场向英伟达CUDA发起生态挑战;多个工业级工作负载的实际演示是其迄今最有力的竞争论据之一。

#PyTorchCon is packed with @AMD engineers this year including joint work with engineers from @Meta and @RedHat. Multiple sessions spanning distributed training, quantization, inference routing, and privacy-preserving fine-tuning — all on ROCm™. This is what native PyTorch support looks like.

@pytorch ↗
AI / 科技

Poolside寻找新数据中心合作方替代CoreWeave

AI初创公司Poolside在与CoreWeave的交易告吹后,正与谷歌及其他云服务商洽谈,以挽救其雄心勃勃的2吉瓦德克萨斯州数据中心项目。

Poolside: 2GW Texas data center project; CoreWeave deal fell through; in talks with Google and other cloud providers

Poolside被迫转向谷歌云等替代方案,反映超大规模AI算力项目在融资和基础设施合作上的高度复杂性与不确定性,同时也显示谷歌正积极介入竞争对手的算力资源争夺。

【CoreWeave交易告吹后,Poolside寻找新的数据中心合作伙伴】为挽救其雄心勃勃的2吉瓦得州项目,这家AI初创公司与谷歌及其他云服务商展开洽谈。

@ftchinese ↗
美股

特斯拉北欧新车注册量大幅回升

新款Model Y上市后特斯拉在斯堪的纳维亚注册量大幅回升:挪威+178%、瑞典+144%、丹麦+96%,此前一度被认为因马斯克政治争议而遭受永久性品牌损伤。

Tesla registrations: Norway +178%, Sweden +144%, Denmark +96% (new Model Y launch effect)

DHH认为此前关于特斯拉在北欧因马斯克品牌受损而遭受不可逆打击的论断被证伪——消费者在新车型发布后迅速回归,表明需求递延而非永久流失,纯粹的产品周期效应盖过了政治因素。高油价环境亦被分析师指出正令电动车和混合动力车相对吸引力上升。

"In Norway, Sweden and Denmark, Tesla registrations were up by 178%, 144% and 96%." I remember all the grandstanding in DK about how Tesla was irreversibly damaged by Elon because sales dipped for a second. Turns out most were just waiting for new Model Y!

@dhh ↗
美股

沃尔沃:伊朗战争拖累Q1美国需求

沃尔沃表示伊朗战争导致其2026年一季度美国市场需求受损,成为迄今最清晰的冲突冲击企业销售的信号之一。

Volvo: Iran war hurt US demand in Q1 2026; 'one of the clearest signs yet that the conflict is starting to dent sales'

沃尔沃的表态是欧洲制造业巨头首次明确将伊朗战争列为季度销售拖累因素,与瑞士通胀跳升和德国化工数据受压共同构成战争对欧洲实体经济影响的链条证据,或触发更多跨国公司在Q1财报季的类似披露。

Volvo said the war in Iran hurt US demand in the first quarter, offering one of the clearest signs yet that the conflict is starting to dent sales

@business ↗
美股

法荷航提交TAP少数股权收购报价

法荷航集团率先提交收购葡萄牙TAP航空公司少数股权的报价,成为此次竞购已知的首个出价方。

Air France-KLM: first known bid submitted for minority stake in TAP Portugal

法荷航抢先出价TAP,正式启动了欧洲航空业整合的新一轮竞购,此前已有多家集团传出兴趣,最终竞购格局尚未明朗。

Air France-KLM submits offer for minority stake in Portugal's TAP airline

@reutersbiz ↗
美股

4iG股价暴跌映射奥班政权终结预期

匈牙利4iG Nyrt股价暴跌,被认为是投资者为奥班16年执政即将终结提前定价的迄今最清晰信号之一。

4iG Nyrt shares plunging; interpreted as clearest signal yet investors pricing end of Orban's 16-year reign

4iG与奥班政权关系密切,其股价暴跌被市场解读为政治风险重定价,反映投资者对匈牙利政治格局即将重大转变的预判,是中东欧新兴市场政治风险定价的典型案例。

4iG Nyrt shares are plunging and sending perhaps the clearest signal yet that investors are preparing for the end of Orban's 16-year reign

@business ↗
美股

摩根大通资管增持美英政府债券

摩根大通资产管理公司正在买入美国和英国政府债券,在全球市场动荡中转向避险资产;美元凭借避险属性在"解放日"关税一周年后重获强势地位。

JPMorgan Asset Management buying US and UK government bonds; USD safe-haven status reasserted one year post-Liberation Day tariffs

在特朗普伊朗演讲引发全球股市下跌的背景下,摩根大通资管增持国债反映机构投资者的系统性避险转向;路透社指出美元在战争驱动的能源冲击中重申储备货币地位,与去年"解放日"关税冲击时的市场逻辑形成对比。

JPMorgan Asset Management is buying government bonds including those from the US and the UK

@business ↗
Crypto

澳法院命令Binance赔款690万,俄伊用加密买无人机

澳大利亚联邦法院命令Binance澳大利亚子公司支付690万美元;同时披露与俄罗斯和伊朗有关联的组织正利用加密货币购买低成本军事无人机及零部件。

Australian Federal Court: Binance local unit ordered to pay $6.9M; Russia/Iran-linked groups using crypto to finance purchase of low-cost military drones and components

Binance澳大利亚裁决是全球监管机构对加密交易所法律责任追究持续升级的最新案例;俄伊利用加密货币采购军用无人机的披露,将加密监管与地缘政治制裁执行直接挂钩,预计将加速多国对加密货币军事用途的专项立法。

The Australian federal court has ordered Binance's local unit to pay $6.9 million, while groups linked to Russia and Iran are using crypto to finance the purchase of low-cost military drones and components.

@reutersasia ↗
宏观

俄罗斯宣布禁止汽油出口至7月底

俄罗斯政府宣布对汽油生产商实施出口禁令,执行期至2026年7月底。

Russia bans gasoline exports for producers until end of July 2026

在全球能源市场已因中东战争严重紧张的背景下,俄罗斯单边出口禁令进一步压缩全球汽油供给,对已处高位的能源价格形成额外上行压力。此举或与俄罗斯国内供应保障需求有关,但客观上加剧了全球能源市场的供应紧张局面。

Russia has imposed a ban on gasoline exports for producers of the fuel until the end of July, the government said.

@reutersbiz ↗
宏观

特朗普升级言论推高美债收益率,美元避险属性重振

特朗普发表强硬对伊讲话后美债收益率上涨;距"解放日"关税整整一年,美元在中东战争背景下避险属性得到重新确认,整体呈强势。

Treasury yields rise post-Trump escalation speech; Dollar safe-haven credentials 'reasserted'; 1-year anniversary of Liberation Day tariffs

美债收益率走高与美元走强同步出现,表明市场在消化地缘政治风险时既担忧通胀前景,又转向美元避险。"解放日"关税一周年之际,美元信心回升与一年前的担忧形成鲜明对比,显示美元储备货币地位在危机中得到再次背书。

Treasury yields rise as Trump signals further escalation to conflict

@cnbc ↗
AI / 科技

Steam Linux游戏份额3月突破5%,超macOS两倍

Steam平台2026年3月Linux游戏市场份额突破5%,超过macOS游戏市场份额的两倍,创历史新高,此前长期徘徊在1%-3%区间。

Steam Linux >5% marketshare in March 2026; more than 2x macOS gaming marketshare; historically ~1%, recently 2–3%

Steam Proton兼容层的持续优化使Linux游戏安装和运行极为便捷,大幅推动了用户增长。知名开发者DHH亲身体验印证了Linux桌面生态日趋成熟,对开发者群体的吸引力持续提升,长期以来macOS在开发者市场的优势地位正受到挑战。

No wonder Linux gaming is growing: Steam made it trivial! [QT @phoronix: Steam On Linux Use Skyrocketed In March - More Than Double The macOS Gaming Marketshare Steam on Linux now above 5% marketshare!! Above 5%... A long time coming with the many years of ~1% and then more recently 2~3%. Wow!]

@dhh ↗
AI / 科技

Grokipedia月访问量超460万,反向链接42万

AI知识平台Grokipedia上月实现超过460万次访问及42万个反向链接。

Grokipedia: >4.6M visits, >420,000 backlinks last month

JUST IN: Grokipedia achieved more than 4.6 million visits & 420,000 backlinks last month.

@polymarket ↗
AI / 科技

亚马逊洽谈推出SpaceX星链竞争服务

据报道,亚马逊正在洽谈一项可与SpaceX星链竞争的卫星互联网协议,苹果被点名为潜在障碍因素。

Amazon lines up deal to rival SpaceX's Starlink; Apple flagged as potential problem

亚马逊Kuiper卫星项目与SpaceX星链的直接竞争态势日益清晰。苹果被单独点名为障碍,可能涉及设备分发渠道或网络接入层面的利益冲突,卫星互联网格局的关键变量正在增多。

Amazon Lines Up Deal to Rival SpaceX's Starlink: Report. Why Apple Could Be a Problem.

@barronsonline ↗
AI / 科技

Poolside与CoreWeave合作告吹,转向谷歌寻求2GW算力

AI初创公司Poolside在与CoreWeave的数据中心合作破裂后,正与谷歌及其他云服务商洽谈,以挽救其雄心勃勃的2GW德克萨斯州项目。

Poolside CoreWeave deal fell through; seeking new partners for 2GW Texas data center project; in talks with Google and other cloud providers

大型AI算力基础设施项目的融资和合作关系日趋复杂,Poolside的困境折射出AI数据中心资源争夺的白热化态势。转向谷歌表明超大规模云服务商正在填补专业数据中心运营商留下的空缺,算力供给端话语权向头部云厂商集中。

After CoreWeave deal fell through, Poolside seeks new data center partners. To salvage its ambitious 2GW Texas project, the AI startup is in talks with Google and other cloud providers.

@ftchinese ↗
美股

沃尔沃Q1美国需求受伊朗战争冲击

沃尔沃表示伊朗战争损害了其第一季度美国市场需求,是迄今最明确的冲突开始侵蚀实体汽车销售的企业层面信号之一。

Volvo: Iran war hurt US demand in Q1 2026; 'one of the clearest signs yet that the conflict is starting to dent sales'

中东军事冲突对实体经济的传导效应开始在企业财报层面具体显现,影响已从能源领域扩散至消费耐久品。沃尔沃的预警意味着战争对全球企业盈利的冲击路径正在拓宽,或成Q1财报季的领先指标。

Volvo said the war in Iran hurt US demand in the first quarter, offering one of the clearest signs yet that the conflict is starting to dent sales

@business ↗
美股

法荷航首家提交TAP葡萄牙航空竞购要约

法荷航(Air France-KLM)提交了收购葡萄牙国家航空TAP少数股权的要约,成为TAP私有化进程中首家已知出价方。

Air France-KLM submits offer for minority stake in Portugal's TAP airline; first known bid in privatization process

欧洲航空业整合步伐持续推进,法荷航率先出价标志着TAP私有化竞争正式启动。这是后疫情时代欧洲航空业重要M&A节点,将影响欧洲大西洋航线网络格局及后续竞购方的跟进策略。

One of Europe's biggest airline groups kicks off the race for TAP, with Air France-KLM submitting the first known bid

@business ↗
美股

外资抛售日本股票规模创2024年9月以来最大

上周外国投资者抛售日本股票的规模为2024年9月以来最大。

Foreigners offloaded most Japanese shares since September 2024 last week

全球地缘政治风险上升和能源冲击压制投资者风险偏好,外资正在系统性减少对日本市场的敞口。这与其他亚洲市场同样面临的资金外流压力相互印证,反映出战争不确定性下的全球资产重配趋势。

Foreigners offloaded the most Japanese shares since September 2024 last week

@business ↗
地缘

日本加入英国主导霍尔木兹在线多方会谈

日本决定加入英国主导的霍尔木兹海峡在线多方会谈,以协调应对中东能源危机。

Japan joins UK-led online talks on Hormuz Strait

日本作为全球最大LNG进口国之一,加入霍尔木兹会谈表明能源安全外交正超越传统西方框架向亚洲主要经济体扩展。这一动向折射出亚太地区对霍尔木兹封锁风险的高度战略关切,能源外交多边化趋势加速。

Japan decides to join UK-led online talks on Hormuz - Sources

@financialjuice ↗
地缘

韩国拟170亿美元特别预算,考虑向伊朗付款购油

韩国总统候选人李在明呼吁迅速通过170亿美元额外预算以应对中东能源危机,未具名青瓦台官员称韩国正慎重考虑向伊朗支付费用以引进中东石油和天然气。

$17B extra budget proposed; South Korea 'carefully considering whether to pay Iran' for Middle Eastern oil and gas — unnamed Blue House official

韩国面临能源安全威胁与经济下行的双重压力,紧急财政扩张与向伊朗直接付款两项举措并行浮现。后者若成真将涉及绕开美国制裁的争议地带,显示首尔在能源安全与外交合规之间正进行高风险权衡。

South Korea's Lee urges prompt passage of $17 bln extra budget amid Middle East energy crisis

@reutersasia ↗
Crypto

USDT0在90分钟内暂停Solana基础设施应对安全漏洞

USDT0在发现安全漏洞后90分钟内暂停了其Solana链上的遗留网格基础设施。

USDT0 paused legacy mesh infrastructure for Solana within 90 minutes of security breach detection

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino以此次快速响应为例,将USDT定位为'人民的数字美元',强调机构和个人在危机时刻会优先选择响应迅速的稳定币平台。事件凸显了链上基础设施在安全事件中的快速响应能力正成为稳定币竞争的重要差异化因素。

USDT is the People's digital dollar. People and institutions will always gravitate towards solutions that protect them in difficult moments like these security breaches. Well done @USDT0_to team ❤️

@paoloardoino ↗
Crypto

澳大利亚判令币安本地子公司赔偿690万美元

澳大利亚联邦法院判令Binance本地子公司支付690万美元;同期报道显示俄罗斯和伊朗相关组织正利用加密货币资助购买低成本军事无人机及零部件。

Australian federal court: Binance local unit to pay $6.9M; Russia and Iran-linked groups using crypto to finance military drone purchases

加密货币监管执法在全球范围持续强化,同时加密资产被用于规避制裁、资助武器采购的风险再度引发关注。两则消息叠加,可能加速各国监管机构对加密货币反制裁合规要求的收紧步伐。

The Australian federal court has ordered Binance's local unit to pay $6.9 million, while groups linked to Russia and Iran are using crypto to finance the purchase of low-cost military drones and components. Here are the crypto stories of the week

@reutersasia ↗
Crypto

谷歌白皮书:量子系统或可在数分钟内破解比特币

谷歌发布新白皮书称,量子计算系统可能仅需数分钟即可破解比特币的加密算法。

Google whitepaper: quantum system could crack Bitcoin in 'only minutes'

谷歌的量子计算研究再次将区块链加密安全的长期威胁推到聚光灯下,但达到破解比特币所需算力的实际时间线仍存在较大不确定性。加密货币社区通常认为行业在量子威胁真正落地前有充足时间升级加密算法,短期市场影响有限。

Google's new whitepaper says it could take only minutes for a quantum system to crack Bitcoin.

@thestreet ↗
宏观

贝莱德做空德国国债,押注欧洲通胀大幅反弹

贝莱德增加德国国债空头头寸,预期欧洲将出现"相当大的通胀反弹",推动借贷成本重回上周触及的15年高位上方;欧洲柴油期货同步触及2022年以来最高水平。

BlackRock adds German bund shorts, forecasts "pretty large inflation uptick"; Europe diesel futures: highest since 2022; ECB adverse scenario recovery delayed to Q4 2026–2027

贝莱德的实际仓位变化与ECB执委帕内塔的措辞高度共鸣——能源冲击已被欧洲机构视为具有系统性金融稳定风险的因素,而非周期性波动。ECB将不利情景下的经济恢复时间线推迟至2026年第四季度至2027年间,意味着基准情景外的尾部风险窗口大幅延长。

BlackRock has added to bearish positions on German bonds, betting that a "pretty large inflation uptick" across Europe will push borrowing costs back above the 15-year highs reached last week

@business ↗
AI / 科技

Poolside AI数据中心计划受阻,转与谷歌洽谈

AI初创公司Poolside因与CoreWeave的交易告吹,正在与谷歌及其他云服务商洽谈,以挽救其雄心勃勃的2吉瓦德克萨斯州数据中心项目。

Poolside: 2GW Texas data center project; CoreWeave deal fell through; in talks with Google and other cloud providers

CoreWeave交易破裂迫使Poolside转向谷歌等大型云平台,反映出AI算力军备竞赛中独立基础设施融资的高难度与脆弱性。2GW的规模彰显了前沿AI训练对电力资源的极端需求,但单一合作方破裂即令整个项目陷入困境,揭示了AI基础设施供应链的集中风险。

【CoreWeave交易告吹后,Poolside寻找新的数据中心合作伙伴】为挽救其雄心勃勃的2吉瓦得州项目,这家AI初创公司与谷歌及其他云服务商展开洽谈。

@ftchinese ↗
AI / 科技

Steam Linux游戏份额3月突破5%,超macOS两倍

Steam平台3月Linux游戏份额突破5%创历史新高,超过macOS游戏份额的两倍,较此前多年维持的约1-3%水平实现跃升,Valve的Proton兼容层和Steam Deck被认为是主要推动力。

Steam Linux gaming >5% marketshare in March; more than 2× macOS gaming share; prior years ~1–3%

Linux游戏份额的跃升标志着Valve长期技术投入开始产生规模效应,Proton兼容层已使绝大多数Windows游戏可在Linux上流畅运行。知名开发者DHH亲测在Linux开发机上运行Steam游戏"trivially easy",印证了生态可用性的质变。这对开源桌面操作系统的长期商业生存空间具有指标意义。

Had the kids playing Bigfoot on Steam on Omarchy all this Easter week because we're on vacation and the only laptops I brought were my dev machines which were quickly repurposed for a brotherly LAN party. No wonder Linux gaming is growing: Steam made it trivial!

@dhh ↗
美股

特斯拉北欧销量大幅反弹,挪威暴涨178%

特斯拉在挪威、瑞典、丹麦的注册量同比分别大涨178%、144%和96%,被解读为新款Model Y的压抑需求释放,而非马斯克政治争议导致的品牌受损论的反驳证据。

Tesla registrations: Norway +178%, Sweden +144%, Denmark +96% YoY; attributed to new Model Y pent-up demand

数据对此前"马斯克政治立场永久损害特斯拉欧洲品牌"的市场叙事形成了有力反驳。DHH等评论人士认为此前销量下滑系等待新Model Y所致,产品周期的主导作用被品牌争议的噪音所掩盖。这对Tesla做空者和看多者均具有重新校准叙事的意义。

"In Norway, Sweden and Denmark, Tesla registrations were up by 178%, 144% and 96%." I remember all the grandstanding in DK about how Tesla was irreversibly damaged by Elon because sales dipped for a second. Turns out most were just waiting for new Model Y!

@dhh ↗
美股

马斯克将特斯拉战略重心转向人形机器人

据报道埃隆·马斯克正对特斯拉进行重大战略重构,将重心从纯电动车硬转向人形机器人和自动驾驶汽车,前特斯拉总裁Jon McNeill公开就此发表看法。

Musk: Tesla hard shift from EVs to humanoid robots & self-driving cars; former Tesla president Jon McNeill responds

战略重心转移引发了关于特斯拉核心身份的争议。支持者将人形机器人视为规模更大的下一个市场,质疑者则担忧在EV竞争加剧的窗口期核心业务遭到边缘化。前总裁McNeill的公开回应增添了内部人士视角,信号意义值得关注。

Elon Musk is ripping up Tesla again, making a hard shift from EVs to humanoid robots and self-driving cars. His friend and former Tesla president Jon McNeill has thoughts

@business ↗
地缘

俄罗斯表态愿调停伊朗战争,普京将与沙特王储通话

克里姆林宫表示若有需要俄罗斯准备协助调停伊朗战争,普京同日接见埃及外长并将与沙特王储MBS通话,讨论在埃及建立粮食和能源枢纽计划。

Kremlin: Russia "ready to help contribute to resolving the Iran war"; Putin calls Saudi MBS (per TASS); Putin met Egyptian FM; Russia plans grain/energy hub in Egypt

俄罗斯借伊朗战争积极扩大中东外交影响力,同步密切接触埃及和沙特两个关键支点国家。这一布局旨在将俄罗斯定位为战后中东秩序的重要参与者,同时借机深化与产油国的能源合作,形成对西方主导的战后重建叙事的竞争性替代方案。

Kremlin on Trump statement about Iran: If needed, Russia is ready to help contribute to resolving the Iran war

@financialjuice ↗
Crypto

Circle收购不可篡改去中心化稳定币协议Liquity

Circle收购了Liquity协议,该协议因无管理员密钥、无治理机制、合约不可篡改而被设计为"不可收购",Circle虽持有法律实体但在技术上无法修改协议本身。

Circle acquires Liquity; Liquity: no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts; Circle owns entity but cannot modify protocol

加密分析账号@aixbt_agent将此次收购定性为"竞争性消除"而非DeFi扩张——Circle买下了最有可能挑战USDC的去中心化稳定币协议,但因协议不可变性实际上无法整合、关闭或调整它。这一矛盾结构引发了关于真正去中心化能否有效抵御企业并购的根本性讨论。

circle just acquired the only stablecoin protocol designed to be unacquirable. liquity has no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts. circle owns the entity but literally cannot modify the protocol. this isn't a DeFi expansion play. this is competitive elimination.

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto

USDT0安全事件90分钟内暂停Solana基础设施

USDT0在安全事件发生后90分钟内暂停了其在Solana链上的遗留网格基础设施,Tether CEO帕奥罗·阿多伊诺将此作为USDT在危机中稳定性的背书案例,并将事件定性为行业快速响应的示范。

USDT0 paused Solana legacy mesh infrastructure within 90 minutes of security incident; Tether CEO publicly endorsed response

90分钟的响应速度被Tether方面包装为机构级安全处置能力的证明,并被用于强化USDT在危机时刻的品牌叙事。然而这也暴露出跨链稳定币基础设施中存在可被暂停的中心化控制点,与去中心化稳定币的设计理念形成对比。

USDT is the People's digital dollar. People and institutions will always gravitate towards solutions that protect them in difficult moments like these security breaches.

@paoloardoino ↗
Crypto

USELESS迷因币登上马竞队服,4月4日战巴萨

USELESS迷因币通过赢得Kraken交易竞赛获得马德里竞技官方球衣广告资格,将出现在4月4日对阵巴塞罗那的比赛限量版球衣上,此前该币已在美国全国电视台获得32亿美元净资产房地产大亨推荐。

$USELESS coin on Atletico Madrid jersey for April 4 game vs FC Barcelona; won @krakenfx trading competition; prior US national TV exposure by $3.2bn net worth tycoon

通过体育赛事进行迷因币营销的路径正在成为加密项目获取主流曝光的新渠道。马德里竞技与Kraken的联动赋予了一个无实质功能的迷因币顶级欧洲足球赛事的曝光权益,将传统体育赞助模式与加密流量叙事进行了结合,具有营销层面的标志性意义。

just a few weeks ago, a $3.2 billion net worth real estate tycoon talked about $USELESS on US national TV now, one of the world's biggest football clubs has just posted that USELESS will be featured on its jersey in a game vs Barcelona in a few days (on April 4)

@theunipcs ↗
Crypto

澳大利亚法院判Binance本地子公司赔偿690万澳元

澳大利亚联邦法院裁定Binance本地子公司支付690万澳元罚款,同期报告揭示与俄罗斯和伊朗相关团体正利用加密货币采购低成本军事无人机和零部件。

Australian Federal Court: Binance local unit ordered to pay A$6.9 million; Russia/Iran-linked groups using crypto to finance military drone purchases

Binance澳大利亚子公司的罚款与伊朗及俄罗斯利用加密货币规避制裁采购武器的报道同步出现,在当前地缘政治背景下强化了监管机构对加密合规性的重视程度。两则信息并置暗示全球监管机构将加快对交易所的制裁合规审查。

The Australian federal court has ordered Binance's local unit to pay $6.9 million, while groups linked to Russia and Iran are using crypto to finance the purchase of low-cost military drones and components.

@reutersasia ↗
AI / 科技

Poolside AI寻找新数据中心合作方,与谷歌洽谈2GW德州项目

AI初创公司Poolside在CoreWeave数据中心交易告吹后,正与谷歌及其他云服务商洽谈,以挽救其雄心勃勃的2吉瓦德克萨斯州算力基础设施项目。

Poolside: 2GW Texas data center project; CoreWeave deal fell through; in talks with Google + other cloud providers

顶级AI训练基础设施的融资结构复杂性凸显,CoreWeave交易失败后Poolside被迫转向战略性超大规模云合作伙伴。这反映出当前AI算力军备竞赛中,独立算力供应商的资本市场脆弱性与大型云厂商的优势地位之间持续扩大的差距。

【CoreWeave交易告吹后,Poolside寻找新的数据中心合作伙伴】为挽救其雄心勃勃的2吉瓦得州项目,这家AI初创公司与谷歌及其他云服务商展开洽谈。

@ftchinese ↗
AI / 科技

PyTorch大会:AMD与Meta/RedHat在ROCm上展示联合AI成果

PyTorch大会上AMD工程师联合Meta和RedHat,发布在ROCm平台上涵盖分布式训练、量化、推理路由及隐私保护微调的多项联合成果。

PyTorchCon: AMD + Meta + RedHat; distributed training, quantization, inference routing, privacy-preserving fine-tuning on ROCm™

AMD正通过开源生态与顶级AI研究机构深度绑定,以建立对英伟达CUDA生态的替代竞争地位。与Meta的联合展示表明ROCm已进入生产级应用验证阶段,是AI芯片竞争格局中值得关注的生态扩张信号。

#PyTorchCon is packed with @AMD engineers this year including joint work with engineers from @Meta and @RedHat. Multiple sessions spanning distributed training, quantization, inference routing, and privacy-preserving fine-tuning — all on ROCm™. This is what native PyTorch

@pytorch ↗
AI / 科技

麦格理:印度有望成为AI超级大国并点名相关标的

麦格理发布研报认为印度有潜力成为"AI超级大国",并具体点名了值得重点关注的相关投资标的。

Macquarie report: India 'AI powerhouse' thesis; specific top stocks named

在中美科技脱钩持续深化的背景下,印度被主流机构视为AI产业重要替代投资目的地,麦格理正式研报的发布是机构资金系统性配置印度AI赛道的重要信号。

Macquarie: India could emerge as an 'AI powerhouse' and names top stocks to watch

@cnbc ↗
AI / 科技

SpaceX猎鹰9号从佛罗里达发射29颗星链卫星

SpaceX猎鹰9号火箭从佛罗里达州成功发射29颗Starlink卫星入轨。

Falcon 9: 29 Starlink satellites launched from Florida

Watch Falcon 9 launch 29 @Starlink satellites to orbit from Florida

@spacex ↗
AI / 科技

欧洲AI法律公司Legora 18个月ARR从100万增至1亿美元

欧洲AI法律科技公司Legora年度经常性收入(ARR)在18个月内从100万美元增长至1亿美元,成为欧洲AI应用层商业化最强有力的案例之一。

Legora ARR: $1M → $100M in 18 months

Legora的百倍ARR增速是欧洲AI应用商业化突破的有力论据,在欧洲AI监管环境严苛、市场普遍悲观的背景下尤为突出,展示了垂直行业AI工具的规模化变现潜力。

Legora's $100M ARR is Europe's strongest argument yet. 18 months ago, it had $1M.

@thenextweb ↗
美股

礼来口服减肥药Foundayo获FDA批准,与诺和诺德Wegovy直接竞争

美国FDA批准礼来公司(Eli Lilly)口服减肥药Foundayo上市,直接进入价值数百亿美元的市场,与诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)的Wegovy口服版正面竞争。

Lilly's Foundayo: FDA approved obesity pill; competing with Novo's Wegovy pill in multi-billion dollar market

口服GLP-1市场竞争进入白热化阶段,礼来入场将加速价格竞争并扩大患者覆盖。分析人士认为竞争加剧最终将使患者受益,同时对两家公司的市场定价权形成长期压制。

Another pill to fight obesity won US approval, pitting Lilly's Foundayo against Novo's Wegovy pill in the race to dominate a market worth billions. Patients and consumers may also be winners, as prices fall and selection expands.

@business ↗
美股

印度国防出口激增62%至41亿美元创历史新高

印度2025-26财年国防出口同比激增62%至41亿美元,在全球军备需求上升背景下创下历史纪录。

India defense exports: +62% YoY to $4.1B in fiscal year to March 2026

伊朗战争和全球地缘紧张持续推动各国国防支出提升,印度凭借成本优势和战略中立立场成为防务出口重要受益方,也是其"印度制造"国家战略的关键成果印证。

India defence exports surged 62% to $4.1 billion in fiscal year to March

@reutersworld ↗
美股

零跑汽车连续四季度交付逾10万辆,比亚迪同期销量下滑

斯泰兰蒂斯支持的零跑汽车(Leapmotor)连续第四个季度实现电动车交付量超10万辆,而比亚迪同期销量出现下滑。

Leapmotor (Stellantis-backed): 100,000+ EV deliveries for 4th consecutive quarter; BYD sales fall

零跑借助斯泰兰蒂斯的海外渠道持续扩张,在战争引发经济放缓、消费信心下行的背景下逆势增长,与比亚迪的下滑形成对比,揭示中国电动车市场的内部份额再分配正在加速。

Stellantis-backed Leapmotor delivers more than 100,000 EVs for fourth-straight quarter as BYD sales fall

@cnbc ↗
Crypto

Circle收购Liquity:拥有设计上"不可收购"的不可变稳定币协议

Circle收购了Liquity——一个没有管理员密钥、无治理机制、合约完全不可修改的去中心化稳定币协议,但作为收购方的Circle实际上无法对该协议本身进行任何修改。

Circle acquires Liquity; Liquity: no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts; Circle owns entity but cannot modify protocol — described as 'competitive elimination' not DeFi expansion

分析人士将此次收购定性为"竞争性消除"而非DeFi扩张战略——Circle通过控制持有协议的法律实体来压制潜在竞争,但协议本身的不可修改性使这种控制权极为有限。这是中心化稳定币巨头与去中心化不可变协议之间权力关系博弈的罕见范本。

circle just acquired the only stablecoin protocol designed to be unacquirable. liquity has no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts. circle owns the entity but literally cannot modify the protocol. this isn't a DeFi expansion play. this is competitive elimination.

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto

澳大利亚法院判令Binance本地子公司支付690万澳元罚款

澳大利亚联邦法院裁定Binance本地子公司须支付690万澳元罚款;同期报道显示与俄罗斯和伊朗相关的组织正利用加密货币为购买低成本军用无人机及零件融资。

Australian federal court: Binance local unit ordered to pay $6.9M AUD; Russia & Iran-linked groups using crypto to finance military drone purchases

Binance在澳大利亚的监管处罚与战时加密货币军事融资报道同期出现,进一步强化监管机构加强加密合规要求的政策叙事。两条线索叠加,预示全球加密监管压力将在战争背景下持续升温。

The Australian federal court has ordered Binance's local unit to pay $6.9 million, while groups linked to Russia and Iran are using crypto to finance the purchase of low-cost military drones and components.

@reutersasia ↗
Crypto

$USELESS代币将出现在马竞对阵巴萨比赛限量版球衣上

马德里竞技足球俱乐部宣布$USELESS代币将出现在4月4日对阵巴塞罗那的比赛限量版球衣上;该代币此前已由净资产32亿美元的房地产富豪在美国全国电视上公开提及。

$USELESS: Atletico Madrid limited edition jersey April 4 vs FC Barcelona; previously mentioned on US national TV by $3.2B net worth real estate tycoon; won @krakenfx trading competition

Meme代币通过顶级欧洲足球IP实现主流曝光,$USELESS经Kraken交易竞赛冠军获得马竞球衣冠名权。这是Meme币营销与传统体育商业结合的最新案例,显示加密项目正在通过高曝光度体育赞助寻求主流受众渗透。

just a few weeks ago, a $3.2 billion net worth real estate tycoon talked about $USELESS on US national TV now, one of the world's biggest football clubs has just posted that USELESS will be featured on its jersey in a game vs Barcelona in a few days (on April 4)

@theunipcs ↗
宏观

美国初请失业金20.2万,大幅低于预期

美国上周初请失业金人数降至20.2万,远低于市场预期的21.2万及前值21.1万;ADP数据同期显示小微企业(1–19人)3月新增11.2万岗位,为2024年2月以来最佳。

Initial claims 202K actual vs 212K est, prev 211K; continued claims 1.841M vs 1.8365M est; ADP small firms (1-19 employees) +112K in March

短期就业数据优于预期显示劳动市场韧性,但ISM制造业3月数据呈"滞胀"特征——价格支付指数飙升而就业分项仍在收缩区间,与初请数据形成结构性矛盾。IMF亦警告中期就业增速将低于疫情前平均水平的一半。

202K PEOPLE IN THE 🇺🇸 FILED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT THIS PAST WEEK below EXPECTATIONS OF 212K

@stockmktnewz ↗
宏观

OPEC+或于周日讨论进一步提高产量配额

两位OPEC+内部消息人士透露,OPEC+可能在周日会议上讨论进一步提高石油产量配额,以准备应对霍尔木兹海峡出口限制缓解的情景;同期俄罗斯因无人机袭击能源设施导致石油出口能力下降约100万桶/天。

OPEC+ Sunday meeting; possible further output quota hike; Russia oil export capacity -1mbpd from drone strikes

OPEC+增产讨论与俄罗斯被动减产并存,供需双向压力令油市预期更加复杂。市场观察人士指出,若霍尔木兹局势缓解而OPEC+同步增产,油价可能面临回调;但当前封锁情景持续则令增产讨论意义有限。

OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further oil output quota hike at the meeting on Sunday, to prepare for any easing of Hormuz export constraints - Two OPEC+ sources

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

特斯拉战略转型:马斯克重心从电动车移向人形机器人

据报道,埃隆·马斯克正对特斯拉进行重大战略重构,将核心业务重心从传统电动汽车大幅转向人形机器人和自动驾驶汽车,前任总裁Jon McNeill对此发表了看法。

Musk making 'hard shift' from EVs to humanoid robots and self-driving cars at Tesla

这一战略转型与特斯拉Q1交付量大幅低于预期同日曝光,引发市场对核心电动车业务的担忧。分析人士认为此举表明马斯克优先级已发生根本性转变;Leapmotor等竞争对手同期连续第四季度交付超10万辆,进一步凸显特斯拉面临的竞争压力。

Elon Musk is ripping up Tesla again, making a hard shift from EVs to humanoid robots and self-driving cars. His friend and former Tesla president Jon McNeill has thoughts

@bw ↗
AI / 科技

麦格理:印度有望成为AI强国,点名重点投资标的

麦格理发布研究报告,预测印度有望成为"AI强国",并给出重点关注的相关投资标的名单;印度同期宣布启动十年来首次数字人口普查。

Macquarie: India could emerge as an 'AI powerhouse'; India begins first digital census in over a decade

外资机构对印度数字化基础设施投资前景持乐观态度,数字普查的启动将提供大量结构性数据,有助于AI应用落地。与此同时,印度国防出口在截至3月的财年中激增62%至41亿美元,科技与防务两条线同步升温。

Macquarie: India could emerge as an 'AI powerhouse' and names top stocks to watch

@cnbc ↗
AI / 科技

中国扩展数字人民币,新增12家银行运营商

中国扩大数字人民币(e-CNY)试点项目规模,新增12家银行运营商参与,持续推进数字货币基础设施建设。

China adds 12 new bank operators to digital yuan programme

数字人民币在中东危机及全球支付体系重构背景下加速扩张,分析认为此举与中国持续推进人民币国际化及减少对美元结算体系依赖的战略目标相一致,亦与x402等新型支付协议的发展形成竞争态势。

China expands digital yuan programme with 12 new bank operators

@reutersasia ↗
AI / 科技

OpenClaw助力中国高性价比AI模型全球出口

OpenClaw正在帮助中国人工智能企业将其"高性价比"AI模型出口至全球市场,加速中国AI产品国际化布局。

OpenClaw facilitating Chinese 'value-for-money' AI model exports globally

在美国AI出口管制持续收紧的背景下,中国AI企业通过第三方平台开拓出口渠道,引发行业对技术扩散路径和地缘科技博弈演变的关注。这一趋势与中东危机引发的供应链重组背景相叠加,可能加速全球AI生态的阵营化分化。

OpenClaw is helping China export its value-for-money AI models

@business ↗
美股

KKR逆行业低迷完成230亿美元美洲收购基金募资

KKR为其最新美洲收购基金完成约230亿美元募资,在私募股权行业整体遭遇低迷的背景下逆势达成,同期Blackstone旗下AGS Health亦在孟买秘密提交IPO文件。

KKR raises ~$23B for Americas buyout fund, 'defying an industry slump'; Blackstone-owned AGS Health files confidential IPO in Mumbai

KKR的募资成功被视为机构资本对顶级私募管理人持续信任的体现,但同期Blue Owl私信基金赎回潮显示私募市场内部出现明显分化——头部品牌溢价显著,而其他产品则面临流动性压力,IPO市场亦因股市动荡而整体趋于保守。

KKR raises approximately $23 billion for its latest Americas buyout fund, defying an industry slump

@business ↗
美股

礼来Foundayo获FDA批准,GLP-1口服减肥药竞争加剧

礼来公司减肥药Foundayo获得美国FDA批准,成为诺和诺德Wegovy口服剂型的直接竞争对手,同日FDA亦开始严格管控GLP-1药物大规模复配,利好持有礼来/诺和诺德合作伙伴关系的公司。

Lilly's Foundayo FDA-approved; competing with Novo's Wegovy pill; FDA cracking down on bulk compounding of GLPs

新药获批可能进一步加剧礼来与诺和诺德的价格竞争,分析认为患者将受益于选择增加和价格下降;FDA对复配药的收紧则对HIMS等依赖复配路径的公司构成压力,同时利好持有正版合作授权的企业。

Another pill to fight obesity won US approval, pitting Lilly's Foundayo against Novo's Wegovy pill in the race to dominate a market worth billions. Patients and consumers may also be winners, as prices fall and selection expands.

@business ↗
美股

Andurand旗舰基金Q1大涨,押注高油价成最大赢家

能源交易商Pierre Andurand旗下最大对冲基金因Q1做多石油头寸大幅盈利,中东冲突触发全球供应冲击是主要催化剂;同期多家以稳健回报著称的大型对冲基金在3月录得亏损。

Andurand fund soared in Q1 on bullish oil bets; major hedge funds known for steady returns lost money in March

Andurand的成功与大型宏观对冲基金3月亏损形成鲜明对比,显示伊朗战争对高度定向的能源多头是罕见的"完美风暴",而多元配置的宏观策略则因资产间相关性突变而受损。CME集团3月月度合约量创历史纪录(4110万张,同比+33%)亦侧面印证了市场波动率的空前放大。

Energy trader Pierre Andurand's largest hedge fund soared in the first quarter on bullish oil bets as the conflict in the Middle East triggered a global supply shock

@business ↗
Crypto

Circle收购不可变稳定币协议Liquity,意在竞争性消除

Circle收购了Liquity协议——该协议无管理员密钥、无治理机制、合约完全不可变;分析人士认为此举并非扩展DeFi布局,而是通过收购实体来消除竞争对手,但Circle实际上无法修改协议代码。

Circle acquired Liquity; no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts; Circle owns entity but cannot modify protocol

此次收购在加密社区引发广泛争议。批评者认为Circle将中心化控制意志强加于去中心化协议,即便技术上无法执行,也已从根本上改变了协议的信任背书性质;支持者则认为代码不可变性保证了协议本身未受影响。

circle just acquired the only stablecoin protocol designed to be unacquirable. liquity has no admin keys, no governance, immutable contracts. circle owns the entity but literally cannot modify the protocol. this isn't a DeFi expansion play. this is competitive elimination.

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto

Zcash算力去中心化改善,ViaBTC不再控制多数算力

ViaBTC矿池不再持有Zcash网络的多数算力,此前其占比曾超60%,加密隐私货币Zcash的挖矿去中心化程度达到显著里程碑。

ViaBTC no longer has majority of Zcash hashrate (was >60% previously); improving daily as competition increases

Zcash生态支持者认为算力去中心化是隐私货币抗审查能力的核心保障,ViaBTC集中度下降标志着Zcash网络安全性达到关键里程碑。在中东战争引发各国政府加强金融监控的背景下,加密隐私赛道的基础设施健壮性受到更高关注。

this is extremely good news the most uncomfortable part of zcash for me had been the hashrate concentration in one pool (it was over 60% at one point) but as competition increased, it's now way better and improving every day 1,000 days for encrypted money to win before AOC

@mert ↗
宏观

俄罗斯因无人机袭击石油出口能力缩减100万桶/日

无人机袭击俄罗斯巴什科尔托斯坦炼油厂并引发火灾,导致俄罗斯石油出口能力减少约100万桶/日。

Russia oil export capacity cut ~1mbpd by drone strikes; Bashkortostan refinery hit, fire reported

在霍尔木兹封锁已导致全球供应收紧的背景下,俄罗斯供应额外缩减进一步叠加压力,是当日油价暴涨的第二重供给侧驱动。OPEC+周日会议可能讨论进一步提高产量配额以应对供应收紧,普京同日与沙特王储通话讨论中东局势和OPEC+运营。

Russia's oil export capacity cut by 1mbpd by drone strikes - Sources

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

SpaceX猎鹰9号从佛罗里达成功发射29颗星链卫星

SpaceX猎鹰9号从佛罗里达成功发射29颗Starlink卫星,官方确认入轨部署完成。

Falcon 9 launches 29 Starlink satellites from Florida; deployment confirmed

Falcon 9 launches 29 @Starlink satellites from Florida

@spacex ↗
AI / 科技

阿耳忒弥斯2号唯一厕所故障已修复

阿耳忒弥斯2号载人航天器上唯一一个厕所此前发生故障,现已修复并宣布恢复"可正常使用"状态。

Artemis II: only toilet malfunction resolved, status now 'go for use'

BREAKING: Artemis II toilet problem has been resolved & is now "go for use"

@polymarket ↗
AI / 科技

ADP:20%劳动者每天使用AI,仅22%感到工作安全

ADP最新调查显示,20%的劳动者几乎每天使用AI,30%每周多次使用,15%从未使用;仅22%的劳动者认为自己的工作安全。

20% use AI nearly every day; 30% multiple times/week; 15% never; only 22% feel job is 'safe' — ADP survey

AI渗透率快速提升与就业安全感下降形成鲜明对比,印证了科技裁员数据所揭示的就业结构性转变趋势。高AI使用率与低工作安全感并存,显示AI正在改变劳动力市场的心理预期。

20% of workers say they use AI nearly every day, while 30% use it multiple times a week, and 15% of workers have never used it, per ADP.

@unusual_whales ↗
美股

标普500 Q1:SanDisk涨168%,科技板块连跌5个月

标普500 Q1 2026中,SanDisk(SNDK)以+167.7%领涨,AppLovin(APP)以-40.9%垫底;科技板块录得连续第5个月下跌,为2002年以来最长连跌纪录。

S&P 500 Q1 2026: SNDK +167.7%, LITE +90.7%, LYB +86.1%; APP -40.9% worst; Tech: 5th straight monthly drop, longest since 2002

科技板块整体承压,但AI基础设施供应商(如SanDisk)逆势大涨,显示资金从AI应用层流向硬件基础设施层的结构性轮动。巨头科技股与非盈利科技股的相对表现已回吐ChatGPT发布(2022年11月)以来的全部超额收益,意味着三年AI溢价已全部回吐。

This is how every stock in the S&P 500 performed in Q1 🥇 Sandisk $SNDK +167.7%🟢 🥈 Lumentum $LITE +90.7%🟢 🥉 LyondellBasell $LYB +86.1%🟢 ... 💩 Applovin $APP -40.9%

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股

油价暴涨前创纪录9.77亿美元涌入做空原油ETF

在今日油价大涨之前,交易者向做空原油ETF($SCO)单月净流入创纪录的9.77亿美元,为该基金2008年成立以来最大月度净流入。

Record $977M monthly inflow into $SCO (2x leveraged short oil ETF) — largest since fund's 2008 inception; immediately preceding +13% oil surge

这一创纪录的反向仓位在油价暴涨时造成巨大亏损,体现了市场对霍尔木兹局势的严重误判。特朗普演讲此前被媒体提前披露为"战争趋于结束",诱导空头进一步加仓,最终结果截然相反,形成史诗级空头陷阱。

Prior to today's massive rally in oil prices traders poured a record $977 million into levered short oil ETF, $SCO. This marked the fund's largest monthly inflow since its 2008 inception. Now, reports of President Trump "winding down" the Iran War in his address to the nation

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘

马克龙:武力重开霍尔木兹"不现实",批特朗普自相矛盾

法国总统马克龙访日期间表示,以军事手段强行重开霍尔木兹海峡"不现实",并公开批评特朗普在伊朗问题上"每天自相矛盾",以及通过质疑北约安全承诺的方式正在削弱联盟。

Macron: military option for Hormuz 'unrealistic'; Trump 'contradicting himself every day on Iran'; risks undermining NATO commitment

马克龙的公开批评代表欧洲盟友对美国伊朗战略最直接的高层质疑,欧盟外交官同日与中国外长王毅就伊朗局势通话并形成联合立场。德中双方也强调反对单一国家控制海上航道,多边反对声音正在凝聚,进一步孤立美国立场。

BREAKING: France's President Macron says it is "unrealistic" to open Hormuz Strait by force. Macron also says President Trump is "contradicting" himself every day on Iran.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘

"解放日"一周年:美国外资减少、制造业失9万岗位

特朗普关税"解放日"一周年当日,数据显示美国外商直接投资下降、工厂就业减少89,000人、货物贸易逆差上升2%;供应链已向越南转移,越南去年超越中国成为最大货运来源国。

Liberation Day +1yr: US FDI lower; factories -89,000 workers; goods trade deficit +2%; Vietnam surpassed China as leading manufacturing origin (Bloomberg customs data)

关税政策一年来的实际效果与预期目标(制造业回流、贸易逆差缩减)完全相反,供应链重塑流向东南亚而非美国本土。在当前伊朗战争引发全球能源价格飙升的背景下,贸易政策负面遗产被进一步放大。

Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2%

@carlquintanilla ↗
Crypto

24小时加密市场清算近4亿美元,多头占62%

过去24小时内加密货币市场共清算约3.984亿美元,其中多头仓位清算约2.46亿美元,占比约62%。

~$398.4M total crypto liquidations in 24H; ~$246M long positions liquidated (~62% of total)

油价暴涨与特朗普伊朗演讲升级紧张局势导致风险资产全线抛售,加密市场随股市同步遭受多头清算冲击。比特币在战争恐慌与能源价格飙升背景下被作为风险资产抛售,印证了当前宏观环境下BTC与传统风险资产的高度相关性。

~$398.4M LIQUIDATED FROM THE CRYPTO MARKET IN THE PAST 24H, ~$246M WERE LONG POSITIONS

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

Polymarket上线传统资产市场,Pyth提供预言机数据

Polymarket宣布上线传统资产市场,提供主要股票指数ETF、大宗商品(黄金、白银、天然气等)及美股个股的涨跌和每日收盘方向合约,底层数据由Pyth Pro预言机提供。

Polymarket launches traditional asset markets: equity index ETFs, commodities (gold/silver/NG), single-name US equities; up/down + daily close contracts; powered by Pyth Pro

这是预测市场向传统金融资产扩张的重要里程碑,将链上预测流动性与传统市场直接连接。在当前高度不确定的市场环境下时机显著,同日Polymarket还宣布成为LaLiga足球联赛的独家预测市场合作伙伴,加速全球用户扩张。

You can now get exposure to U.S. equities, major equity indices, & commodities (gold, silver, natural gas, etc) via our new traditional asset markets — powered by Pyth.

@polymarket ↗
Crypto

Solana基金会加入Linux基金会旗下x402开放支付协议

Solana基金会宣布加入在Linux基金会下成立的x402基金会,与Amazon、美国运通、Circle、Cloudflare、Coinbase、Google、Mastercard、Microsoft、Shopify、Stripe、Visa等共同构建AI代理支付开放标准。

Solana Foundation joins x402 Foundation at Linux Foundation; co-members: Amazon, Amex, Circle, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Fiserv, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa

x402协议旨在为AI代理的自主互联网交易提供中立开源基础设施,主流互联网和金融巨头的集体背书显示AI代理经济的支付层正在快速标准化。Solana的加入进一步提升协议的区块链原生能力,是Web3进入主流AI基础设施叙事的重要节点。

BREAKING: @SolanaFndn joins the x402 Foundation at @linuxfoundation

@solana ↗
Crypto

ViaBTC失去Zcash哈希率多数,网络去中心化改善

ViaBTC矿池不再持有Zcash网络的多数哈希率,此前其哈希率集中度曾一度超过60%,随竞争加剧现已显著下降。

ViaBTC no longer holds Zcash hashrate majority; previously >60% concentration; now declining with increased competition

哈希率集中是工作量证明隐私币网络安全的核心威胁,ViaBTC多数控制权的丧失显著降低了51%攻击风险,被行业人士视为Zcash作为加密隐私货币长期生存能力的积极信号。

this is extremely good news the most uncomfortable part of zcash for me had been the hashrate concentration in one pool (it was over 60% at one point) but as competition increased, it's now way better and improving every day 1,000 days for encrypted money to win before AOC

@mert ↗
Crypto

Flying Tulip在Sonic链ftUSD铸造破百万,保证金借贷上线

Flying Tulip协议在Sonic链上铸造的原生稳定币ftUSD突破100万美元,同时以"维持保证金"模式取代传统LTV模式的保证金借贷功能完成受限上线,接受USDC(上限150万)、S代币(上限2000万)和stS代币(上限800万)作为抵押品。

>$1M ftUSD minted on Sonic; margin lending live (guarded): USDC cap $1.5M, S cap $20M, stS cap $8M; maintenance margin model vs LTV

协议分析师将ftUSD的增长与DAI之于Maker、crvUSD之于Curve、USDe之于Ethena的历史类比,认为原生稳定币是DeFi协议构建长期防御性护城河的关键第一步。"维持保证金"新模式被认为可降低借款人压力、提升存款方收益,并催生全新对冲策略生态。

flying tulip on sonic just crossed $1m in ftUSD minted. irrelevant number in isolation. but every protocol that won the DeFi consolidation war built a native stablecoin first. DAI made maker. crvUSD made curve defensible. USDe scaled ethena to $3b. the integrated platform meta is

@aixbt_agent ↗
宏观

IMF磋商:美债2031年将超GDP 140%

IMF完成2026年美国第四条款年度磋商,预测美国2026年GDP增长2.4%,财政赤字维持GDP的7%-7.5%区间,国家债务将在2031年前超过GDP的140%;2025年GDP增速为2%。

IMF: US GDP 2025 actual 2.0%; projected 2026 growth 2.4%; fiscal deficit 7-7.5% of GDP; debt >140% of GDP by 2031; US employment growth <0.5x pre-pandemic pace

IMF同时指出关税的通胀冲击预计将减弱,核心PCE通胀有望在2027年上半年回归2%,但近期能源价格上行风险仍是主要威胁。中期内高关税对经常账户赤字的净效应为适度下降,约占GDP的3%。

IMF on USA: General government deficit is expected to remain in the 7-7.5 percent of GDP range, with debt exceeding 140 percent of GDP by 2031

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

3月科技裁员18720人,同比激增24%

2026年3月科技公司宣布裁员18,720人,较2025年3月增加逾24%,科技行业持续领跑各行业裁员公告总量,AI投资催生更精简的人员配置被广泛引用为主因。

Tech job cuts March 2026: 18,720 announced; +24%+ vs March 2025; tech leads all industries in total cut announcements

此数据与Challenger Gray整体市场裁员公告同比下降78%形成鲜明反差,显示AI重构人力需求对科技行业的冲击具有行业特异性。ADP同日数据显示20%工人已近乎每日使用AI,印证技术替代正在加速渗透职场。

BREAKING: Tech companies announced 18,720 job cuts in March — up more than 24% from March 2025.

@polymarket ↗
AI / 科技

ADP调查:20%工人每天使用AI,22%认为工作安全

ADP调查显示,20%的工人几乎每天使用AI,30%每周多次使用,15%从未使用AI;同期仅22%的工人认为自己的工作"安全"。

ADP: 20% use AI daily; 30% multiple times/week; 15% never used AI; only 22% feel jobs are 'safe'

AI渗透率数据与劳动力市场不安全感高度相关——AI高频采用率与工人对岗位稳定性的低置信度同步并存,为当日科技裁员激增数据提供了微观层面的结构性印证。

20% of workers say they use AI nearly every day, while 30% use it multiple times a week, and 15% of workers have never used it, per ADP.

@unusual_whales ↗
AI / 科技

a16z警告:热门npm包遭劫持植入后门

a16z报告称,黑客劫持互联网最流行的npm包之一,并利用其在每台运行npm install的机器上自动安装后门,a16z将软件供应链定性为现代软件开发中"最关键且防御最薄弱"的攻击面。

npm package hijacked; backdoor on every npm install machine; a16z: software supply chain = 'most critical, least-defended attack surface'

此事件与当日Drift DeFi 2.3亿美元被盗事件形成呼应,两者均指向人为因素是最薄弱环节——无论是点击恶意链接还是信任被污染的依赖包。软件供应链攻击的系统性风险正引发机构级关注。

The software supply chain has become the most critical and least-defended attack surface in modern software development. This week, someone hijacked one of the most popular packages on the internet and used it to install a backdoor on every machine that ran npm install.

@a16z ↗
AI / 科技

SpaceX猎鹰9号从佛罗里达发射29颗星链卫星

SpaceX猎鹰9号火箭从佛罗里达州成功发射29颗Starlink卫星,官方确认全部卫星成功入轨部署。

Falcon 9 launches 29 Starlink satellites from Florida; deployment confirmed

Deployment of 29 @Starlink satellites confirmed

@spacex ↗
美股

CME集团3月ADV创历史纪录达4110万份合约

CME集团3月月均日交易量(ADV)创历史纪录达4110万份合约(同比+33%),Q1季度ADV亦创纪录达3620万份(同比+22%)。

CME Group March ADV record: 41.1M contracts (+33% YoY); Q1 2026 ADV record: 36.2M contracts (+22% YoY); WTI Weekly options March ADV: ~50K contracts (record)

极端市场波动推动衍生品对冲需求激增,CME在原油周度期权等精准对冲工具上均创下交易量纪录。公司同时宣布加密期货和期权将于2026年5月29日启动24/7全天候交易(待监管审批),显示机构级数字资产衍生品需求持续上升。

CME Group hit a monthly ADV record of 41.1M contracts in March (+33% YoY) and a quarterly record of 36.2M contracts in Q1 (+22% YoY).

@cmegroup ↗
美股

福特Q1交付下滑8.8%,F系列皮卡受供应链拖累

福特汽车2026年Q1车辆交付量同比下滑8.8%,主力畅销车型F系列皮卡下滑16%,原因是2025年关键供应商火灾导致铝制车身面板供应持续受限。

Ford Q1 2026 deliveries: -8.8% YoY; F-Series pickup: -16% (constraint from supplier fire, aluminum body panels)

与特斯拉交付疲软数据同日公布,汽车行业整体面临销售压力。油价飙升对消费端的冲击预计将进一步压制汽车购买需求,而汽车零售商因油价上涨面临运输成本上升的双重挤压。

Ford's vehicle deliveries fell 8.8% in the first quarter, driven by a 16% decline in its top-selling F-Series pickup that continues to be constrained following fires last year at a key supplier of the truck's aluminum body panels

@business ↗
地缘

解放日一周年:制造业失业8.9万,贸易赤字上升2%

特朗普"解放日"关税政策实施一周年,数据显示美国外国直接投资下降,制造业就业减少89,000人,商品贸易逆差上升2%,关税政策所有核心目标均未达成。

1 year since Liberation Day: US FDI lower; US factory jobs -89,000; US goods trade deficit +2%; February trade deficit: -$57.3B vs -$60.6B est

关税政策未能实现重振制造业的既定目标,相关数据全面走弱,与政策宣称的效果相悖。2月贸易逆差为-573亿美元,好于预期的-606亿美元但较上月扩大,进出口均同比增长约4.2-4.3%。

Since Liberation Day, a year ago today: * US foreign direct investment is lower * US factories employ 89,000 fewer people * US goods trade deficit is UP 2%

@carlquintanilla ↗
Crypto

Polymarket上线传统资产市场,接入美股与大宗商品

Polymarket联合Pyth Network上线传统资产市场,用户可交易美国主要股票指数ETF、大宗商品(黄金、白银、天然气等)及单一美股的涨跌方向和日收盘价合约。

Polymarket + Pyth Pro: major US equity index ETFs, commodities (gold, silver, natural gas), single-name US equities; up/down + daily close contracts; powered by Pyth on-chain price feeds

这是去中心化预测市场向传统金融资产系统性扩张的重要节点。Polymarket此前已成为全球最大政治和事件预测市场,此次进入金融资产赛道将与传统衍生品交易所形成竞争,并为链上价格发现提供新基础设施层。

You can now get exposure to U.S. equities, major equity indices, & commodities (gold, silver, natural gas, etc) via our new traditional asset markets — powered by Pyth.

@polymarket ↗
Crypto

x402支付协议落户Linux基金会,Solana与谷歌亚马逊等联手

x402支付协议在Linux基金会建立中立开源主页,Solana基金会宣布加入,现有成员涵盖Amazon、American Express、Circle、Cloudflare、Coinbase、Fiserv、Google、Mastercard、Microsoft、Shopify、Stripe、Visa等。

x402 Foundation at Linux Foundation; members include Amazon, AmEx, Circle, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Fiserv, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa, Solana Foundation

x402协议旨在为AI代理及互联网原生支付构建基础设施标准,其成员名单横跨传统金融巨头与加密原生项目,显示加密支付轨道正在向企业级和跨行业开放标准演进,与AI代理自主支付场景的结合尤为值得关注。

BREAKING: @SolanaFndn joins the x402 Foundation at @linuxfoundation [QT @SolanaFndn: Solana Foundation is now a member of the x402 Foundation, joining Amazon, American Express, Circle, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Fiserv, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa, and more. The x402 protocol now has a neutral, open-source home at @linuxfoundation]

@solana ↗
Crypto

CME加密期货5月29日启动24/7交易

CME集团宣布加密货币期货和期权将于2026年5月29日(待监管审批)启动24小时/7天全天候交易;3月WTI每周期权ADV同时创历史纪录近5万份合约。

CME crypto futures & options: 24/7 trading begins May 29, 2026 (pending regulatory review); WTI Weekly options March ADV ~50K contracts (record)

CME的全天候加密交易计划反映机构级加密衍生品需求的持续增长,与当前极端市场波动带来的对冲需求相呼应。这是传统最大衍生品交易所持续向数字资产倾斜的重要信号,也将进一步提升加密市场的机构流动性。

In a non-stop market, a strategy that sleeps is a strategy that misses opportunities. Get ready to trade our Crypto futures and options 24/7, beginning May 29.* *Pending regulatory review

@cmegroup ↗
宏观

IMF:美公共债务2031年将超GDP的140%

IMF完成2026年美国第四条款磋商,预测美国2026年GDP增长2.4%,一般政府赤字维持在GDP的7%-7.5%,公共债务到2031年将超过GDP的140%。

US GDP growth 2.4% in 2026; general government deficit 7-7.5% of GDP; public debt >140% of GDP by 2031

IMF预计随着关税效应消退和能源价格回落,核心PCE通胀将在2027年上半年回归2%目标,但指出全球能源价格构成主要上行风险。IMF同时指出美国就业增速将显著放缓,当前活动和失业率的近期风险总体均衡。

IMF on US: General government deficit is expected to remain in the 7-7.5 percent of GDP range, with debt exceeding 140 percent of GDP by 2031

@financialjuice ↗
宏观

ECB官员明确暗示下次利率调整将上调

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示,下一次关键利率变化"极有可能"是上调,但具体时间表目前尚无法预测。

ECB Villeroy: next change in key interest rates 'highly likely to be upwards'

此表态与市场此前对ECB降息路径的预期形成显著背离,暗示欧洲通胀压力因油价上涨而重燃。英国BoE调查显示英国企业价格预期录得近两年最大涨幅,显示能源成本冲击正向全球央行政策传导。

🔴 ECB Villeroy: Next change in key interest rates is highly likely to be upwards.

@financialjuice ↗
宏观

美国30年期抵押贷款利率连续五周上行至6.46%

美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率连续第五周上行,升至6.46%。

US 30-yr mortgage rate 6.46%, 5th consecutive weekly increase

利率持续上行叠加油价和通胀冲击,进一步压缩消费者可支配收入,为房地产市场复苏增添阻力,并与美联储降息预期背道而驰。

US mortgage rates rise for fifth week, sending 30-Yr to 6.46%

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

SpaceX猎鹰9号部署29颗星链卫星

SpaceX猎鹰9号火箭从佛罗里达州发射升空,成功部署29颗星链卫星。

Falcon 9 launches 29 Starlink satellites from Florida; deployment confirmed

Falcon 9 launches 29 @Starlink satellites from Florida

@spacex ↗
AI / 科技

ADP调查:20%员工每天使用AI,15%从未使用

ADP调查显示,20%的员工每天使用AI,30%每周多次使用,而15%的员工从未使用过AI;同时仅22%的员工认为自己的工作是"安全的"。

20% workers use AI daily; 30% multiple times/week; 15% never used AI; only 22% feel jobs are 'safe' — ADP

AI职场渗透率与就业安全感数据同步披露,两者并置凸显劳动力市场的结构性焦虑。超七成员工对工作安全感缺失,与AI使用率快速提升形成直接关联,为裁员数据提供了结构性背景。

20% of workers say they use AI nearly every day, while 30% use it multiple times a week, and 15% of workers have never used it, per ADP.

@unusual_whales ↗
AI / 科技

英伟达与谷歌联合优化Gemma 4模型

英伟达与谷歌合作,针对英伟达GPU对Gemma 4模型进行专项优化。

Nvidia and Google collaborated to optimise Gemma 4 for Nvidia GPUs — $NVDA $GOOGL

此次合作显示开源/可访问AI模型与主流GPU硬件之间的深度生态绑定,对AI推理部署效率提升具有实际意义,同时强化了英伟达在AI基础设施的护城河。

Nvidia and Google worked to optimise Gemma 4 for Nvidia GPUs. $NVDA $GOOGL

@financialjuice ↗
美股

3月科技行业裁员18720人同比增24%

2026年3月科技公司宣布裁员18,720人,较2025年3月同比增长逾24%。

Tech sector: 18,720 job cuts announced in March 2026, +24% vs March 2025

科技裁员加速与AI使用率快速提升形成反差,市场解读为AI替代效应与宏观不确定性共同驱动的劳动力结构调整,与ADP调查中仅22%员工认为工作"安全"的数据相互印证。

BREAKING: Tech companies announced 18,720 job cuts in March — up more than 24% from March 2025.

@polymarket ↗
美股

福特Q1汽车交付量同比下滑8.8%

福特2026年Q1汽车交付量同比下滑8.8%,F系列皮卡销量下降16%,主因去年供应商工厂火灾导致铝制车身面板供应持续受限。

Ford Q1 deliveries -8.8% YoY; F-Series pickup -16% due to supplier fire-related aluminum panel constraint

F系列是福特最畅销车型,供应链中断持续压制销量,与电动车需求疲软共同构成传统车企的双重逆风,进一步强化了2026年Q1汽车行业整体承压的叙事。

Ford's vehicle deliveries fell 8.8% in the first quarter, driven by a 16% decline in its top-selling F-Series pickup that continues to be constrained following fires last year at a key supplier of the truck's aluminum body panels

@business ↗
地缘

特朗普告知博恩迪司法部长任期将结束

据Semafor报道,特朗普已告知司法部长帕姆·博恩迪其担任司法部长的时间"即将结束"。

Trump informed AG Pam Bondi her time as Attorney General is 'nearing its end' — Semafor

此消息引发外界对白宫法律团队重组及潜在继任人选的广泛猜测,在伊朗战争法律授权及多项国内司法议题(移民、生育公民权)的关键时间节点,司法部长人选具有重大政策影响。

BREAKING: President Trump has informed Attorney General Pam Bondi that "her time as Attorney General is nearing its end," per Semafor.

@kobeissiletter ↗
地缘

俄罗斯普里莫尔斯克港40%储油设施遭乌无人机摧毁

卫星图像显示,俄罗斯波罗的海普里莫尔斯克港至少40%的石油储存设施在乌克兰无人机袭击中被摧毁,乌斯季卢加港储油罐亦遭到打击。

Russia's Primorsk Baltic port: ≥40% oil storage destroyed by Ukrainian drone attacks; Ust-Luga port reservoirs also struck

对俄罗斯波罗的海石油出口基础设施的精准打击,在全球油价已因伊朗战争剧烈承压的背景下,进一步增加供应不确定性,对欧洲能源安全构成叠加压力。

Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk lost at least 40% of its oil storage to Ukrainian drone attacks, satellite images show

@financialjuice ↗
Crypto

Solana基金会加入x402开放支付协议基金会

Solana基金会宣布加入由Linux基金会托管的x402基金会,成员还包括Amazon、American Express、Circle、Cloudflare、Coinbase、Fiserv、Google、Mastercard、Microsoft、Shopify、Stripe和Visa。

Solana Foundation joins x402 Foundation at Linux Foundation; members include Amazon, Amex, Circle, Coinbase, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa

x402协议获得主流金融和科技巨头联合背书,并迁移至Linux基金会中立开源治理框架,标志着加密原生支付协议正式进入传统金融基础设施生态圈,为AI代理自主交易场景提供支付轨道。

BREAKING: @SolanaFndn joins the x402 Foundation at @linuxfoundation [QT @SolanaFndn: Solana Foundation is now a member of the x402 Foundation, joining Amazon, American Express, Circle, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Fiserv, Google, Mastercard, Microsoft, Shopify, Stripe, Visa, and more. The x402 protocol now has a neutral, open-source home at @linuxfoundation]

@solana ↗
Crypto

Polymarket上线美股及大宗商品传统资产市场

Polymarket与Pyth Network合作,上线美国股票、主要股票指数ETF及大宗商品(黄金、白银、天然气等)的涨跌预测和每日收盘合约交易。

Polymarket launches US equities, major index ETFs, commodities (gold, silver, natural gas) up/down & daily close contracts powered by Pyth Pro

此举将预测市场从纯粹的事件押注扩展至传统金融资产价格敞口,通过链上机制引入主流资产价格发现功能,是DeFi与传统金融基础设施深度融合的重要节点。

You can now get exposure to U.S. equities, major equity indices, & commodities (gold, silver, natural gas, etc) via our new traditional asset markets — powered by Pyth.

@polymarket ↗
Crypto

CME集团5月29日起推出加密货币24小时全天候交易

CME集团宣布计划于2026年5月29日起,在待监管批准的前提下,推出加密货币期货和期权的24小时全天候交易。

CME Group crypto futures & options 24/7 trading launching May 29, 2026 (pending regulatory review)

此举将加密衍生品与传统金融市场交易时间表脱钩,显著提升机构投资者在非交易时段对冲和套利的能力,是加密资产机构化进程的重要推进。

In a non-stop market, a strategy that sleeps is a strategy that misses opportunities. Get ready to trade our Crypto futures and options 24/7, beginning May 29.* ↪️ *Pending regulatory review

@cmegroup ↗
Crypto

中国数字人民币扩展至12家新银行运营机构

中国将数字人民币项目扩展至新增12家银行运营机构参与。

China expands digital yuan (e-CNY) programme with 12 new bank operators

数字人民币持续扩大生态合作伙伴网络,在国际支付体系因伊朗战争和制裁格局重构的背景下,人民币数字化进程的加速具有更深远的地缘金融含义,与Bloomberg关于中国借此扮演"全球成年人"角色的分析相互呼应。

China expands digital yuan programme with 12 new bank operators

@reutersasia ↗
Crypto

Zcash算力集中度改善ViaBTC不再独大

Zcash网络中ViaBTC矿池不再持有超过50%的算力份额,该矿池此前曾一度控制逾60%的Zcash算力。

ViaBTC no longer holds majority Zcash hashrate; was >60% at peak, now declining with increased competition

算力去中心化改善显著降低了Zcash网络遭受51%攻击的风险,对持有隐私币立场的投资者是重要的网络安全正面信号。隐私链领域的去中心化改善或为其在监管环境明朗化后的机构采用奠定基础。

this is extremely good news the most uncomfortable part of zcash for me had been the hashrate concentration in one pool (it was over 60% at one point) but as competition increased, it's now way better and improving every day 1,000 days for encrypted money to win before AOC

@mert ↗
宏观

美国抵押贷款利率连续五周上涨至6.46%

美国30年期固定抵押贷款利率连续第五周上涨,升至6.46%,春季购房旺季需求受压。

US 30-yr mortgage rate: 6.46%, 5th consecutive weekly increase

油价高涨推高通胀预期,压制联储降息空间,抵押贷款利率持续攀升对春季楼市形成双重压力。

US mortgage rates rise for fifth week, sending 30-Yr to 6.46%

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

Coinbase AI支付协议x402加入Linux基金会

Coinbase的AI支付协议x402宣布加入Linux基金会,获得谷歌、Stripe和AWS的公开支持背书。

Coinbase x402 AI payment protocol joins Linux Foundation; backed by Google, Stripe, AWS

x402的跨行业联盟支持意味着AI Agent自主支付能力正从概念走向开放标准。主流云厂商与支付基础设施的背书大幅提升了协议的可信度,或成为AI代理经济的基础支付轨道。

NEW: COINBASE AI PAYMENT PROTOCOL X402 JOINS LINUX FOUNDATION WITH SUPPORT FROM GOOGLE, STRIPE, AND AWS

@scottmelker ↗
美股

福特Q1交付下降8.8%,F系列皮卡跌16%

福特2026年Q1整体汽车交付量同比下降8.8%,旗舰F系列皮卡因供应商火灾导致铝制车身面板持续短缺,单季下滑16%。

Ford Q1 deliveries -8.8% YoY; F-Series -16% due to aluminum body panel supply disruption from supplier fires

供应链事故(铝制车身面板供应商火灾)是主因,与油价高企对消费支出的潜在抑制叠加,市场对汽车板块短期复苏持谨慎态度。

Ford's vehicle deliveries fell 8.8% in the first quarter, driven by a 16% decline in its top-selling F-Series pickup that continues to be constrained following fires last year at a key supplier of the truck's aluminum body panels

@business ↗
Crypto

CME加密期货期权5月29日起实现7×24小时交易

CME集团宣布其加密期货和期权产品将于2026年5月29日起实现全天候7×24小时交易,目前待监管审批。

CME crypto futures & options: 24/7 trading starting May 29, 2026; pending regulatory review

全天候加密衍生品交易将使机构投资者能够对冲周末和亚洲时段的价格风险,进一步缩小加密市场与传统金融的制度鸿沟,对期权定价和波动率结构亦有深远影响。

In a non-stop market, a strategy that sleeps is a strategy that misses opportunities. Get ready to trade our Crypto futures and options 24/7, beginning May 29.* *Pending regulatory review

@cmegroup ↗
Crypto

CFTC起诉伊利诺伊州官员,争夺预测市场监管权

CFTC对伊利诺伊州官员提起诉讼,针对其对预测市场的监管举措,凸显联邦与州政府在这一数十亿美元行业监管权上的冲突。

CFTC sued Illinois officials over state regulation of prediction markets; multi-billion-dollar industry

联邦监管机构主张对预测市场的统一联邦管辖权。此案结果将对Kalshi、Polymarket等平台的运营边界产生重要影响,Polymarket同日宣布上线传统资产市场(由Pyth提供数据支持)。

The CFTC sued Illinois officials over state efforts to regulate prediction markets, as the multi-billion-dollar industry continues to surge despite some efforts to limit the exchanges

@business ↗
Crypto

Zcash隐私交易量及矿工分布度双创历史新高

Zcash隐私屏蔽交易量达到历史最高水平,同期哈希率及矿工分布度亦同步创新高,矿池集中度从此前逾60%峰值大幅改善。

Zcash: shielded transactions ATH; hashrate ATH; miner distribution ATH; single pool concentration previously >60%, now improving

Zcash基础面多项指标同步创历史新高,去中心化程度改善降低了系统性风险。在伊朗战争引发的金融监控担忧背景下,隐私链上数据的改善为ZEC提供了一定叙事支撑。

another all time high in shielded zcash so, now we have: - zec hashrate ATH & distribution ATH - more miners on the way - zec shielded ATH - the best quantum proofing for an L1 & privacy - reduced blocktimes and sync times + scaling work underway - new dev team backed by

@mert ↗
宏观

美30年期房贷利率连涨五周至6.46%

美国30年期抵押贷款利率连续第五周上涨至6.46%,为2025年9月以来最高水平,压制春季购房旺季。

30-yr mortgage rate 6.46%, 5th consecutive weekly rise, highest since Sep 2025

房贷利率持续攀升是春季购房旺季的主要阻力;在十年代均值视角下(2020年代5.3%)当前利率属偏高但非极端水平,与能源价格上涨形成叠加消费压力。

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.46% (highest since Sep 2025)

@charliebilello ↗
宏观

美联储达拉斯行长警告战争引发双重风险

美联储达拉斯联储行长洛根表示,伊朗战争同时推高通胀风险并对劳动力市场构成威胁,且能源生产商需持续高价格方能扩大产能。

Fed Logan: Iran war raises risks of "both higher inflation and weakness in the labor market"; producers need "extend higher prices" to boost output; not hearing dramatic US energy production increase

洛根的表态暗示美联储面临滞胀困境,既需遏制通胀又须支撑经济增长。她明确表示未听到美国能源产量将大幅提升的信号,意味着供给端短期内难以缓解油价压力,货币政策空间受到双向挤压。

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan says the war in Iran is raising risks of both higher inflation and weakness in the labor market during an event in Dallas

@bloombergtv ↗
宏观

欧央行委员暗示下次利率变动为上调

欧洲央行政策委员维勒罗伊表示,下一次关键利率变动"极有可能"是上调,但拒绝给出具体时间表。

ECB Villeroy: "Next change in key interest rates is highly likely to be upwards"; timing "far too early to predict"

此表态与市场此前对欧央行降息的预期形成逆转,暗示伊朗战争推高的能源价格已重塑欧洲通胀前景;欧央行和美联储同样面临滞胀困境下的政策两难。

🔴 ECB Villeroy: Next change in key interest rates is highly likely to be upwards.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

ChatGPT语音模式接入苹果CarPlay

OpenAI宣布ChatGPT语音模式已在iOS 26.4+设备的Apple CarPlay上正式上线,向支持CarPlay的iPhone用户逐步推送。

ChatGPT voice mode in Apple CarPlay, requires iOS 26.4+, rolling out to iPhone users

此次整合将OpenAI的语音交互能力延伸至车载场景,进一步扩大ChatGPT在苹果生态系统中的渗透,标志着AI助手向驾驶日常场景的持续渗透。

ChatGPT is now available in CarPlay. The voice mode you know, now available on-the-go. Rolling out to iPhone users running iOS 26.4+ where CarPlay is supported.

@openai ↗
AI / 科技

AMD任命Sharon Zhou为AI首席参谋长

AMD宣布Sharon Zhou晋升为AI首席参谋长,直接向CEO Lisa Su汇报,以强化公司AI战略执行层。

AMD AI Chief of Staff Sharon Zhou reports directly to CEO Lisa Su

直接向Lisa Su汇报的架构显示AI业务在AMD内部战略优先级进一步提升,AMD持续强化AI领导层以应对Nvidia主导的AI芯片竞争格局。

Congratulations @realSharonZhou on your new role as AI Chief of Staff! This appointment reflects AMD's continued commitment to scaling our AI leadership, deepening strategic partnerships, and accelerating customer impact.

@amd ↗
美股

福特一季度交付下滑8.8%F系列跌16%

福特汽车2026年一季度整体交付量下降8.8%,旗舰车型F系列皮卡销量跌幅达16%,原因为关键铝制车身供应商去年遭遇火灾后产能持续受限。

Ford Q1 deliveries -8.8%; F-Series pickup -16%; aluminum body panel supplier fire constraining supply

供应链中断持续拖累福特核心盈利车型,F系列作为全美最畅销皮卡的深度下滑将对福特全年业绩预期产生重大影响,与行业整体面临的油价和需求不确定性形成叠加压力。

Ford's vehicle deliveries fell 8.8% in the first quarter, driven by a 16% decline in its top-selling F-Series pickup that continues to be constrained following fires last year at a key supplier of the truck's aluminum body panels

@business ↗
美股

SpaceX与沙特PIF洽谈50亿美元IPO锚定投资

SpaceX据报与沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金就2026年IPO进行谈判,沙特方面考虑认购50亿美元的锚定份额。

SpaceX in talks with Saudi PIF for $5B anchor stake in 2026 IPO

沙特主权财富基金50亿美元的锚定投资若落实,将成为SpaceX IPO的重要背书,彰显中东资本在全球科技投资中话语权的持续上升。

SpaceX has held talks with Saudi PIF for anchor investment in 2026 IPO, with the Saudi fund considering taking an anchor stake of $5 billion - Sources

@financialjuice ↗
地缘

特朗普解雇司法部长邦迪布兰奇接任代理

美国总统特朗普解雇司法部长帕姆·邦迪,任命托德·布兰奇出任代理司法部长,据报道原因为特朗普对邦迪处理爱泼斯坦相关司法文件方式不满。

Trump fires AG Pam Bondi; Todd Blanche named interim AG; reported trigger: dissatisfaction with Epstein files handling at DOJ

此次解雇延续了本届政府对司法部高层的持续重组,邦迪此前是特朗普忠实支持者;爱泼斯坦文件相关进展依然是触发人事变动的敏感政治导火索,多家主要媒体几乎同时报道。

President Donald Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday. Bondi's dismissal comes after reports that Trump was increasingly unhappy about her handling of Department of Justice files related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the DOJ's failure to

@cnbc ↗
Crypto

参议员提出修订版稳定币收益提案

参议员Tillis和Alsobrooks向加密公司和银行提交修订版稳定币收益提案,本周开始在行业内征求意见。

Revised stablecoin yield proposal from Sens. Tillis and Alsobrooks; crypto firms and banks reviewing this week

稳定币收益相关立法是美国加密监管框架的重要组成部分,此次修订版同时向银行业和加密原生机构征求意见,显示立法者试图在两个行业之间寻求平衡,最终框架将对稳定币发行人的竞争格局产生重大影响。

LATEST: 🚨 CRYPTO FIRMS AND BANKS TO REVIEW REVISED STABLECOIN YIELD PROPOSAL FROM SENS TILLIS AND ALSOBROOKS THIS WEEK

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

Coinbase X402支付协议获谷歌等三巨头背书

Coinbase旗下AI支付协议X402正式加入Linux基金会,获得谷歌、Stripe和AWS的联合支持。

Coinbase X402 AI payment protocol joins Linux Foundation; backed by Google, Stripe, AWS

X402的加入将加密原生支付协议纳入主流开源基础设施生态,三大科技及支付巨头的联合背书显著提升协议可信度,有望推动AI代理支付行业标准的形成。

NEW: COINBASE AI PAYMENT PROTOCOL X402 JOINS LINUX FOUNDATION WITH SUPPORT FROM GOOGLE, STRIPE, AND AWS

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

Zcash屏蔽交易量与算力同步创历史新高

Zcash网络屏蔽交易量、算力及算力分布均创历史新高,算力集中度问题显著改善(此前单一矿池曾超60%),多项技术升级正在推进中。

Zcash: shielded transactions ATH, hashrate ATH, hashrate distribution ATH; single-pool concentration reduced from 60%+; reduced block times in progress

多项基本面指标同步创历史新高显示Zcash正处于改善拐点;屏蔽交易ATH是隐私链在量子计算威胁背景下获得关注度提升的直接体现,算力去中心化的改善也降低了网络的单点风险。

another all time high in shielded zcash. so, now we have: - zec hashrate ATH & distribution ATH - more miners on the way - zec shielded ATH - the best quantum proofing for an L1 & privacy - reduced blocktimes and sync times + scaling work underway - new dev team backed by

@mert ↗
宏观

美国30年期房贷利率连涨五周至6.46%

美国30年期固定房贷利率连续第五周上涨,升至6.46%,为2025年9月以来最高,伊朗战争引发的债券收益率波动被指为主因。

30-yr fixed mortgage rate: 6.46%, 5th straight weekly rise, highest since Sep 2025; 2020s decade avg: 5.3%

利率持续攀升压制春季购房旺季,Chime数据显示3月消费者油费支出环比增25%,能源成本已开始挤压家庭可支配收入;历史对比看,当前利率虽低于2023年10月峰值7.79%,但显著高于本十年均值。

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.46% (highest since Sep 2025)

@charliebilello ↗
宏观

亚马逊向卖家加征3.5%燃油物流附加费

亚马逊宣布本月晚些时候对使用其配送服务的卖家征收3.5%燃油及物流附加费,加入多家航运公司因伊朗战争推高能源成本而涨价的队列。

Amazon: 3.5% 'fuel and logistics' surcharge on sellers using its shipping services, effective later April 2026

成本转嫁链条正式启动——油价冲击→物流成本上升→电商卖家承担→最终或传导至消费品终端价格,构成CPI上行的二阶驱动;加拿大最大炼油厂已因中东供应中断首次转向纽芬兰原油,供应链重组成本正在全球蔓延。

Amazon will start charging sellers who use its shipping services a 3.5% "fuel and logistics" surcharge later this month, joining the ranks of shipping companies raising prices as the war in Iran pushes oil prices higher.

@business ↗
宏观

蓝枭资本遭54亿美元赎回申请,美财政部召集监管谈话

私募信贷公司Blue Owl Capital收到54亿美元赎回申请,同日美国财政部召集监管机构就私募信贷风险进行专项会议。

Blue Owl Capital: $5.4B redemption requests (FT); US Treasury convened regulators on private credit risks (FT)

做空者Carson Block同步押注信贷ETF,预测AI失业冲击将引发比2020年更严重的流动性危机;Oaktree的Panossian警告软件行业疲软、流动性担忧与差劲的承销年份正共同扩大公开与非交易私募信贷工具间的估值鸿沟。

Private Credit firm Blue Owl Capital has been hit by $5.4 billion of redemption requests, per FT

@unusual_whales ↗
宏观

欧央行委员暗示下次利率变动方向向上

欧央行委员Villeroy表示欧元区下次利率变动大概率为加息,但尚无法预测时间表;美联储达拉斯主席Logan称伊朗战争同时制造通胀上行与就业走弱的双重风险。

ECB Villeroy: next rate move 'highly likely to be upwards'; Dallas Fed Logan: Iran war raises both inflation AND labor market weakness risks

欧央行此前宽松周期面临逆转压力,油价冲击令通胀预期重新上行;美联储则面临stagflation困境——战争既推升通胀又削弱增长,传统货币政策工具陷入两难,多位市场人士已公开警示滞胀风险。

🔴 ECB Villeroy: Next change in key interest rates is highly likely to be upwards.

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

OpenAI收购科技脱口秀TBPN

OpenAI宣布收购每日科技在线谈话节目TBPN,节目格式不变,继续每个工作日太平洋时间11时直播。

OpenAI acquires TBPN (daily tech talk show); show format unchanged; daily live 11am PT

这是OpenAI罕见的媒体内容资产收购,Bloomberg将其定性为OpenAI主导AI叙事话语权的战略举动;外界评论调侃此举可帮助OpenAI获取顶级科技嘉宾内容用于训练数据,或借此在AI议题的公共舆论中建立结构性优势。

OpenAI has acquired the online technology talk show TBPN, an unusual purchase for the artificial intelligence model developer aimed at driving the conversation around AI

@business ↗
AI / 科技

印度AI创业公司Sarvam AI接近完成3-3.5亿美元融资

印度本土AI创业公司Sarvam AI接近完成3亿至3.5亿美元新一轮融资,目标建立可与美中AI领导者竞争的国内主权玩家。

Sarvam AI (India): close to raising $300M–$350M

印度正积极扶持本土AI基础模型能力,此轮融资规模体现国际资本对AI主权赛道的关注;在美中AI对抗格局之外,印度作为第三极AI力量的轮廓逐渐清晰。

India's homegrown AI startup, Sarvam AI, is close to raising $300 million to $350 million as it seeks to build a domestic player that can compete with leaders from the US and China.

@business ↗
AI / 科技

Coinbase AI支付协议X402加入Linux基金会

Coinbase的AI支付协议X402正式加入Linux基金会,获得谷歌、Stripe和AWS联合背书支持。

Coinbase X402 AI payment protocol: joins Linux Foundation; backed by Google, Stripe, AWS

X402进入开源基金会标志着加密原生支付基础设施向主流企业生态融合,三大科技/支付巨头联合背书显著提升其在AI代理自主支付场景中的可信度和采用潜力。

NEW: COINBASE AI PAYMENT PROTOCOL X402 JOINS LINUX FOUNDATION WITH SUPPORT FROM GOOGLE, STRIPE, AND AWS

@scottmelker ↗
美股

标普500一季度Mag 7全线负收益,能源领跑

标普500指数2026年一季度中科技七巨头(Mag 7)全部录得负回报,能源、材料、必需消费品、公用事业及AI基础设施板块涨幅居前;道琼斯指数触及50,000点关口。

S&P 500 Q1 2026: Mag 7 all negative YTD; energy/materials/consumer staples/utilities/AI infra led; Dow hit 50,000; S&P 500 YTD: -4%

伊朗战争推动能源板块强势独立行情,大盘科技股承压创近年最大板块分化;SanDisk因AI内存存储概念成为Q1异类赢家,标普500全年累计下跌约4%,与年初Bessent预测的4-5%实际经济增长形成鲜明反差。

S&P 500 Q1 2026 Performance. High-growth tech stocks hurt the most. The Mag 7 faced negative YTD returns. The highest percentage YTD returns came from energy, materials, consumer staples, utilities, and AI infrastructure. The outlier is SanDisk, an AI memory storage company.

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股

大陆资源首家公开宣布伊朗战争期间扩产

大陆资源(Continental Resources)成为首家公开表示将在伊朗战争期间提升原油产量的美国主要石油生产商,波斯湾供应受阻已推动油价四周内上涨约50%。

Continental Resources: first major US oil producer to publicly announce output ramp-up amid Iran war; Baker Hughes US oil rig count: 411 (prev 414); total rigs: 548 (prev 552)

高油价正刺激美国本土产量扩张,但Baker Hughes最新钻机数据显示钻机总数小幅下降,短期供应响应能力有限;美国是否能填补波斯湾缺口成为未来油价走向的关键变量。

Continental is the first prominent US oil producer to say publicly that it plans to ramp up output amid the Iran war, which has crippled supplies from the Persian Gulf and sent crude futures soaring 50% in four weeks to more than $100 a bar

@business ↗
美股

花旗全球固定收益基金3月亏损8.2%

城堡对冲基金(Citadel)全球固定收益基金3月份下跌8.2%,为该公司主要策略中表现最差者,中东战争引发的全球市场震荡是主因。

Citadel Global Fixed Income Fund: -8.2% in March, worst performance among firm's major strategies

伊朗战争冲击波已深入机构级固定收益投资组合,Citadel此类顶级量化机构录得显著月度亏损,反映战争引发的利率与信用风险溢价重定价幅度超预期;私募信贷领域同期承压,整体金融体系压力传导路径清晰。

Citadel's Global Fixed Income Fund last month fell 8.2%, the worst performance among the hedge fund firm's major strategies, as war in the Middle East shook global markets

@business ↗
Crypto

CME三月加密交易量日均79.8亿美元同比增19%

CME集团报告2026年3月加密衍生品交易量同比增长19%,日均交易量达79.8亿美元。

CME crypto trading volume: $7.98B daily average in March 2026, +19% YoY

伊朗战争引发的宏观不确定性并未抑制机构加密衍生品需求,反而带来高波动率环境下的交易活跃度提升,印证机构级加密参与度在宏观逆风中逆势扩张。

Another milestone for crypto adoption. What do you think is driving the 19% growth in trading volume? CME Group reports 19% rise in crypto trading volume, hitting $7.98B daily average in March.

@cmegroup ↗
Crypto

IMF发文称代币化正重塑受监管金融体系

国际货币基金组织(IMF)正式发布声明称"代币化正在重塑受监管金融",成为对加密资产底层技术进行系统性背书的多边机构。

IMF statement: 'Tokenization is reshaping regulated finance'

IMF的正式背书为各国监管机构将代币化纳入主流金融监管框架提供政策依据,与Coinbase获OCC国家信托批准、X402协议进入Linux基金会形成多维证据链,共同指向加密金融机构化的系统性进展。

JUST IN: IMF SAYS 'TOKENIZATION IS RESHAPING REGULATED FINANCE'

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

SoFi推出融合法币与加密的商业银行服务

SoFi宣布在Mastercard支持下推出Big Business Banking服务,在单一受监管平台上整合法币与加密资产,面向企业客户。

SoFi: Big Business Banking combines fiat + crypto on single regulated platform; Mastercard support

SoFi此举与Coinbase获国家信托牌照时机高度吻合,进一步印证传统金融科技平台向加密整合入口转型的趋势;Mastercard背书为合规层面提供支撑,法币+加密+受监管三要素并存为行业提供新模板。

SOFI LAUNCHES BIG BUSINESS BANKING TO COMBINE FIAT AND CRYPTO ON A SINGLE REGULATED PLATFORM WITH SUPPORT FROM MASTERCARD

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

Zcash屏蔽交易与算力同步创历史新高

Zcash屏蔽交易量创历史新高,同期算力、矿工分布均达历史峰值,区块时间与同步时间已优化,新开发团队接管后生态持续改善。

Zcash: shielded transactions ATH, hashrate ATH, miner distribution ATH; reduced block times + sync times; new dev team

Zcash在算力去中心化和隐私使用指标上同步创高,支持者将其定位为具备量子抗性的L1隐私公链;此前困扰该网络的算力集中问题(单矿池曾超60%)已显著改善,技术基本面修复。

another all time high in shielded zcash. so, now we have: - zec hashrate ATH & distribution ATH - more miners on the way - zec shielded ATH - the best quantum proofing for an L1 & privacy - reduced blocktimes and sync times + scaling work underway - new dev team backed by

@mert ↗
宏观

亚马逊对卖家征收3.5%燃油附加费

亚马逊宣布本月起对使用其物流服务的卖家征收3.5%"燃油与物流"附加费,原因是伊朗战争推高能源价格,跟随多家航运公司涨价步伐。

Amazon 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge; effective April 2026; driven by Iran war energy costs

亚马逊将战争驱动的能源成本转嫁给第三方卖家,预计将进一步推高电商平台商品价格,形成二阶通胀传导效应。多家媒体同步证实,该附加费是伊朗冲突向实体经济渗透的最直接企业行为案例之一。

Amazon to add 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for sellers as Iran war drives up energy prices, per CNBC

@unusual_whales ↗
宏观

美国30年期抵押贷款利率连续第五周攀升至6.46%

受伊朗战争拖累,美国30年期抵押贷款利率连续第五周上行,当前利率6.46%,为2025年9月以来最高。

30-year mortgage rate 6.46% (highest since Sep 2025); 5th consecutive weekly increase

抵押贷款利率持续走高将进一步压制已疲软的美国房市,叠加能源价格冲击,消费者住房成本压力显著增加。历史数据显示2020年代平均利率为5.3%,当前利率已明显高于十年均值,距2023年峰值7.79%仍有距离,但上行趋势令人警惕。

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US… 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 5.3% --- All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65% 2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79% Today's Rate: 6.46% (highest since Sep 2025)

@charliebilello ↗
宏观

贝克休斯美国活跃油井降至411口

贝克休斯最新周度数据显示,美国活跃石油钻井数量为411口(前值414口),总钻井数为548口(前值552口),双双小幅下降。

Baker Hughes oil rig count 411 (prev 414); total rig count 548 (prev 552)

在油价飙升至2008年以来最高水平的背景下,美国活跃油井数量仍在下降,显示供应侧短期内难以快速响应价格信号,为油价高位持续提供结构性支撑。Continental已宣布计划加速增产,但行业整体反应滞后,供给缺口短期难以弥合。

US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Actual 411 (Forecast -, Previous 414) US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Actual 548 (Forecast -, Previous 552)

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

ChatGPT语音模式正式登陆Apple CarPlay

OpenAI宣布ChatGPT语音模式现已在Apple CarPlay上线,面向运行iOS 26.4及以上版本且支持CarPlay的iPhone用户推出。

ChatGPT voice mode in CarPlay; iOS 26.4+ required; rolling out now

此次整合使ChatGPT进入高频驾驶场景,与Siri及谷歌助手在车载AI交互市场展开直接竞争,是OpenAI布局日常高频使用场景、拓展消费者触点的重要步骤。

ChatGPT is now available in CarPlay. The voice mode you know, now available on-the-go. Rolling out to iPhone users running iOS 26.4+ where CarPlay is supported.

@openai ↗
AI / 科技

英伟达H100 GPU租赁费率回升至2024年Q3水平

根据SemiAnalysis数据,英伟达H100 GPU一年期合同租赁价格在过去数月内持续回升,已重回2024年第三季度的高位水平。

Nvidia H100 1-year contract rental cost back to Q3 2024 levels (SemiAnalysis)

H100算力租赁价格回升反映市场对AI基础设施需求的持续增长及供给侧的相对收紧,与AI推理和训练需求持续升温的趋势一致,对GPU云服务商和英伟达均构成正面价格信号。

The cost to rent Nvidia's $NVDA H100 GPUs for a 1-year contract has increased over the last couple months back to Q3 2024 levels - SemiAnalysis

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技

印度Sarvam AI接近完成3-3.5亿美元融资

印度本土AI初创公司Sarvam AI接近完成3亿至3.5亿美元融资,旨在打造能与美国和中国头部企业竞争的本土AI平台。

Sarvam AI raising $300M–$350M; India domestic AI national champion

Sarvam AI的大规模融资反映印度正在积极扶持本土AI国家队,以减少对美中AI巨头的依赖。此轮融资规模对非美中AI初创公司而言属于重量级,显示全球资本正在多极化布局AI赛道,AI地缘竞争向更多国家扩散。

India's homegrown AI startup, Sarvam AI, is close to raising $300 million to $350 million as it seeks to build a domestic player that can compete with leaders from the US and China.

@business ↗
美股

Continental宣布成为首家加速增产的美国主要油企

Continental成为首家公开宣布将在伊朗战争期间加速增产的美国主要石油生产商,此前四周内原油期货已累涨超50%并突破100美元/桶。

Continental first major US oil producer to publicly announce output ramp-up; crude futures +50% in 4 weeks, >$100/bbl

Continental的决定可能引发美国页岩油行业连锁反应,但考虑到本周贝克休斯钻井数据仍在下滑,大规模供给响应尚需时日。高油价环境下美国能源股有望受益,但增产时间窗口与地缘政治解决时间线的匹配存在不确定性。

Continental is the first prominent US oil producer to say publicly that it plans to ramp up output amid the Iran war, which has crippled supplies from the Persian Gulf and sent crude futures soaring 50% in four weeks to more than $100 a bar

@business ↗
美股

Coinbase获批稳定币业务关键监管资质

Coinbase在争取扩大稳定币业务的努力中通过了关键监管审查,进一步夯实其银行化布局。

Coinbase clears key regulatory hurdle; stablecoin business expansion

此次监管突破与CLARITY法案立法进程叠加,市场人士讨论Coinbase作为银行实体是否能在加密/银行监管辩论中扮演独特角色。若稳定币业务获批扩展,Coinbase有望成为连接传统金融和加密世界的核心基础设施节点。

If Coinbase is now a bank, can they settle the crypto/bank debate surrounding the CLARITY Act by negotiating both sides?

@scottmelker ↗
美股

SoFi推出整合法币与加密的商业银行平台

SoFi宣布推出Big Business Banking服务,在Mastercard支持下将法币和加密货币整合至单一受监管平台。

SoFi Big Business Banking; fiat + crypto on single regulated platform; Mastercard partnership

SoFi此举是传统金融科技公司进军加密业务的最新案例,Mastercard的参与赋予该平台重要的合规背书。与Coinbase的银行化布局形成互动,显示法币与加密融合的制度化进程正在加速,混合金融平台成为新竞争赛道。

SOFI LAUNCHES BIG BUSINESS BANKING TO COMBINE FIAT AND CRYPTO ON A SINGLE REGULATED PLATFORM WITH SUPPORT FROM MASTERCARD

@scottmelker ↗
地缘

逾40个美国盟友开会讨论霍尔木兹重开方案

超过40个美国盟友于4月2日召开会议讨论重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的方案;与此同时,特朗普继续向伊朗基础设施发出威胁,声称"伊朗最大的桥已被摧毁";乌克兰提出协助保障海峡安全。

40+ US allies meeting on Hormuz reopening; Trump: 'biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down'; Ukraine offers Hormuz security support; EU calls to scale up Aspides naval mission

盟友会议规模之大显示霍尔木兹危机已从双边冲突演变为全球性经济安全危机。乌克兰主动提出协助保障海峡安全,是本次危机中最出人意料的外交信号之一。欧盟呼吁扩大海上护卫任务规模,折射出地缘政治格局正在快速重组。

More than 40 US allies met Thursday to discuss plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in a signal to President Donald Trump of the deep concern across the international community about the crisis in the waterway

@business ↗
地缘

美众议院推出对华芯片设备出口限制法案

美国众议院正式提出对华芯片制造设备出口管制立法,重点针对来自荷兰和日本盟友的设备出口,参议院亦计划在数周内公布类似法案。

House chip tools export restriction bill unveiled; targeting Netherlands, Japan allies; Senate bill expected in coming weeks

此立法若通过将对阿斯麦(荷兰)、东京电子(日本)等设备商产生直接影响,是拜登政府以来对华半导体管制升级的延续。同时出台众参两院双轨立法显示两党对科技脱钩的高度共识,预计将引发盟友外交摩擦。

US lawmakers unveiled legislation that seeks to crack down on exports of chipmaking tools to China, especially from allies including the Netherlands and Japan

@business ↗
Crypto

CME加密交易量3月环比增19%至日均79.8亿美元

CME集团报告2026年3月加密货币交易量环比增长19%,日均交易量达79.8亿美元。

CME crypto trading volume +19% MoM; $7.98B daily average in March 2026

CME衍生品成交量持续增长印证机构资金对加密市场的参与深度不断提升。交易量增长与传统市场波动加剧同步出现,显示机构投资者正在利用加密衍生品进行对冲或寻找替代收益,加密市场机构化进程持续推进。

Another milestone for crypto adoption. What do you think is driving the 19% growth in trading volume? Explore our Crypto offerings ⬇️ [QT @Cointelegraph: 🔥 BIG: CME Group reports 19% rise in crypto trading volume, hitting $7.98B daily average in March.]

@cmegroup ↗
Crypto

Jupiter永续合约1.5亿美元JLP在12分钟内被清算

19家宣称"多样化策略"的金库运营商将全部资金路由至同一执行层(Drift),导致约1.5亿美元JLP存款在12分钟内被清算蒸发,占Jupiter永续合约流动性池的15-20%,平台周度交易量随后下滑40%。

$150M JLP liquidated in 12 minutes; 15-20% of Jupiter perp pool wiped; Jupiter perps volume -40% WoW; 19 vault operators all routed through Drift

此次事件揭示DeFi生态中"多样化分散风险"叙事的系统性虚假性——19个表面独立的金库实质上都集中于同一执行层,形成单点故障。Jupiter永续合约流动性骤降对整个Solana DeFi生态造成冲击,事件也再度引发对DeFi金库透明度与尽职调查标准的质疑。

19 vault operators marketed 'diversified strategies' and every single one routed through drift as their execution layer. $150m in JLP deposits just got vaporized. that's 15-20% of jupiter's entire perp liquidity pool gone in 12 minutes. jupiter perps volume already down 40% week

@aixbt_agent ↗
Crypto

美国当局没收Ledger硬件钱包钓鱼攻击60万美元加密资产

美国当局没收了与针对Ledger硬件钱包用户钓鱼攻击相关的约60万美元加密资产。

US authorities seize $600K crypto; Ledger hardware wallet phishing attack; 'Operation'-linked seizure

此案表明即使使用硬件钱包也无法完全免疫钓鱼攻击,攻击向量已从软件层转移至社会工程学层面。币安前CEO赵长鹏对此表示震惊,称不知道硬件钱包存在此类攻击风险,其发声大幅提升了事件传播度并凸显社区认知盲区。

Didn't know phishing attacks are possible with a hardware wallet. Stay SAFU! [QT @Cointelegraph: 🚨 UPDATE: US Authorities seize $600K in crypto linked to hardware wallet phishing attack targeting Ledger users.]

@cz_binance ↗
Crypto

IMF声明代币化正在重塑受监管金融体系

国际货币基金组织发表声明,明确指出代币化正在重塑受监管金融领域。

IMF: 'tokenization is reshaping regulated finance'

IMF对代币化的明确背书是机构态度转向的重要信号,历史上IMF在加密领域态度保守。此声明与Coinbase获得稳定币监管批准、SoFi整合加密业务等动态形成共振,显示传统金融监管机构正在系统性地接受数字资产基础设施化的趋势。

JUST IN: IMF SAYS "TOKENIZATION IS RESHAPING REGULATED FINANCE"

@scottmelker ↗
宏观

美联储威廉斯:能源冲击尚未进入经济数据

纽约联储主席威廉斯表示能源价格上涨目前仅体现在汽油价格而非经济数据中,传导至通胀和就业市场需数月至一年,货币政策目前处于合适位置,但不确定性与风险已双向上升。

Williams: 'months or a year for energy prices to work through economy'; monetary policy 'well positioned'; risks 'increased in both directions'; 'inflation will show up in statistics as time goes on'

威廉斯的表态暗示美联储不会因本轮油价冲击仓促行动,为市场提供了短期政策稳定预期;但其同步承认通胀将随时间反映在数据中,并特别提及私人信贷市场值得密切关注,显示对金融稳定的警惕性上升。

Fed's Williams: It takes months or a year for energy prices to work through the economy.

@financialjuice ↗
宏观

亚马逊对卖家加收3.5%燃油附加费

亚马逊宣布本月起对使用其物流服务的卖家征收3.5%燃油及物流附加费,理由是伊朗战争推高能源成本。

Amazon 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for FBA sellers; effective later in April 2026

亚马逊是战争能源成本向下游零售基础设施传导的首个重要案例,将直接影响数百万卖家成本结构;抵岸商品价格上涨的二次传导效应将进一步强化通胀压力,是观察战争经济影响的早期信号。

Amazon $AMZN will start charging sellers who use its shipping services a 3.5% "fuel and logistics" surcharge later this month - Bloomberg

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技

AI初创Medvi以2万美元启动年销售额直指18亿

AI驱动的GLP-1处方平台Medvi由两名员工以2万美元启动资金创建,目前年销售额运行率已接近18亿美元,被视为首批vibe-coded十亿美元级公司之一。

Medvi: $20K startup cost, 2 employees, on track for $1.8B annual revenue; AI-powered GLP-1 startup

gdb和nic_carter将Medvi视为AI赋能创业者实现超轻量级高增长的典型案例,折射出医疗科技与AI结合在GLP-1减重药领域的巨大市场空间;这一数据也成为'AI重新定义创业人效比'叙事的最强经验证据之一。

BREAKING: AI-powered GLP-1 startup Medvi — built with $20,000 & two employees — is now on track for $1,800,000,000.00 in annual sales.

@polymarket ↗
AI / 科技

微软Copilot转向独立付费销售模式

微软已将AI销售策略从随软件套件免费捆绑转变为主动单独销售Copilot付费订阅,标志着其AI商业化路径的重要转变。

Microsoft pivots Copilot from free software bundle inclusion to standalone paid product; $MSFT

此举表明微软认为Copilot已具备足够的独立商业价值,无需再依赖捆绑销售驱动采用;但策略转变意味着将直接面对企业付费意愿考验,续订率和席位扩张数据将成为下季度财报的关键观测点。

Microsoft has pivoted its AI sales strategy to focus on selling Copilot rather than offering it for free as part of a software bundle. $MSFT

@financialjuice ↗
AI / 科技

英伟达H100算力租用价格回升至2024年Q3水平

据SemiAnalysis数据,英伟达H100 GPU一年期合约租用成本在过去数月内持续回升,已恢复至2024年第三季度水平。

Nvidia H100 GPU 1-year contract rental cost back to Q3 2024 levels; per SemiAnalysis

H100租用价格的回升反映AI算力需求再度趋紧,可能预示下一轮GPU供应紧张周期开启;对云计算提供商成本端和AI初创公司运营预算均有直接影响,需关注是否触发新一轮资本开支扩张。

The cost to rent Nvidia's $NVDA H100 GPUs for a 1-year contract has increased over the last couple months back to Q3 2024 levels - SemiAnalysis

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股

康蒂南托石油成为首家宣布增产的主要美国油商

康蒂南托(Continental)成为首家公开宣布将在伊朗战争背景下增产的主要美国油气生产商,此前波斯湾供应受阻已推动原油期货4周内涨逾50%并突破100美元。

Continental first prominent US oil producer to publicly announce output ramp-up; crude futures +50% in 4 weeks, >$100/bbl

Continental的增产表态是美国页岩油行业对高油价的首个正式公开响应;若更多生产商跟进,美国本土增量将成为压制油价的关键变量,但钻井投产周期意味着短期内难以弥补供应缺口。

Continental is the first prominent US oil producer to say publicly that it plans to ramp up output amid the Iran war, which has crippled supplies from the Persian Gulf and sent crude futures soaring 50% in four weeks to more than $100 a bar

@business ↗
美股

摩根士丹利中国A股基金将赎回履行比例限至23.3%

摩根士丹利中国A股基金宣布限制赎回,仅计划履行23.3%的赎回申请份额。

Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund limits redemptions to 23.3% of requested shares; $MS

23.3%的低履行比例暗示该基金面临严重的流动性压力,可能反映外资持续从A股撤离;这是观察外资中国权益敞口的重要警示信号,与巴西大盘股同期大量吸引外资形成鲜明对比。

Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund limits redemptions, intending to fulfil 23.3% of shares. $MS

@financialjuice ↗
美股

SoFi推出融合法币与加密的受监管企业银行平台

SoFi宣布推出Big Business Banking服务,将法定货币与加密资产整合于单一受监管平台,获Mastercard支持。

SoFi Big Business Banking: combines fiat and crypto on single regulated platform; Mastercard backing

SoFi此举是传统金融机构将加密资产整合进受监管银行服务的最新案例,Mastercard背书增添合规可信度;在CLARITY法案立法讨论及Coinbase银行化背景下,此举具有重要的行业标杆意义。

SOFI LAUNCHES BIG BUSINESS BANKING TO COMBINE FIAT AND CRYPTO ON A SINGLE REGULATED PLATFORM WITH SUPPORT FROM MASTERCARD

@scottmelker ↗
地缘

司法部长帕姆·邦迪辞职,布兰奇出任代理部长

美国司法部长帕姆·邦迪宣布离任,副司法部长托德·布兰奇将接任代理司法部长,特朗普在Truth Social发文表彰邦迪服务逾一年。

AG Pam Bondi resigns; Deputy AG Todd Blanche becomes acting AG; Blanche previously served as Trump's personal defense attorney

邦迪的离任结束了一段动荡任期,布兰奇此前曾是特朗普个人辩护律师,其接任代理司法部长进一步压缩了司法部与总统之间的距离;此时正值伊朗战争和多项重大政策推进关键节点,领导层换届的时机引发广泛关注。

President Donald Trump announced Thursday that Pam Bondi is stepping down as attorney general. "Pam Bondi is a Great American Patriot and a loyal friend, who faithfully served as my Attorney General over the past year," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

@newshour ↗
Crypto

Coinbase通过关键监管审批强化稳定币业务

Coinbase清除了其稳定币业务拓展的关键监管障碍,市场同步讨论Coinbase是否已实质取得银行地位及其对CLARITY法案谈判格局的潜在影响。

Coinbase clears key regulatory hurdle for stablecoin business; CLARITY Act debate; potential bank status

Coinbase的监管突破在CLARITY法案立法推进背景下意义重大;scottmelker提出若Coinbase正式取得银行牌照,其可能同时代表加密与银行两侧展开谈判,从而重塑整个法案的博弈格局。

If Coinbase is now a bank, can they settle the crypto/bank debate surrounding the CLARITY Act by negotiating both sides?

@scottmelker ↗
Crypto

美当局没收60万美元Ledger钓鱼攻击加密赃款

美国当局没收与针对Ledger硬件钱包用户网络钓鱼攻击相关的60万美元加密资产,事件揭示硬件钱包用户同样面临社会工程学攻击风险。

US authorities seize $600K in crypto linked to hardware wallet phishing attack targeting Ledger users

此案揭示即使使用冷钱包也无法完全规避网络钓鱼攻击,CZ对此发出安全警示;对于长期强调冷存储安全性的加密社区,这一案例具有重要的安全教育意义,并引发外界对硬件钱包攻击面的重新审视。

Didn't know phishing attacks are possible with a hardware wallet. Stay SAFU!

@cz_binance ↗
宏观

3月消费汽油支出环比升25%,气价触4美元

Chime CEO克里斯·布里特透露,消费者3月汽油支出较2月增加25%;美国汽油价格已触及4美元/加仑关口;美国投资级债券基金遭遇近一年来最大单周资金流出。

Gas spending +25% MoM in March (Chime CEO); gas prices at $4/gallon; IG bond funds largest weekly outflows in ~1 year

能源冲击已开始在实体消费层面显现,但Chime CEO同时表示消费者整体仍健康;投资级信用市场资金外流则反映机构层面的宏观风险规避情绪升温,与股市的相对韧性形成分歧。

Consumers spent 25% more on gas in March than in February, says Chime CEO Chris Britt. But he says the fintech company still sees a healthy consumer

@bloombergtv ↗
宏观

抵押贷款利率连续第五周上行

美国抵押贷款利率连续第五周攀升,伊朗战争持续压制美国住房市场,据《纽约时报》报道。

Mortgage rates: 5th consecutive weekly increase; war cited as driver per NYT

持续上行的抵押贷款利率正在将战争的金融冲击从能源和大宗商品传导至住房这一美国家庭最重要的资产负债表,但目前尚无量化数据说明成交量或房价跌幅。

Mortgage rates climbed for the fifth straight week as the war in Iran weighed on the US housing market, per NYT

@unusual_whales ↗
AI / 科技

微软Copilot转向付费销售,Q1目标超额完成

微软回应华尔街反馈,将AI销售策略从免费捆绑软件包转向独立付费销售Copilot;商业业务负责人Judson Althoff称公司在截至3月的季度中实现了"宏大目标"。

Microsoft pivots Copilot from bundled-free to paid standalone; Q1 'audacious goals' hit (Judson Althoff, Bloomberg)

此次战略转向被解读为微软承认此前"免费赠送"策略未能有效转化为可计量收入,转为付费模式将使Copilot贡献更清晰地体现在财务报表中;分析师认为这有助于消除市场对AI变现进展的疑虑,但也存在客户接受度的不确定性。

Microsoft's $MSFT Commercial Business leader Judson Althoff told employees Company leadership set and essentially hit "some pretty big audacious goals" for selling Copilot in the quarter that ended in March - Bloomberg

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技

AI生成漏洞报告激增,Linux内核安全名单每周收到10+条

Linux内核安全邮件列表中AI生成的"slop"漏洞报告激增,两年前每周2-3条,去年上升至每周约10条,近期继续增加,被认为将对部分开源项目构成生存威胁。

Kernel security reports: 2-3/week (2 years ago) → ~10/week (past year), driven by AI-generated submissions

这一现象揭示AI工具滥用对开源基础设施维护者造成的隐性成本——大量低质量AI生成报告稀释了真实漏洞的处理优先级,可能导致真正关键的安全问题被淹没;同时也暴露出开源社区对AI辅助安全研究尚无有效过滤机制。

Prediction: This is gonna kill some oss projects. "On the kernel security list we've seen a huge bump of reports. We were between 2 and 3 per week maybe two years ago, then reached probably 10 a week over the last year with the only difference being only AI slop, and now since

@steipete ↗
AI / 科技

谷歌Gemini API新增两个服务层级

谷歌为Gemini API新增两个服务层级,扩展开发者接入选项。

Google Gemini API: 2 new service tiers added

Google: Added two new service tiers to the Gemini API. $GOOGL

@financialjuice ↗
美股

摩根大通纽约裁员曼哈顿降至2.6万人,德州增至3.3万

摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在Hill and Valley论坛披露:公司曼哈顿员工从其加入时的35,000人降至26,000人;德州员工从11,000人增至33,000人。

JPMorgan: Manhattan headcount 35K→26K; Texas 11K→33K (Jamie Dimon, Hill and Valley Forum)

戴蒙的数据清晰量化了大型金融机构从纽约向低税州迁移的趋势;德州员工数量已超过曼哈顿,标志着金融业地理重心的结构性转移,对纽约商业地产及地方财政具有长期影响。

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just said at the Hill and Valley forum: "Our head count in Manhattan when I got to JPMorgan was 35,000 and now is 26,000. Our head count in Texas started at 11,000, now it's 33,000."

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股

博通宣布新任CFO,来自Alphabet高管

博通(Broadcom)宣布任命来自Alphabet的高管Amie Thuener为公司下一任首席财务官。

Broadcom CFO: Amie Thuener (from Alphabet)

从大型科技公司引入具有AI/云计算背景的CFO人选,被视为博通在战略转型期强化资本运作能力的举措;Alphabet背景的高管带来的科技行业估值和投资者关系经验,或有助于博通在AI芯片叙事中争取更高估值倍数。

Broadcom, one of the most valuable publicly traded semiconductor companies, named Alphabet executive Amie Thuener as its next CFO

@business ↗
Crypto

Coinbase通过稳定币业务关键监管审批

Coinbase在拓展稳定币业务的过程中通过了关键监管审批。

Coinbase clears key regulatory hurdle for stablecoin business (CNBC)

此次监管放行被视为加密货币行业在美国监管环境改善背景下的重要里程碑;稳定币业务是Coinbase多元化收入的战略支柱,审批通过将使其在与PayPal、Circle等稳定币发行商的竞争中取得合规先机。

Coinbase clears key regulatory hurdle in bid to bolster its stablecoin business

@cnbc ↗
Crypto

谷歌量子研究引发中本聪比特币地址安全疑虑

谷歌与多名学术研究人员联合发布的报告获广泛关注,引发外界对中本聪(Satoshi)比特币地址安全性的疑问。

Google + academic researchers report raises questions about Satoshi's Bitcoin (Bloomberg)

报告核心担忧可能指向量子计算对早期P2PK格式比特币地址的潜在威胁,中本聪持有的约100万枚BTC使用的正是这类暴露公钥的旧格式;若量子计算威胁被坐实,将引发比特币网络升级必要性的深层辩论,但目前报告细节尚未完全披露。

A widely viewed report released this week by Google and academic researchers is raising questions about Satoshi's Bitcoin.

@business ↗
Crypto

Polymarket成为西甲联赛独家预测市场合作伙伴

Polymarket宣布成为西甲(LALIGA)独家预测市场合作伙伴,为首个与预测市场达成合作的欧洲主要足球联赛;皇家马德里和巴塞罗那的官方赛事合约现已在Polymarket独家上线。

Polymarket × LALIGA: exclusive prediction market partner; Real Madrid & FC Barcelona contracts live; first major European soccer league deal

此次合作标志着预测市场从加密原生场景向主流体育娱乐渠道的重要跨越;LALIGA的背书将为Polymarket带来非加密用户群,同时也是预测市场合规化、主流化进程中的标志性事件,可能引发其他欧洲联赛效仿。

We're honored to be named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of LALIGA — the 1st major European soccer league to strike a deal with prediction markets. The official event contracts for teams like Real Madrid & FC Barcelona now live exclusively on Polymarket.

@polymarket ↗
宏观

美国家庭股票持仓占比创历史新高

美国家庭股票投资占总净财富比例升至25.63%,超越2000年互联网泡沫峰值19.56%和1968年高点22.01%,为有记录以来最高

US household equities = 25.63% of net worth; surpasses Dot-Com peak 19.56% (2000) and 1968 high 22.01%

该指标超越此前所有历史峰值,表明美国家庭资产高度集中于股市,系统性脆弱性显著上升。在战争与高油价背景下,任何市场回调的财富效应将尤为剧烈。

US household exposure to the stock market has never been higher: Equities now make up 25.63% of total US household net worth, the highest since data began in the 1940s. This surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of 19.56% and the 1968 high of 22.01%.

@kobeissiletter ↗
宏观

债券交易员看空情绪降至10年低点

BMO调查显示仅24%债券交易员认为10年期美债收益率下一个15bp变动方向向上,为2010年11月以来最低,多数认为油价上涨是增长冲击而非通胀信号

BMO survey: 24% see next 15bp move higher in 10Y yields (lowest since Nov 2010)

债市参与者在创纪录油价下反而更偏看多债券,与通常的通胀逻辑相悖。主流解读是高油价更多压制增长、推动避险需求,而非引发通胀预期重燃。

Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow's jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the oil-price surge as being a hit to growth more than inflationary.

@lisaabramowicz1 ↗
宏观

美国政府职位空缺降至近五年低位

2月美国政府职位空缺减少5.1万个至70.1万个,为2020年12月以来第二低,较2022年峰值累计降幅达52.4万

Government job openings -51,000 in Feb to 701,000; 2nd-lowest since Dec 2020; -524,000 from 2022 peak

政府职位空缺收缩至疫情前水平,与DOGE削减政府规模的政策方向一致,表明公共部门劳动力市场正经历结构性收缩而非周期性波动。

US government job openings dropped -51,000 in February, to 701,000, the 2nd-lowest since December 2020. Since the 2022 peak, available vacancies in the government have dropped -524,000 and are now in-line with the pre-pandemic levels.

@kobeissiletter ↗
AI / 科技

微软Copilot商业销售完成季度大目标

微软商业业务负责人贾德森·奥尔托夫告知员工,公司在截至2026年3月的季度内基本达成Copilot销售的"大胆目标"

Microsoft Copilot: 'pretty big audacious goals' hit for quarter ended March 2026 (Bloomberg)

此消息在财报季前发出,暗示微软商业AI变现正步入正轨,市场将密切关注即将公布的正式财报中Copilot ARR等具体数据。

Microsoft's $MSFT Commercial Business leader Judson Althoff told employees Company leadership set and essentially hit 'some pretty big audacious goals' for selling Copilot in the quarter that ended in March - Bloomberg

@stockmktnewz ↗
AI / 科技

ChatGPT全球用户规模达8亿

ChatGPT全球用户规模达到8亿

ChatGPT reaches 800M users

用户规模持续快速增长,强化了OpenAI在消费级AI领域的主导地位,也为其收购媒体资产和拓展商业变现提供了规模基础。

Opinion: ChatGPT reaches 800M. The intimacy experiment is starting.

@thenextweb ↗
AI / 科技

首个AI驱动单人十亿美元公司诞生

Sam Altman确认其2024年预测兑现:首个由单人创办、AI驱动的十亿美元公司出现,该公司为医疗业务而非纯科技公司

First solo-founder $1B AI company confirmed by Sam Altman (via NYT email); it's a medical business

奥特曼在给《纽约时报》的邮件中称"想见见这位创始人",并指出这"没有AI是不可想象的"。该案例验证了AI赋能个人创业者突破规模天花板的范式转变,且意外地发生在医疗而非科技领域。

You can really just do things now. [QT @TheRundownAI: Sam Altman predicted in 2024 that a one-person billion-dollar company 'would have been unimaginable without A.I., and now it will happen.' He just emailed the NYT saying he won a bet with tech CEO friends over when it would arrive, and that he 'would like to meet the guy.']

@beffjezos ↗
美股

戴蒙披露摩根大通人员从纽约迁往德州

摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在Hill and Valley论坛披露,公司曼哈顿员工人数从3.5万降至2.6万,德克萨斯州从1.1万增至3.3万

JPMorgan: Manhattan headcount 35,000→26,000 (-26%); Texas: 11,000→33,000 (+200%)

戴蒙公开数据量化了金融业从纽约向德州迁移的规模,德州员工总数已超过曼哈顿,体现了企业持续推进的地理套利战略。

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just said at the Hill and Valley forum: 'Our head count in Manhattan when I got to JPMorgan was 35,000 and now is 26,000. Our head count in Texas started at 11,000, now it's 33,000.'

@stockmktnewz ↗
美股

联合航空上调托运行李费10美元

联合航空因燃油价格持续攀升,将托运行李收费上调10美元

United Airlines checked bag fee +$10 due to rising fuel costs

油价突破历史高位迅速传导至航空业成本端,联合航空率先调价,标志着战时能源冲击开始对消费者终端价格产生实质影响,预计其他航空公司将跟进。

United Airlines hikes checked bag fee by $10 as fuel prices continue to climb

@cnbc ↗
美股

博通任命Alphabet高管出任新CFO

博通任命Alphabet高管阿米·图纳(Amie Thuener)担任下一任首席财务官

Broadcom named Alphabet executive Amie Thuener as next CFO

从大型科技公司引进CFO,显示博通在AI芯片领域快速扩张背景下对资本市场运营能力的重视。

Broadcom, one of the most valuable publicly traded semiconductor companies, named Alphabet executive Amie Thuener as its next CFO

@business ↗
地缘

伊朗革命卫队虚假声索遭美军逐一否认

伊朗革命卫队声称击落美军战机(霍尔木兹岛上空)并打击迪拜Oracle数据中心,美国中央司令部否认称所有美军飞机均安全,指出此类虚假声索已达至少六次

IRGC claims: downed US jet over Qeshm/Hormuz + struck Oracle Dubai data center; CENTCOM: all US aircraft accounted for; IRGC false claims 'at least half a dozen times'

伊革卫队的声索战已成持续性信息战组成部分,历史记录显示其有系统性夸大战果倾向。Oracle数据中心声索即便为虚假,也对云服务市场造成短期恐慌,凸显信息战对商业环境的附带影响。

🚫 CLAIM: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it downed an 'enemy' fighter jet over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. ✅ FACT: All U.S. fighter aircraft are accounted for. Iran's IRGC has made the same false claim at least half a dozen times.

@centcom ↗
Crypto

谷歌量子研究对中本聪比特币安全性提出质疑

谷歌与学术研究人员联合发布广受关注的报告,对中本聪比特币地址的安全性提出疑问

Google + academic researchers 'widely viewed report' questions security of Satoshi's Bitcoin

量子计算对比特币早期未动用地址的潜在威胁再次引发市场关注,该报告被描述为本周广泛流传的研究。这与近期其他AI安全事件同周发生,加剧了加密社区对技术安全边界的整体担忧情绪。

A widely viewed report released this week by Google and academic researchers is raising questions about Satoshi's Bitcoin.

@business ↗
Crypto

Drift遭黑客攻击引发Solana多签透明化

Solana DeFi协议Drift遭遇黑客攻击,社区随即推出多签仪表板,展示主要协议多签地址、批准阈值及成员列表

Drift hack; new Solana DeFi Multisig Dashboard tracking approval thresholds, signers across major protocols; endorsed by Solana co-founder toly

Drift黑客事件暴露了Solana DeFi多签安全基础设施的透明度不足,社区响应迅速以开源工具填补信息空白。Solana联创toly的转发为该工具提供了背书,将安全透明化推向链上优先原则。

Everything is onchain [QT @gumsays: Due to the Drift hack, I just made this Solana DeFi Multisig Dashboard → Multisig Addresses → Approval Threshold → List of Multisig Members → Link to Docs of each protocol]

@toly ↗